The global burden of cancer attributable to risk factors, 2010–19: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND: Understanding the magnitude of cancer burden attributable to potentially modifiable risk factors is crucial for development of effective prevention and mitigation strategies. We analysed results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 to inform cancer control planning efforts globally. METHODS: The GBD 2019 comparative risk assessment framework was used to estimate cancer burden attributable to behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risk factors. A total of 82 risk–outcome pairs were included on the basis of the World Cancer Research Fund criteria. Estimated cancer deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) in 2019 and change in these measures between 2010 and 2019 are presented. FINDINGS: Globally, in 2019, the risk factors included in this analysis accounted for 4·45 million (95% uncertainty interval 4·01–4·94) deaths and 105 million (95·0–116) DALYs for both sexes combined, representing 44·4% (41·3–48·4) of all cancer deaths and 42·0% (39·1–45·6) of all DALYs. There were 2·88 million (2·60–3·18) risk-attributable cancer deaths in males (50·6% [47·8–54·1] of all male cancer deaths) and 1·58 million (1·36–1·84) risk-attributable cancer deaths in females (36·3% [32·5–41·3] of all female cancer deaths). The leading risk factors at the most detailed level globally for risk-attributable cancer deaths and DALYs in 2019 for both sexes combined were smoking, followed by alcohol use and high BMI. Risk-attributable cancer burden varied by world region and Socio-demographic Index (SDI), with smoking, unsafe sex, and alcohol use being the three leading risk factors for risk-attributable cancer DALYs in low SDI locations in 2019, whereas DALYs in high SDI locations mirrored the top three global risk factor rankings. From 2010 to 2019, global risk-attributable cancer deaths increased by 20·4% (12·6–28·4) and DALYs by 16·8% (8·8–25·0), with the greatest percentage increase in metabolic risks (34·7% [27·9–42·8] and 33·3% [25·8–42·0]). INTERPRETATION: The leading risk factors contributing to global cancer burden in 2019 were behavioural, whereas metabolic risk factors saw the largest increases between 2010 and 2019. Reducing exposure to these modifiable risk factors would decrease cancer mortality and DALY rates worldwide, and policies should be tailored appropriately to local cancer risk factor burden

Parametric survival analysis of menarche onset timing among Nigerian girls

Background: This study was a response to the dearth of information on the timing of menarche in low-income countries, and the need to update knowledge on the condition. It thereby enables the provision of adequate support to young girls during menarche. The study determined the timing and range of onset of menarche and identified the factors influencing the timing. Methods: We used data on girls' sexual and reproductive processes from a nationally representative population survey of girls aged 15–24 years in Nigeria. Descriptive statistics, and survival analysis techniques were used for data analysis at p = 0·05. Finding: A quarter of the respondents (26%) had commenced menstruation by age 12. Almost all, (90%) had experienced menstruation by age 17. Girls aged 20–24 years reported later menarche (time ratio 1·066, 95% CI: 1·045-1·087) compared to those aged 15–19 years. An increase of respondents age by one year resulted in 0·8% delay in onset timing. Significant differences were also found in the zone of residence among the sampled population. Compared with girls from the South East, the timing of menstruation was generally delayed among the girls from South-South by 5%, North Central by 9%, South West by 10%, North East by 16% and 17% among girls from the North West. Interpretation: There was a wide range in menarcheal age in Nigerian girls with a peak at 13–14 years and the possibility of a secular trend in the timing of onset. Early family life education is recommended

Kumaraswamy log-logistic Weibull distribution: model, theory and application to lifetime and survival data

We develop the new Kumaraswamy Log-Logistic Weibull (KLLoGW) distribution by combining the Kumaraswamy and Log-logistic Weibull distributions. This new model is flexible for modelling lifetime data. Some statistical properties including quantile function, hazard rate function, moments and conditional moments are presented. Model parameters are estimated via the method of maximum likelihood and a Monte Carlo simulation study conducted to assess the accuracy of the estimates. Finally, the model is applied to a real dataset

Factors contributing to the duration of postpartum abstinence among Nigerian women: semi-parametric survival analysis

Background: The duration of postpartum abstinence is on the decrease but has not been met with increased uptake of contraceptive in Nigeria. This imbalanced transition could result in shorter birth intervals and worsen maternal and child health outcomes. There is a paucity of information on the duration and predictors of time to end of postpartum abstinence in Nigeria. This study was aimed at understanding the time to end of postpartum abstinence and factors predicting the duration in Nigeria. Methods: The NDHS 2013 data was used. Data of all women who had ever given birth were included. The time to end of postpartum abstinence was censored among currently breastfeeding mothers. The Kaplan Meier Product Limit method was used to estimate the survival and hazard function while the Cox regression was used to fit a model for time to end of postpartum abstinence at 5% significance level. Data were weighed and provisions were made for multicollinearity. Results: The overall average duration of postpartum abstinence in Nigeria is 3 month. In all, 58% ended postpartum abstinence within the first three months while 18%, 10%, and 14% ended it within 4–6 months, 7–12 months and after one year respectively. Postpartum abstinence did not last beyond 3 months among 83% of the women in the North-West region, compared with 23% in the North Central region, and 34% in the South East. The Muslims had the highest proportion of women who ended postpartum abstinence within the first three months after delivery at 72% compared with Catholic women (31%). The median time to end of postpartum abstinence was lowest (2 months) among women from North West, Muslims, in poorest wealth quintiles and those with no education. The “hazard” of earlier resumption of sexual activity after birth was over 3 times more likely among women in the North West than those in the North Central (aHR = 3.09, 95% CI: 2.95–3.24). Women using contraceptives had a 40% hazard of ending postpartum abstinence earlier. Rural women were 7.6% times less likely to end postpartum abstinence compared to their urban counterpart. Women from rich households have an excess risk of 14% to end postpartum abstinence early compared to women from poor households. Conclusion: Women of reproductive age in the North West, who are Muslims and with no education are at higher risk of ending postpartum abstinence early. Hence, policymakers and reproductive health stakeholders should design effective intervention targeted at this group of women as a means of controlling fertility

