On the cost of misperceived travel time variability

Recent studies show that traveler’s scheduling preferences compose a willingness-to-pay function directly corresponding to aggregate measurement of travel time variability under some assumptions. This property makes valuation on travel time variability transferable from context to context, which is ideal for extensive policy evaluation. However, if respondents do not exactly maximizing expected utility as assumed, such transferability might not hold because two types of potential errors: (i) scheduling preference elicited from stated preference experiment involving risk might be biased due to misspecification and (ii) ignoring the cost of misperceiving travel time distribution might result in undervaluation. To find out to what extent these errors matter, we reformulate a general scheduling model under rank-dependent utility theory, and derive reduced-form expected cost functions of choosing suboptimal departure time under two special cases. We estimate these two models and calculate the empirical cost due to misperceived travel time variability. We find that (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure time too earlier to bring optimal cost, (ii) scheduling preference elicited from stated choice method could be quite biased if probability weight- ing is not considered and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving travel time distribution contributes trivial amount to the discrepancy between scheduling model and its reduced form

Prevention of Catastrophic Volcanic Eruptions

Giant volcanic eruptions emit sulphate aerosols as well as volcanic ash. Needless to say that volcanic ash causes significant damage to the environment and human at large. However, the aerosols are even worse. They reach the Stratosphere and stay there for months to years reflecting insolation. As a result, air temperature at the Earth's surfaces drops. Even a slight temperature drop may cause severe food shortage. Yellowstone supervolcano, for example, can even make human in the Northern Hemisphere extinct in several hundred thousand years. Therefore, gradual energy release by supercritical geothermal power generation was proposed to prevent such catastrophic eruptions. The necessary technical innovation is drilling into the depth. However, after the innovation, the power generation itself would be profitable. The risk is unpredicted induction of unwanted catastrophic eruptions.ISERME 2017:International Symposium on Earth Resources Management & Environment. 29-30 August 2017, Colombo, Sri Lank

Incorporating differences in marginal utilities of time across activities in a time allocation model

Most existing activity time allocation models assume that individuals allocate their time to different activities over a period in such a way that the marginal utilities of time across activities are equal. Their argument is that, if not equal, an individual is free to allocate more time to those activities whose marginal utilities of time are higher and, finally allocates the optimal time to each activity with equal marginal utility. However, such an ideal situation may not always prevail in reality, especially when an individual is under income constraint and/or under intense time pressure. In order to incorporate such differences in marginal utilities of time across activities, we enrich the traditional activity time allocation model by explicitly including income constraint and by adding marginal extension activity choice model. As an application, the developed integrated model is used to estimate the value of activity time during weekends in Tokyo. The results are encouraging in that they forecast the individual time allocation more accurately and estimate realistically the value of activity time for each activity in a set of different activities than do by existing traditional models

Microeconomic models of intra-household activity time allocation

The primary purpose of this research is to analyze theoretically the group decisionmaking process leading to the allocation of activity time and the consumption of goods, with particular emphasis in the households. Each household is characterized as a group of individuals making joint decisions about their activity participations, alternative activity time allocations and consumption of various goods, such as independent and joint activity time allocations as well as private and shared consumption patterns. We firstly explore why individual-based models are not realistic in multi-person households, and secondly, we summarize various intra-household activity time allocation models based on different decision-making processes. All models are presented under microeconomic principle of utility maximization to represent the economic behavior of the households

Impact on permeability due to axial stress disturbances for cretaceous sandy shale

Seismic waves generated from earthquakes and artificial surface vibration might alter the water level in the wells and oil or gas production. These transient stress disturbances prospectively caused the permeability change due to new pathway occurring or existing pathway being cleared. The permeability change might encourage enhancing gas recovery, inducing small earthquakes preventing future large earthquakes, and de-routing underground water flow for various purposes. The prospective permeability increase by axial stress disturbances of Cretaceous sandy shale may effectively expand the capacity of methane gas recovery of Kushiro Coal Mine. The paper observes the permeability change of intact or triaxially fractured Kushiro Cretaceous sandy shale by axial stress disturbances. It will be shown that increasing and decreasing factors might work together on permeability.MMIJ Fall Meeting 2017, Sept. 26-28 2017, Sapporo, Japan （資源・素材2017（札幌）: 平成29年度資源・素材関係学協会合同秋季大会, 2017年9月26日～28日, 北海道大学, 札幌市

Travel time variability:Definition and valuation

Increasing traffic leads to increasing severity, spatial extension and duration of congestion. Congestion has two immediate consequences. One is that travel times increase on average. Another is that travel times become increasingly variable and unpredictable. When performing economic appraisal of transport policies it is important to account for both. This is fast becoming widely acknowledged in many countries around the world. The subject is, however, quite difficult for several reasons and so far there is no established consensus on how to define and value travel time variability. This report was commissioned by the Danish Ministry of Transport and its agencies Vejdirektoratet (the Road Directorate) and Trafikstyrelsen (the Rail Agency). Its purpose is to establish a definition of travel time variability and its value that is theoretically sound, possible to estimate from individual preferences, and applicable with existing or realistically foreseeable traffic models. In addition, the report provides short term recommenda- tions for including valuation of travel time variability in Danish practice for economic appraisal of transport projects and outlines a future Danish study of the valuation of travel time variability

On the cost of misperceived travel time variability

Recent studies show that traveler’s scheduling preferences compose a willingness-to-pay function directly corresponding to aggregate measurement of travel time variability under some assumptions. This property makes valuation on travel time variability transferable from context to context, which is ideal for extensive policy evaluation. However, if respondents do not exactly maximizing expected utility as assumed, such transferability might not hold because two types of potential errors: (i) scheduling preference elicited from stated preference experiment involving risk might be biased due to misspecification and (ii) ignoring the cost of misperceiving travel time distribution might result in undervaluation. To find out to what extent these errors matter, we reformulate a general scheduling model under rank-dependent utility theory, and derive reduced-form expected cost functions of choosing suboptimal departure time under two special cases. We estimate these two models and calculate the empirical cost due to misperceived travel time variability. We find that (i) travelers are mostly pessimistic and thus tend to choose departure time too earlier to bring optimal cost, (ii) scheduling preference elicited from stated choice method could be quite biased if probability weight- ing is not considered and (iii) the extra cost of misperceiving travel time distribution contributes trivial amount to the discrepancy between scheduling model and its reduced form