Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy:Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods

The socio-economic effects of bio-energy are not unequivocally positive, although it is one of the main arguments for supporting its expansion. An ex-ante quantification of the impacts is necessary for transparently presenting the benefits and burdens of bioenergy before they occur, and for minimising unwanted outcomes. In this article, the status, limitations, and possibilities for improvements in ex-ante quantitative research methods for investigating socio-economic impacts of bioenergy are mapped. For this, a literature review to identify relevant indicators, analyse the latest quantitative ex-ante research methods, and to assess their ability and suitability to measure these indicators was performed. The spatial aggregation of existing analyses was specifically considered because quantitative information on different spatial scales shows the geographic distribution of the effects. From the 236 indicators of socio-economic impacts spread over twelve impact categories that were found in this review, it becomes evident that there are clear differences in the ex-ante quantification of these indicators. The review shows that some impact categories receive more attention in ex-ante quantification studies, such as project-level economic feasibility and national-level macroeconomic impacts, while other relevant indicators have not been ex-ante quantified, such as community impacts and public acceptance. Moreover, a key blind spot regarding food security impacts was identified in the aggregation level at which food security impacts are quantified, which does not match the level at which the impacts occur. The review also shows that much more can be done in terms of ex-ante quantification of these impacts. Specifically, spatial disaggregation of models and model collaboration can extend the scope of socio-economic analyses. This is demonstrated for food security impacts, which shows the potential for future household-level analysis of food security impacts on all four pillars of food security

Geospatial analysis of the energy yield and environmental footprint of different photovoltaic module technologies

The majority of currently installed photovoltaic (PV) systems are based on mono- and polycrystalline silicon PV modules. Manufacturers of competing technologies often argue that due to the characteristics of their PV technologies, PV systems based on their modules are able to achieve higher annual energy yield, due to a smaller effect of temperature on module performance and/or a better performance at low light intensities. While these benefits have been confirmed in local studies many times, there is still limited insight as to the locations at which a particular technology actually performs best. In this study we have analysed the performance of a large set of PV modules, based on irradiance time series that were taken from satellite measurements. Using these data, and combining it with a PV performance model, we have made a geospatial analysis of the energy yield of different types of PV modules. We aim to make the energy yield of the investigated modules spatially explicit, allowing PV system installers to choose the best module type for every location investigated. Our results show that there is large geographical variety in the performance of PV modules, in terms of energy yield but also in terms of relative performance or performance ratio. While some technologies clearly exhibit a decrease in performance ratio at locations where they operate at higher temperatures, for some technologies this effect is much smaller. As a result of the variation in performance, the environmental footprint of.13V modules also shows large geographical variations. However, even at low irradiance locations the environmental footprint of PV modules in general is much lower compared to that of fossil fuel based electricity generation. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved

Re-assessment of net energy production and greenhouse gas emissions avoidance after 40 years of photovoltaics development

Since the 1970s, installed solar photovoltaic capacity has grown tremendously to 230 gigawatt worldwide in 2015, with a growth rate between 1975 and 2015 of 45%. This rapid growth has led to concerns regarding the energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions of photovoltaics production. We present a review of 40 years of photovoltaics development, analysing the development of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions associated with photovoltaics production. Here we show strong downward trends of environmental impact of photovoltaics production, following the experience curve law. For every doubling of installed photovoltaic capacity, energy use decreases by 13 and 12% and greenhouse gas footprints by 17 and 24%, for poly-and monocrystalline based photovoltaic systems, respectively. As a result, we show a break-even between the cumulative disadvantages and benefits of photovoltaics, for both energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, occurs between 1997 and 2018, depending on photovoltaic performance and model uncertainties

Greenhouse gas emission curves for advanced biofuel supply chains

Most climate change mitigation scenarios that are consistent with the 1.5–2 °C target rely on a large-scale contribution from biomass, including advanced (second-generation) biofuels. However, land-based biofuel production has been associated with substantial land-use change emissions. Previous studies show a wide range of emission factors, often hiding the influence of spatial heterogeneity. Here we introduce a spatially explicit method for assessing the supply of advanced biofuels at different emission factors and present the results as emission curves. Dedicated crops grown on grasslands, savannahs and abandoned agricultural lands could provide 30 EJBiofuel yr−1 with emission factors less than 40 kg of CO2-equivalent (CO2e) emissions per GJBiofuel (for an 85-year time horizon). This increases to 100 EJBiofuel yr−1 for emission factors less than 60 kgCO2e GJBiofuel −1. While these results are uncertain and depend on model assumptions (including time horizon, spatial resolution, technology assumptions and so on), emission curves improve our understanding of the relationship between biofuel supply and its potential contribution to climate change mitigation while accounting for spatial heterogeneity

A review of key international biomass and bioenergy sustainability frameworks and certification systems and their application and implications in Colombia

This document presents the results of an analysis of the key sustainability certification systems applicable to biomass and bioenergy. A review was made of the state-of-the-art sustainability frameworks at the international level. The improvements that have been made in these standards in recent years to reduce social, environmental and economic impacts were identified. In addition, it was determined how some of the initiatives analyzed were implemented in a country such as Colombia, where the establishment of a bio-based economy is being carried out. It was noted that most of the certification systems analyzed have been updated in the last two years. The main adjustments made to the standards are based on criteria developed by the European Commission through the Renewable Energy Directive (EU2015/1513). For environmental issues, it was found that the key update was the inclusion of the indirect land-use change (ILUC). Another key issue addressed is the obligation to calculate and publish the GHG emissions generated annually. Social issues have increased the focus on food security of the population regarding local areas of influence such as the price of the family food basket and food supply. Regarding economic issues, the requirement for a business plan is highlighted to contribute to the economic viability of a certified company. Colombia is one of the countries in the world where the basic conditions support a future sustainable bio-based products sector. Not only does the country have a large amount of land suitable for cultivation, but the land does not require the forests deforestation. However, it must be borne in mind that in a megadiverse country like Colombia, a joint effort (integration) is required between the application of strict laws for the protection of natural resources and the use of certification systems for sustainable products

Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios

Biomass is often seen as a key component of future energy systems as it can be used for heat and electricity production, as a transport fuel, and a feedstock for chemicals. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with carbon capture and storage to provide so-called “negative emissions”. At the same time, however, its production will require land, possibly impacting food security, land-based carbon stocks, and other environmental services. Thus, the strategies adopted in the supply, conversion, and use of biomass have a significant impact on its effectiveness as a climate change mitigation measure. We use the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project three different global, long term scenarios spanning different socioeconomic futures with varying rates of population growth, economic growth, and technological change, and investigate the role of biomass in meeting strict climate targets. Using these scenarios we highlight different possibilities for biomass supply and demand, and provide insights on the requirements and challenges for the effective use of this resource as a climate change mitigation measure. The results show that in scenarios meeting the 1.5 °C target, biomass could exceed 20% of final energy consumption, or 115–180 EJPrim/yr in 2050. Such a supply of bioenergy can only be achieved without extreme levels land use change if agricultural yields improve significantly and effective land zoning is implemented. Furthermore, the results highlight that strict mitigation targets are contingent on the availability of advanced technologies such as lignocellulosic fuels and carbon capture and storage

Integrated assessment of biomass supply and demand in climate change mitigation scenarios

Biomass is often seen as a key component of future energy systems as it can be used for heat and electricity production, as a transport fuel, and a feedstock for chemicals. Furthermore, it can be used in combination with carbon capture and storage to provide so-called "negative emissions". At the same time, however, its production will require land, possibly impacting food security, land-based carbon stocks, and other environmental services. Thus, the strategies adopted in the supply, conversion, and use of biomass have a significant impact on its effectiveness as a climate change mitigation measure. We use the IMAGE 3.0 integrated assessment model to project three different global, long term scenarios spanning different socioeconomic futures with varying rates of population growth, economic growth, and technological change, and investigate the role of biomass in meeting strict climate targets. Using these scenarios we highlight different possibilities for biomass supply and demand, and provide insights on the requirements and challenges for the effective use of this resource as a climate change mitigation measure. The results show that in scenarios meeting the 1.5 degrees C target, biomass could exceed 20% of final energy consumption, or 115-180 EJ(Prim)/yr in 2050. Such a supply of bioenergy can only be achieved without extreme levels land use change if agricultural yields improve significantly and effective land zoning is implemented. Furthermore, the results highlight that strict mitigation targets are contingent on the availability of advanced technologies such as lignocellulosic fuels and carbon capture and storage

Projecting socio-economic impacts of bioenergy: Current status and limitations of ex-ante quantification methods

The socio-economic effects of bio-energy are not unequivocally positive, although it is one of the main arguments for supporting its expansion. An ex-ante quantification of the impacts is necessary for transparently presenting the benefits and burdens of bioenergy before they occur, and for minimising unwanted outcomes. In this article, the status, limitations, and possibilities for improvements in ex-ante quantitative research methods for investigating socio-economic impacts of bioenergy are mapped. For this, a literature review to identify relevant indicators, analyse the latest quantitative ex-ante research methods, and to assess their ability and suitability to measure these indicators was performed. The spatial aggregation of existing analyses was specifically considered because quantitative information on different spatial scales shows the geographic distribution of the effects. From the 236 indicators of socio-economic impacts spread over twelve impact categories that were found in this review, it becomes evident that there are clear differences in the ex-ante quantification of these indicators. The review shows that some impact categories receive more attention in ex-ante quantification studies, such as project-level economic feasibility and national-level macroeconomic impacts, while other relevant indicators have not been ex-ante quantified, such as community impacts and public acceptance. Moreover, a key blind spot regarding food security impacts was identified in the aggregation level at which food security impacts are quantified, which does not match the level at which the impacts occur. The review also shows that much more can be done in terms of ex-ante quantification of these impacts. Specifically, spatial disaggregation of models and model collaboration can extend the scope of socio-economic analyses. This is demonstrated for food security impacts, which shows the potential for future household-level analysis of food security impacts on all four pillars of food security

Energy demand and emissions of the non-energy sector

The demand for fossil fuels for non-energy purposes such as production of bulk chemicals is poorly understood. In this study we analyse data on non-energy demand and disaggregate it across key services or products. We construct a simulation model for the main products of non-energy use and project the global demand for primary fuels used as feedstocks and the resulting carbon emissions until 2100. The model is then applied to estimate the potential emission reductions by increased use of biomass, a more ambitious climate policy and advanced post-consumer waste management. We project that the global gross demand for feedstocks more than triples from 30 EJ in 2010 to over 100 EJ in 2100, mainly due to the increased demand for high value chemicals such as ethylene. Carbon emissions increase disproportionately (from 160 MtC per year in 2010 to over 650 MtC per year in 2100) due to greater use of coal, especially in ammonia and methanol production. If biomass is used, it can supply a large portion of the required primary energy and reduce carbon emissions by up to 20% in 2100 compared to the reference development. Climate policy can further reduce emissions by over 30%. Post-consumer waste management options such as recycling or incineration with energy recovery do not necessarily reduce energy demand or carbon emissions