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990–2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. Methods: Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. Findings: In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 – 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432–912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9–412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (–29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (–27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. Interpretation: Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. Funding: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation © 2022 The Author(s

The burden of mental disorders, substance use disorders and self-harm among young people in Europe, 1990–2019: Findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

Background: Mental health is a public health issue for European young people, with great heterogeneity in resource allocation. Representative population-based studies are needed. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2019 provides internationally comparable information on trends in the health status of populations and changes in the leading causes of disease burden over time. Methods: Prevalence, incidence, Years Lived with Disability (YLDs) and Years of Life Lost (YLLs) from mental disorders (MDs), substance use disorders (SUDs) and self-harm were estimated for young people aged 10-24 years in 31 European countries. Rates per 100,000 population, percentage changes in 1990-2019, 95% Uncertainty Intervals (UIs), and correlations with Sociodemographic Index (SDI), were estimated. Findings: In 2019, rates per 100,000 population were 16,983 (95% UI 12,823 – 21,630) for MDs, 3,891 (3,020 - 4,905) for SUDs, and 89·1 (63·8 - 123·1) for self-harm. In terms of disability, anxiety contributed to 647·3 (432–912·3) YLDs, while in terms of premature death, self-harm contributed to 319·6 (248·9–412·8) YLLs, per 100,000 population. Over the 30 years studied, YLDs increased in eating disorders (14·9%;9·4-20·1) and drug use disorders (16·9%;8·9-26·3), and decreased in idiopathic developmental intellectual disability (–29·1%;23·8-38·5). YLLs decreased in self-harm (–27·9%;38·3-18·7). Variations were found by sex, age-group and country. The burden of SUDs and self-harm was higher in countries with lower SDI, MDs were associated with SUDs. Interpretation: Mental health conditions represent an important burden among young people living in Europe. National policies should strengthen mental health, with a specific focus on young people. Funding: The Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation © 2022 The Author(s

The burden of injury in Central, Eastern, and Western European sub-region: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease 2019 Study

Background: Injury remains a major concern to public health in the European region. Previous iterations of the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study showed wide variation in injury death and disability adjusted life year (DALY) rates across Europe, indicating injury inequality gaps between sub-regions and countries. The objectives of this study were to: 1) compare GBD 2019 estimates on injury mortality and DALYs across European sub-regions and countries by cause-of-injury category and sex; 2) examine changes in injury DALY rates over a 20 year-period by cause-of-injury category, sub-region and country; and 3) assess inequalities in injury mortality and DALY rates across the countries. Methods: We performed a secondary database descriptive study using the GBD 2019 results on injuries in 44 European countries from 2000 to 2019. Inequality in DALY rates between these countries was assessed by calculating the DALY rate ratio between the highest-ranking country and lowest-ranking country in each year. Results: In 2019, in Eastern Europe 80 [95% uncertainty interval (UI): 71 to 89] people per 100,000 died from injuries; twice as high compared to Central Europe (38 injury deaths per 100,000; 95% UI 34 to 42) and three times as high compared to Western Europe (27 injury deaths per 100,000; 95%UI 25 to 28). The injury DALY rates showed less pronounced differences between Eastern (5129 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 4547 to 5864), Central (2940 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 2452 to 3546) and Western Europe (1782 DALYs per 100,000; 95% UI: 1523 to 2115). Injury DALY rate was lowest in Italy (1489 DALYs per 100,000) and highest in Ukraine (5553 DALYs per 100,000). The difference in injury DALY rates by country was larger for males compared to females. The DALY rate ratio was highest in 2005, with DALY rate in the lowest-ranking country (Russian Federation) 6.0 times higher compared to the highest-ranking country (Malta). After 2005, the DALY rate ratio between the lowest- and the highest-ranking country gradually decreased to 3.7 in 2019. Conclusions: Injury mortality and DALY rates were highest in Eastern Europe and lowest in Western Europe, although differences in injury DALY rates declined rapidly, particularly in the past decade. The injury DALY rate ratio of highest- and lowest-ranking country declined from 2005 onwards, indicating declining inequalities in injuries between European countries. © 2022, The Author(s)