Risk, Unexpected Uncertainty, and Estimation Uncertainty: Bayesian Learning in Unstable Settings

Recently, evidence has emerged that humans approach learning using Bayesian updating rather than (model-free) reinforcement algorithms in a six-arm restless bandit problem. Here, we investigate what this implies for human appreciation of uncertainty. In our task, a Bayesian learner distinguishes three equally salient levels of uncertainty. First, the Bayesian perceives irreducible uncertainty or risk: even knowing the payoff probabilities of a given arm, the outcome remains uncertain. Second, there is (parameter) estimation uncertainty or ambiguity: payoff probabilities are unknown and need to be estimated. Third, the outcome probabilities of the arms change: the sudden jumps are referred to as unexpected uncertainty. We document how the three levels of uncertainty evolved during the course of our experiment and how it affected the learning rate. We then zoom in on estimation uncertainty, which has been suggested to be a driving force in exploration, in spite of evidence of widespread aversion to ambiguity. Our data corroborate the latter. We discuss neural evidence that foreshadowed the ability of humans to distinguish between the three levels of uncertainty. Finally, we investigate the boundaries of human capacity to implement Bayesian learning. We repeat the experiment with different instructions, reflecting varying levels of structural uncertainty. Under this fourth notion of uncertainty, choices were no better explained by Bayesian updating than by (model-free) reinforcement learning. Exit questionnaires revealed that participants remained unaware of the presence of unexpected uncertainty and failed to acquire the right model with which to implement Bayesian updating

Sodium Chloride Inhibits the Growth and Infective Capacity of the Amphibian Chytrid Fungus and Increases Host Survival Rates

The amphibian chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis is a recently emerged pathogen that causes the infectious disease chytridiomycosis and has been implicated as a contributing factor in the global amphibian decline. Since its discovery, research has been focused on developing various methods of mitigating the impact of chytridiomycosis on amphibian hosts but little attention has been given to the role of antifungal agents that could be added to the host's environment. Sodium chloride is a known antifungal agent used routinely in the aquaculture industry and this study investigates its potential for use as a disease management tool in amphibian conservation. The effect of 0–5 ppt NaCl on the growth, motility and survival of the chytrid fungus when grown in culture media and its effect on the growth, infection load and survivorship of infected Peron's tree frogs (Litoria peronii) in captivity, was investigated. The results reveal that these concentrations do not negatively affect the survival of the host or the pathogen. However, concentrations greater than 3 ppt significantly reduced the growth and motility of the chytrid fungus compared to 0 ppt. Concentrations of 1–4 ppt NaCl were also associated with significantly lower host infection loads while infected hosts exposed to 3 and 4 ppt NaCl were found to have significantly higher survival rates. These results support the potential for NaCl to be used as an environmentally distributed antifungal agent for the prevention of chytridiomycosis in susceptible amphibian hosts. However, further research is required to identify any negative effects of salt exposure on both target and non-target organisms prior to implementation

The Phrenic Component of Acute Schizophrenia – A Name and Its Physiological Reality

Decreased heart rate variability (HRV) was shown for unmedicated patients with schizophrenia and their first-degree relatives, implying genetic associations. This is known to be an important risk factor for increased cardiac mortality in other diseases. The interaction of cardio-respiratory function and respiratory physiology has never been investigated in the disease although it might be closely related to the pattern of autonomic dysfunction. We hypothesized that increased breathing rates and reduced cardio-respiratory coupling in patients with acute schizophrenia would be associated with low vagal function. We assessed variability of breathing rates and depth, HRV and cardio-respiratory coupling in patients, their first-degree relatives and controls at rest. Control subjects were investigated a second time by means of a stress task to identify stress-related changes of cardio-respiratory function. A total of 73 subjects were investigated, consisting of 23 unmedicated patients, 20 healthy, first-degree relatives and 30 control subjects matched for age, gender, smoking and physical fitness. The LifeShirt®, a multi-function ambulatory device, was used for data recording (30 minutes). Patients breathe significantly faster (p<.001) and shallower (p<.001) than controls most pronouncedly during exhalation. Patients' breathing is characterized by a significantly increased amount of middle- (p<.001), high- (p<.001), and very high frequency fluctuations (p<.001). These measures correlated positively with positive symptoms as assessed by the PANSS scale (e.g., middle frequency: r = 521; p<.01). Cardio-respiratory coupling was reduced in patients only, while HRV was decreased in patients and healthy relatives in comparison to controls. Respiratory alterations might reflect arousal in acutely ill patients, which is supported by comparable physiological changes in healthy subjects during stress. Future research needs to further investigate these findings with respect to their physiological consequences for patients. These results are invaluable for researchers studying changes of biological signals prone to the influence of breathing rate and rhythm (e.g., functional imaging)

