Potential of Interplanetary Torques and Solar Modulation for Triggering Terrestrial Atmospheric and Lithospheric Events

The Sun is forced into an orbit around the barycenter of the solar system because of the changing mass distribution of the planets. Solar-planetary-lunar dynamic relationships may form a new basis for understanding and predicting cyclic solar forcing functions on the Earth's climate.Comment: Invited Paper at the Fourth UN/ESA Workshop on Basic Space Science, Cairo, Egypt, July 1994. 7 pages LaTeX. Accepted for publication in the journal Earth, Moon, and Planet

Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North-South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle~24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874-2006, (Javaraiah, MNRAS, 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the Sun's northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of -1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0-10 deg latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112 + or - 13 and 74 + or -10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that in case of (1), the north-south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103 + or -10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north-south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87 + or - 7 for the amplitude of cycle 24.Comment: 21 pages, 7 figures, Published in Solar Physics 252, 419-439 (2008

Quaternary development of resilient reefs on the subsiding kimberley continental margin, Northwest Australia

The Kimberley region in remote northwest Australia has poorly known reef systems of two types; coastal fringing reefs and atoll-like shelf-edge reefs. As a major geomorphic feature (from 12ºS to 18ºS) situated along a subsiding continental margin, the shelf edge reefs are in a tropical realm with warm temperatures, relatively low salinity, clear low nutrient waters lacking sediment input, and Indo-West Pacific corals of moderate diversity. Seismic architecture of the Rowley Shoals reveals that differential pre-Holocene subsidence and relative elevation of the pre-Holocene substrate have controlled lagoon sediment infill and reef morphology, forming an evolutionary series reflecting differential accommodation in three otherwise similar reef systems.The Holocene core described for North Scott Reef confirms previous seismic interpretations, and provides a rare ocean-facing reef record. It demonstrates that the Indo-Pacific reef growth phase (RG111) developed during moderate rates of sea level rise of 10 mm/year from 11 to about 7-6.5 ka BP until sea level stabilization, filling the available 27 m of pre-Holocene accommodation. Despite the medium to high hydrodynamic energy imposed by the 4m tides, swell waves and cyclones the reef-building communities represent relatively low-wave energy settings due to their southeast facing and protection afforded by the proximity of the South Reef platform. This study demonstrates the resilience of reefs on the subsiding margin whilst linking Holocene reef morphology to the relative amount of pre-Holocene subsidence

Paleontology of leaf beetles

`The rate of evolution in any large group is not uniform; there are periods of relatise stability, and periods of comparatively rapid change.' Cockerell and LeVeque, 1931 To Yenli Ych, my beloved wife, a most wonderful person! The fossil record of the Chrysomelidae can be tentatively traced back to the late Paleozoic to early Mesozoic Triassic. Mesozoic records at least 9 subfamilies, 19 genera, and 35 species, are represented by the Sagrinae, the exclusively Mesozoic Proto scelinae, Clytrinae, Cryptocephalinae, Eumolpinae, Chrysomelinae. Galerucinac, Alticinae, and Cassidinae. Cenozoic records at least 12 subfamilies- 63 % of the extant- 12! genera, and 325 species, include the same extant subfamilies as well as the Donaciinae, Zeugophorinae, Criocerinae, and Hispinae and can be frequently identified to genus, especially if preserved in amber. Quaternary records are often identified to extant species. tn total, at least t3! genera about 4 % of total extant, and 357 species < 1 % have been reported. At least, 24 genera <1 % of the extant seem to be extinct. Although reliable biological information associated with the fossil chrysomelids is very scarce, it seems that most of the modern host-plant associations were established, at least, in the late Mesozoic to early Cenozoic. As a whole, stasis seems to be the general rule of the chrysomelid fossil record. Together with other faunal elements, chrysomelids, especially donaciines, have been used as biogeographic and paleoclimatological indicators in the Holocene. I