52 research outputs found

    Marginalization of end-use technologies in energy innovation for climate protection

    Get PDF
    Mitigating climate change requires directed innovation efforts to develop and deploy energy technologies. Innovation activities are directed towards the outcome of climate protection by public institutions, policies and resources that in turn shape market behaviour. We analyse diverse indicators of activity throughout the innovation system to assess these efforts. We find efficient end-use technologies contribute large potential emission reductions and provide higher social returns on investment than energy-supply technologies. Yet public institutions, policies and financial resources pervasively privilege energy-supply technologies. Directed innovation efforts are strikingly misaligned with the needs of an emissions-constrained world. Significantly greater effort is needed to develop the full potential of efficient end-use technologies

    Predicting hospital cost in CKD patients through blood chemistry values

    Get PDF
    <p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Controversy exists in predicting costly hospitalization in patients with chronic kidney disease and co-morbid conditions. We therefore tested associations between serum chemistry values and the occurrence of in-patient hospital costs over a thirteen month study period. Secondarily, we derived a linear combination of variables to estimate probability of such occurrences in any patient.</p> <p>Method</p> <p>We calculated parsimonious values for select variables associated with in-patient hospitalization and compared sensitivity and specificity of these models to ordinal staging of renal disease.</p> <p>Data from 1104 de-identified patients which included 18 blood chemistry observations along with complete claims data for all medical expenses.</p> <p>We employed multivariable logistic regression for serum chemistry values significantly associated with in-patient hospital costs exceeding $3,000 in any single month and contrasted those results to other models by ROC area curves.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The linear combination of weighted Z scores for parathyroid hormone, phosphorus, and albumin correlated with in-patient hospital care at p < 0.005. ROC curves derived from weighted variables of age, eGFR, hemoglobin, albumin, creatinine, and alanine aminotransferase demonstrated significance over models based on non-weighted Z scores for those same variables or CKD stage alone. In contrast, the linear combination of weighted PTH, PO4 and albumin demonstrated better prediction, but not significance over non-weighted Z scores for PTH alone.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>Further study is justified to explore indices that predict costly hospitalization. Such metrics could assist Accountable Care Organizations in evaluating risk adjusted compensation for providers.</p

    A low energy demand scenario for meeting the 1.5 °C target and sustainable development goals without negative emission technologies

    Get PDF
    Scenarios that limit global warming to 1.5 °C describe major transformations in energy supply and ever-rising energy demand. Here, we provide a contrasting perspective by developing a narrative of future change based on observable trends that results in low energy demand. We describe and quantify changes in activity levels and energy intensity in the global North and global South for all major energy services. We project that global final energy demand by 2050 reduces to 245 EJ, around 40% lower than today, despite rises in population, income and activity. Using an integrated assessment modelling framework, we show how changes in the quantity and type of energy services drive structural change in intermediate and upstream supply sectors (energy and land use). Down-sizing the global energy system dramatically improves the feasibility of a low-carbon supply-side transformation. Our scenario meets the 1.5 °C climate target as well as many sustainable development goals, without relying on negative emission technologies
    corecore