Translation invariant extensions of finite volume measures

We investigate the following questions: Given a measure μΛ on configurations on a subset Λ of a lattice L, where a configuration is an element of ΩΛ for some fixed set Ω, does there exist a measure μ on configurations on all of L, invariant under some specified symme- try group of L, such that μΛ is its marginal on configurations on Λ? When the answer is yes, what are the properties, e.g., the entropies, of such measures? Our primary focus is the case in which L = Zd and the symmetries are the translations. For the case in which Λ is an interval in Z we give a simple necessary and sufficient condition, local translation invariance (LTI), for extendibility. For LTI measures we construct extensions having maximal entropy, which we show are Gibbs measures; this construction extends to the case in which L is the Bethe lattice. On Z we also consider extensions supported on periodic configurations, which are analyzed using de Bruijn graphs and which include the extensions with minimal entropy. When Λ ⊂ Z is not an interval, or when Λ ⊂ Zd with d > 1, the LTI condition is necessary but not sufficient for extendibility. For Zd with d > 1, extendibility is in some sense undecidable

Observation of a ppb mass threshoud enhancement in \psi^\prime\to\pi^+\pi^-J/\psi(J/\psi\to\gamma p\bar{p}) decay

The decay channel $\psi^\prime\to\pi^+\pi^-J/\psi(J/\psi\to\gamma p\bar{p})$ is studied using a sample of $1.06\times 10^8$ $\psi^\prime$ events collected by the BESIII experiment at BEPCII. A strong enhancement at threshold is observed in the $p\bar{p}$ invariant mass spectrum. The enhancement can be fit with an $S$-wave Breit-Wigner resonance function with a resulting peak mass of $M=1861^{+6}_{-13} {\rm (stat)}^{+7}_{-26} {\rm (syst)} {\rm MeV/}c^2$ and a narrow width that is $\Gamma<38 {\rm MeV/}c^2$ at the 90% confidence level. These results are consistent with published BESII results. These mass and width values do not match with those of any known meson resonance.Comment: 5 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Chinese Physics

More than Mere Numbers: The Impact of Lethal Control on the Social Stability of a Top-Order Predator

Population control of socially complex species may have profound ecological implications that remain largely invisible if only their abundance is considered. Here we discuss the effects of control on a socially complex top-order predator, the dingo (Canis lupus dingo). Since European occupation of Australia, dingoes have been controlled over much of the continent. Our aim was to investigate the effects of control on their abundance and social stability. We hypothesized that dingo abundance and social stability are not linearly related, and proposed a theoretical model in which dingo populations may fluctuate between three main states: (A) below carrying capacity and socially fractured, (B) above carrying capacity and socially fractured, or (C) at carrying capacity and socially stable. We predicted that lethal control would drive dingoes into the unstable states A or B, and that relaxation of control would allow recovery towards C. We tested our predictions by surveying relative abundance (track density) and indicators of social stability (scent-marking and howling) at seven sites in the arid zone subject to differing degrees of control. We also monitored changes in dingo abundance and social stability following relaxation and intensification of control. Sites where dingoes had been controlled within the previous two years were characterized by low scent-marking activity, but abundance was similar at sites with and without control. Signs of social stability steadily increased the longer an area was allowed to recover from control, but change in abundance did not follow a consistent path. Comparison of abundance and stability among all sites and years demonstrated that control severely fractures social groups, but that the effect of control on abundance was neither consistent nor predictable. Management decisions involving large social predators must therefore consider social stability to ensure their conservation and ecological functioning

