Prediction or causality? A scoping review of their conflation within current observational research.

Etiological research aims to uncover causal effects, whilst prediction research aims to forecast an outcome with the best accuracy. Causal and prediction research usually require different methods, and yet their findings may get conflated when reported and interpreted. The aim of the current study is to quantify the frequency of conflation between etiological and prediction research, to discuss common underlying mistakes and provide recommendations on how to avoid these. Observational cohort studies published in January 2018 in the top-ranked journals of six distinct medical fields (Cardiology, Clinical Epidemiology, Clinical Neurology, General and Internal Medicine, Nephrology and Surgery) were included for the current scoping review. Data on conflation was extracted through signaling questions. In total, 180 studies were included. Overall, 26% (n = 46) contained conflation between etiology and prediction. The frequency of conflation varied across medical field and journal impact factor. From the causal studies 22% was conflated, mainly due to the selection of covariates based on their ability to predict without taking the causal structure into account. Within prediction studies 38% was conflated, the most frequent reason was a causal interpretation of covariates included in a prediction model. Conflation of etiology and prediction is a common methodological error in observational medical research and more frequent in prediction studies. As this may lead to biased estimations and erroneous conclusions, researchers must be careful when designing, interpreting and disseminating their research to ensure this conflation is avoided

Classification of patients with knee osteoarthritis in clinical phenotypes: data from the osteoarthritis initiative

<div><p>Objectives</p><p>The existence of phenotypes has been hypothesized to explain the large heterogeneity characterizing the knee osteoarthritis. In a previous systematic review of the literature, six main phenotypes were identified: Minimal Joint Disease (MJD), Malaligned Biomechanical (MB), Chronic Pain (CP), Inflammatory (I), Metabolic Syndrome (MS) and Bone and Cartilage Metabolism (BCM). The purpose of this study was to classify a sample of individuals with knee osteoarthritis (KOA) into pre-defined groups characterized by specific variables that can be linked to different disease mechanisms, and compare these phenotypes for demographic and health outcomes.</p><p>Methods</p><p>599 patients were selected from the OAI database FNIH at 24 months’ time to conduct the study. For each phenotype, cut offs of key variables were identified matching the results from previous studies in the field and the data available for the sample. The selection process consisted of 3 steps. At the end of each step, the subjects classified were excluded from the further classification stages. Patients meeting the criteria for more than one phenotype were classified separately into a ‘complex KOA’ group.</p><p>Results</p><p>Phenotype allocation (including complex KOA) was successful for 84% of cases with an overlap of 20%. Disease duration was shorter in the MJD while the CP phenotype included a larger number of Women (81%). A significant effect of phenotypes on WOMAC pain (F = 16.736 p <0.001) and WOMAC physical function (F = 14.676, p < 0.001) was identified after controlling for disease duration.</p><p>Conclusion</p><p>This study signifies the feasibility of a classification of KOA subjects in distinct phenotypes based on subgroup-specific characteristics.</p></div

Knowledge of actions of inhaled corticosteroids in patients who did not persist drug treatment early

Objective To evaluate, among new users of inhaled corticosteroids that did not persist treatment, knowledge of inhaled corticosteroids' actions and whether they were instructed on the use of their inhaler. Setting Fifteen community pharmacies in The Netherlands. Methods Patients were interviewed by telephone. Their general practitioners provided diagnostic information and automated dispensing records were retrieved. Main outcome measures Knowledge of patients about the actions of inhaled corticosteroids. Results 230 (80.1%) of 287 patients were willing to participate. The majority (79.1%) of 230 patients was not aware of the anti-inflammatory actions of inhaled corticosteroids. Most patients were instructed on the use of their inhaler, predominantly by their physician (53%) or pharmacy (35.2%). Conclusions Although most patients reported inhaler instruction by at least one health care provider, the majority was unaware of inhaled corticosteroids' actions. Physicians and pharmacists should reconsider the instructions they provide especially to patients who should continuously use inhaled corticosteroids

Mechano-energetics of the asynchronous and resynchronized heart

Abnormal electrical activation of the ventricles creates major abnormalities in cardiac mechanics. Local contraction patterns, as reflected by measurements of local strain, are not only out of phase, but often also show opposing length changes in early and late activated regions. As a consequence, the efficiency of cardiac pump function (the amount of stroke work generated by a unit of oxygen consumed) is approximately 30% lower in asynchronous than in synchronous hearts. Moreover, the amount of work performed in myocardial segments becomes considerably larger in late than in early activated regions. Cardiac Resynchronization Therapy (CRT) improves mechano-energetics of the previously asynchronous heart in various ways: it alleviates impediment of the abnormal contraction on blood flow, it increases myocardial efficiency, it recruits contraction in the previously early activated septum and it creates a more uniform distribution of myocardial blood flow. These factors act together to increase the range of cardiac work that can be delivered by the patients’ heart, an effect that can explain the increased exercise tolerance and quality of life reported in several CRT trials

Vitality and the course of limitations in activities in osteoarthritis of the hip or knee

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The objective of the study was to determine whether psychological and social factors predict the course of limitations in activities in elderly patients with osteoarthritis of the hip or knee, in addition to established somatic and cognitive risk factors.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A longitudinal cohort study with a follow-up period of three years was conducted. Patients (N = 237) with hip or knee osteoarthritis were recruited from rehabilitation centers and hospitals. Body functions, comorbidity, cognitive functioning, limitations in activities and psychological and social factors (mental health, vitality, pain coping and perceived social support) were assessed. Statistical analyses included univariate and multivariate regression analyses. Psychological and social factors were added to a previously developed model with body functions, comorbidity and cognitive functioning.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In knee OA, low vitality has a negative impact on the course of self-reported and performance-based limitations in activities, after controlling for somatic and cognitive factors. In hip OA, psychological and social factors had no additional contribution to the model.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Low vitality predicts deterioration of limitations in activities in elderly patients with osteoarthritis of the knee, in addition to established somatic and cognitive risk factors. However, the contribution of vitality is relatively small. Results of this study are relevant for the group of patients with knee or hip OA, attending hospitals and rehabilitation centers.</p

The “Missing” Link Between Acute Hemodynamic Effect and Clinical Response

The hemodynamic, mechanical and electrical effects of cardiac resynchronization therapy (CRT) occur immediate and are lasting as long as CRT is delivered. Therefore, it is reasonable to assume that acute hemodynamic effects should predict long-term outcome. However, in the literature there is more evidence against than in favour of this idea. This raises the question of what factor(s) do relate to the benefit of CRT. There is increasing evidence that dyssynchrony, presumably through the resultant abnormal local mechanical behaviour, induces extensive remodelling, comprising structure, as well as electrophysiological and contractile processes. Resynchronization has been shown to reverse these processes, even in cases of limited hemodynamic improvement. These data may indicate the need for a paradigm shift in order to achieve maximal long-term CRT response

Fishery-Induced Selection for Slow Somatic Growth in European Eel

Both theoretical and experimental studies have shown that fishing mortality can induce adaptive responses in body growth rates of fishes in the opposite direction of natural selection. We compared body growth rates in European eel (Anguilla anguilla) from three Mediterranean stocks subject to different fishing pressure. Results are consistent with the hypotheses that i) fast-growing individuals are more likely to survive until sexual maturity than slow-growing ones under natural conditions (no fishing) and ii) fishing can select for slow-growing individuals by removing fast-growing ones. Although the possibility of human-induced evolution seems remote for a panmictic species like such as the European eel, further research is desirable to assess the implications of the intensive exploitation on this critically endangered fish