A distribution dynamics approach to regional income convergence in reunified Germany

In this paper, we present an empirical study of per capita income convergence across German labour market regions during 1992 to 2002 using nonparametric techniques. We find clear evidence for convergence during the period we study, i.e. that regions that were poor in 1992 have increased their relative incomes in 2002. A special feature of our approach is that it allows to make predictions about the long-run distribution of regional incomes. We predict a persistent inequality among German regions. This result is especially important with respect to the massive regional policy expenditures taken in the last decade. According to our analysis it is unlikely that German policy will prevent polarization in the regional income distribution even if transers and subsidies will be continued in a comparable magnitude. Consequently, we argue that regional policy programs in Germany do not achieve their aim, and therefore need to be reviewed.

A distribution dynamics approach to regional GDP convergence in reunified Germany

This paper presents an empirical study of GDP per worker (and per capita) convergence across German labour market regions during 1992 to 2002 using nonparametric techniques. There is evidence for a tendency towards convergence during the observed period, i.e. regions that were less productive in 1992 (East-German regions) established a higher relative GDP in 2002. It is an advantage of our approach that it allows to make predictions about the long run distribution of regional production. We predict a persistent inequality among German regions. This result implies that the substantial regional policy expenditures made by the German government and the EU will not achieve their aim of equalisation, and need therefore to be critically reviewed.regional convergence, distribution dynamics, nonparametric econometrics, stochastic kernel, regional policy

Risk Sharing and Commuting Among US Federal States

Financial markets provide imperfect insurance of labor income risk. However, workers can partly insure against labor market risk by commuting to adjacent regions. Since commuters own wage claims to output produced in adjacent regions, the business cycle in the neighborhood becomes a relevant risk factor at the regional level. In our empirical analysis for US states, we show this effect to be important. State-specific consumption comoves with business cycle shocks that hit adjacent states, in particular if a state is integrated by commuter flows. This labor market perspective on regional risk sharing complements previous studies that investigated risk sharing through financial markets.risk sharing, consumption smoothing, commuting, labor market risk

A Distribution Dynamics Approach to Regional GDP Convergence in Unified Germany

This paper uses nonparametric techniques to study GDP convergence across German labor market regions and counties during the period 1992-2004. The main result is that regional convergence in unified Germany has been substantial. In the first years after German unification the distribution of GDP has been characterized by a pronounced bimodality. The dispersion of the GDP distribution has become substantially smaller over time. Although some bimodality remains in most recent years, this bimodality is weak in comparison to previous years. Nevertheless, disparities among regions located in the Eastern and Western part of the country are still apparent.regional convergence, distribution dynamics, nonparametric econometrics, stochastic kernel

Household Labor Supply and Home Services in a General-Equilibrium Model with Heterogeneous Agents

We propose a new explanation for differences and changes in labor supply by gender and marital status, and in particular for the increase in married women's labor supply over time. We argue that this increase as well as the relative constancy of other groups' hours are optimal reactions to outsourcing labor in home production becoming more attractive to households over time. To investigate this hypothesis, we incorporate heterogeneous agents into a household model of labor supply and allow agents to trade home labor. This model can generate the observed patterns in US labor supply by gender and marital status as a reaction to declining frictions on the market for home services. We provide an accounting exercise to highlight the role of alternative explanations for the rise in hours in a model where home labor is tradable.labor supply, gender, home production, heterogeneity

On the Dynamics of Interstate Migration: Migration Costs and Self-Selection

This paper develops a tractable dynamic microeconomic model of migration decisions that is aggregated to describe the behavior of interregional migration. Our structural approach allows us to deal with dynamic self-selection problems that arise from the endogeneity of location choice and the persistency of migration incentives. Keeping track of the distribution of migration incentives over time has important consequences, because the dynamics of this distribution influences the estimation of structural parameters, such as migration costs. For US interstate migration, we obtain a cost estimate of somewhat less than one-half of an average annual household income. This is substantially less than the migration costs estimated by previous studies. We attribute this di¤erence to the treatment of the dynamic self-selection problem. --Dynamic self-selection,migration,indirect inference

Assortative Mating and Female Labor Supply

This paper investigates the pattern of wives' hours disaggregated by the husband's wage decile. In the US, this pattern has changed from downward-sloping to hump-shaped. We show that this development can be explained within a standard household model of labor supply when taking into account trends in assortative mating. We develop a model in which assortative mating determines the wage ratios within individual couples and thus the efficient time allocation of spouses. The economy-wide pattern of wives’ hours by the husband's wage is downward-sloping for low degrees, hump-shaped for medium degrees, and upward-sloping for high degrees of assortative mating. A quantitative analysis of our model suggests that changes in the gender wage gap are responsible for the overall increase in hours worked by wives. By contrast, the fact that wives married to high-wage men experienced the most pronounced increase is a result of trends in assortative mating.female labor supply, assortative mating, gender wage gap

A generalized options approach to aggregate migration with an application to US federal states

This paper develops a tractable dynamic microeconomic model of migration decisions that is aggregated to describe the behavior of interregional migration. Our structural approach allows to deal with dynamic self-selection problems that arises from the endogeneity of location choice and the persistency of migration incentives. Keeping track of the distribution dynamics of migration incentives has important consequences, because these dynamics influences the estimation of structural parameters, such as migration costs. For US interstate migration, we obtain a cost estimate of approximately two average annual household incomes. This is at most half of the migration cost estimates reported in previous studies. We attribute this difference to the treatment of the self selection problemSelf selection, migration, indirect inference, dynamic optimization

On the Dynamics of Interstate Migration: Migration Costs and Self-Selection

This paper develops a tractable dynamic microeconomic model of migration decisions that is aggregated to describe the behavior of interregional migration. Our structural approach allows us to deal with dynamic self-selection problems that arise from the endogeneity of location choice and the persistency of migration incentives. Keeping track of the distribution of migration incentives over time has important consequences for the econometrical treatment, because the dynamics of this distribution influences the estimation of structural parameters, such as migration costs. For US interstate migration, we obtain a cost estimate of less than one-half of an average annual household income. This is substantially smaller than the migration costs estimated by previous studies. We attribute this difference to the treatment of the dynamic self-selection problem.dynamic self-selection, migration, indirect inference

The Life-Cycle and the Business-Cycle of Wage Risk: A Cross-Country Comparison

This paper provides a cross-country comparison of life-cycle and business-cycle fluctuations in the dispersion of household-level wage innovations. We draw our inference from household panel data sets for the US, the UK, and Germany. First, we find that household characteristics explain about 25% of the dispersion in wages within an age group in all three countries. Second, the cross-sectional variance of wages is almost linearly increasing in household age in all three countries, but with increments being smaller in the European data. Third, we find that wage risk is procyclical in Germany while it is countercyclical in the US and acyclical in the UK, pointing towards labor market institutions being pivotal in determining the cyclical properties of labor market risk.business cycle, uncertainty fluctuations, life-cycle risk, heterogeneity, wages