The Impact of the C-Terminal Domain on the Interaction of Human DNA Topoisomerase II α and β with DNA

&lt;b&gt;Background&lt;/b&gt; Type II DNA topoisomerases are essential, ubiquitous enzymes that act to relieve topological problems arising in DNA from normal cellular activity. Their mechanism of action involves the ATP-dependent transport of one DNA duplex through a transient break in a second DNA duplex; metal ions are essential for strand passage. Humans have two isoforms, topoisomerase IIα and topoisomerase IIβ, that have distinct roles in the cell. The C-terminal domain has been linked to isoform specific differences in activity and DNA interaction. &lt;b&gt;Methodology/Principal Findings&lt;/b&gt; We have investigated the role of the C-terminal domain in the binding of human topoisomerase IIα and topoisomerase IIβ to DNA in fluorescence anisotropy assays using full length and C-terminally truncated enzymes. We find that the C-terminal domain of topoisomerase IIβ but not topoisomerase IIα affects the binding of the enzyme to the DNA. The presence of metal ions has no effect on DNA binding. Additionally, we have examined strand passage of the full length and truncated enzymes in the presence of a number of supporting metal ions and find that there is no difference in relative decatenation between isoforms. We find that calcium and manganese, in addition to magnesium, can support strand passage by the human topoisomerase II enzymes. &lt;b&gt;Conclusions/Significance&lt;/b&gt; The C-terminal domain of topoisomerase IIβ, but not that of topoisomerase IIα, alters the enzyme's KD for DNA binding. This is consistent with previous data and may be related to the differential modes of action of the two isoforms in vivo. We also show strand passage with different supporting metal ions for human topoisomerase IIα or topoisomerase IIβ, either full length or C-terminally truncated. They all show the same preferences, whereby Mg &#62; Ca &#62; Mn

Does weight loss improve semen quality and reproductive hormones? results from a cohort of severely obese men

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>A high body mass index (BMI) has been associated with reduced semen quality and male subfecundity, but no studies following obese men losing weight have yet been published. We examined semen quality and reproductive hormones among morbidly obese men and studied if weight loss improved the reproductive indicators.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>In this pilot cohort study, 43 men with BMI > 33 kg/m²were followed through a 14 week residential weight loss program. The participants provided semen samples and had blood samples drawn, filled in questionnaires, and had clinical examinations before and after the intervention. Conventional semen characteristics as well as sperm DNA integrity, analysed by the sperm chromatin structure assay (SCSA) were obtained. Serum levels of testosterone, estradiol, sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG), luteinizing hormone (LH), follicle-stimulating hormone (FSH), anti-Müllerian hormone (AMH) and inhibin B (Inh-B) were measured.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Participants were from 20 to 59 years of age (median = 32) with BMI ranging from 33 to 61 kg/m². At baseline, after adjustment for potential confounders, BMI was inversely associated with sperm concentration (p = 0.02), total sperm count (p = 0.02), sperm morphology (p = 0.04), and motile sperm (p = 0.005) as well as testosterone (p = 0.04) and Inh-B (p = 0.04) and positively associated to estradiol (p < 0.005). The median (range) percentage weight loss after the intervention was 15% (3.5 - 25.4). Weight loss was associated with an increase in total sperm count (p = 0.02), semen volume (p = 0.04), testosterone (p = 0.02), SHBG (p = 0.03) and AMH (p = 0.02). The group with the largest weight loss had a statistically significant increase in total sperm count [193 millions (95% CI: 45; 341)] and normal sperm morphology [4% (95% CI: 1; 7)].</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>This study found obesity to be associated with poor semen quality and altered reproductive hormonal profile. Weight loss may potentially lead to improvement in semen quality. Whether the improvement is a result of the reduction in body weight per se or improved lifestyles remains unknown.</p