Labor Court Inputs, Judicial Cases Outcomes and Labor Flows: Identifying Real EPL.

Using a data set of individual labor disputes brought to court over the years 1990 to 2003 in France, we examine the impact of the enforcement of Employment Protection Legislation on labor market outcomes. First, we present a simple theoretical model showing that judicial case outcomes cannot be directly interpreted in terms of EPL. A large fraction of cases that go to trials may well be a sign of low firing costs when firms face low litigation costs and are therefore willing to go to court or a sign of high firing costs when workers face low litigation costs and are therefore willing to sue the firm. Second, we exploit our model as well as the French institutional setting to generate instruments for these endogenous outcomes. Using these instruments, we show that labor courts decisions have a causal effect on labor flows. More dropped cases and more trials cause more job destructions: more trials indeed are a sign of lower separation costs. More settlements, higher filing rates, a larger fraction of workers represented at trial, large lawyer density dampen job destruction. A larger judge density causes less job creation, in particular on the extensive margin.Employment protection legislation, Labor flows, Labor judges, Unfair dismissal, France

Is the Inflation-Output Nexus Asymmetric in the Euro Area?

This paper challenges the assumption that the inflation process within the euro area is well-described by a linear Phillips curve and investigates in a nonparametric framework how inflation is sensitive to output growth. An asymmetric output-inflation trade-off is pointed out in the euro area at both aggregated and individual country levels.Nonlinear Phillips curve ; Price stability ; Kernel smoothing.

PIB potentiel et écart de PIB : quelques évaluations pour la France.

This Study and Research Paper is devoted to different estimates of the French economy's potential output and output gap. Several methods, which are presented in detail, are put forward to measure these indicators. The first two sections of the paper profile statistical univariate approaches: smoothing using the Hodrick-Prescott filter; and estimation of a trend, potentially including breaks. The next two sections extend the discussion on statistical techniques to multivariate cases. To be precise, they involve the analysis of structural VAR models and unobserved component models. The final section proposes a structural method for estimating potential output, where business sector output is described by a Cobb-Douglas function, while that of the non-business sector is assumed to be exogenous. For this structural method, the NAIRU has to be calculated before estimating the short to medium-term level of potential output.

MASCOTTE: Model for AnalySing and foreCasting shOrT TErm developments

MASCOTTE is the new version of the Banque de France's macro-econometric forecasting model. Following the last rebasing of National Accounts (currently at 1995 price), the previous version of the model was simplified, re-specified and re-estimated. The model is essentially used for making macro-economic projections of the French economy over a two-to-three year horizon, which requires an accounting framework as close as possible to the French National Accounts. The main agents are companies, households, general government and the rest of the world. The new version now includes a supply block derived from the explicit optimisation behaviour of companies using a Cobb-Douglas technology under imperfect competition, and a new Wage Setting schedule. Full homogeneity of the nominal side of the model ensures the independence between the nominal equilibrium and the real equilibrium, the latter being only determined in the long run by relative prices. Furthermore, as regards the specification of equations, special attention was paid to the consequences of changes in short-term interest rates.Macro-economic model ; Applied econometrics ; Forecasting ; France

CMBPol Mission Concept Study: Prospects for polarized foreground removal

In this report we discuss the impact of polarized foregrounds on a future CMBPol satellite mission. We review our current knowledge of Galactic polarized emission at microwave frequencies, including synchrotron and thermal dust emission. We use existing data and our understanding of the physical behavior of the sources of foreground emission to generate sky templates, and start to assess how well primordial gravitational wave signals can be separated from foreground contaminants for a CMBPol mission. At the estimated foreground minimum of ~100 GHz, the polarized foregrounds are expected to be lower than a primordial polarization signal with tensor-to-scalar ratio r=0.01, in a small patch (~1%) of the sky known to have low Galactic emission. Over 75% of the sky we expect the foreground amplitude to exceed the primordial signal by about a factor of eight at the foreground minimum and on scales of two degrees. Only on the largest scales does the polarized foreground amplitude exceed the primordial signal by a larger factor of about 20. The prospects for detecting an r=0.01 signal including degree-scale measurements appear promising, with 5 sigma_r ~0.003 forecast from multiple methods. A mission that observes a range of scales offers better prospects from the foregrounds perspective than one targeting only the lowest few multipoles. We begin to explore how optimizing the composition of frequency channels in the focal plane can maximize our ability to perform component separation, with a range of typically 40 < nu < 300 GHz preferred for ten channels. Foreground cleaning methods are already in place to tackle a CMBPol mission data set, and further investigation of the optimization and detectability of the primordial signal will be useful for mission design.Comment: 42 pages, 14 figures, Foreground Removal Working Group contribution to the CMBPol Mission Concept Study, v2, matches AIP versio

Mating system variation in hybrid zones: Facilitation, barriers and asymmetries to gene flow

Plant mating systems play a key role in structuring genetic variation both within and between species. In hybrid zones, the outcomes and dynamics of hybridization are usually interpreted as the balance between gene flow and selection against hybrids. Yet, mating systems can introduce selective forces that alter these expectations; with diverse outcomes for the level and direction of gene flow depending on variation in outcrossing and whether the mating systems of the species pair are the same or divergent. We present a survey of hybridization in 133 species pairs from 41 plant families and examine how patterns of hybridization vary with mating system. We examine if hybrid zone mode, level of gene flow, asymmetries in gene flow and the frequency of reproductive isolating barriers vary in relation to mating system/s of the species pair. We combine these results with a simulation model and examples from the literature to address two general themes: (i) the two‐way interaction between introgression and the evolution of reproductive systems, and (ii) how mating system can facilitate or restrict interspecific gene flow. We conclude that examining mating system with hybridization provides unique opportunities to understand divergence and the processes underlying reproductive isolation