Individual variation in susceptibility or exposure to SARS-CoV-2 lowers the herd immunity threshold

Individual variation in susceptibility and exposure is subject to selection by natural infection, accelerating the acquisition of immunity, and reducing herd immunity thresholds and epidemic final sizes. This is a manifestation of a wider population phenomenon known as “frailty variation”. Despite theoretical understanding, public health policies continue to be guided by mathematical models that leave out considerable variation and as a result inflate projected disease burdens and overestimate the impact of interventions. Here we focus on trajectories of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic in England and Scotland until November 2021. We fit models to series of daily deaths and infer relevant epidemiological parameters, including coefficients of variation and effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions which we find in agreement with independent empirical estimates based on contact surveys. Our estimates are robust to whether the analysed data series encompass one or two pandemic waves and enable projections compatible with subsequent dynamics. We conclude that vaccination programmes may have contributed modestly to the acquisition of herd immunity in populations with high levels of pre-existing naturally acquired immunity, while being crucial to protect vulnerable individuals from severe outcomes as the virus becomes endemic

Hypoxic environments as refuge against predatory fish in the Amazonian floodplains

Several groups of Amazonian fishes exhibit behavioral, morphological and physiological characteristics that allow occupying hypoxic environments, despite the energetic costs of living in such harsh conditions. One of the supposed advantages of occupying hypoxic habitats would be a lower predation pressure resulting from a lower number of piscivorous fishes in those environments. We tested this hypothesis in an area of the Amazon River floodplain through gill net fishing in normoxic and hypoxic habitats. From the 103 species caught, 38 were classified as piscivores. We found no difference in the number of piscivorous species captured in hypoxic and normoxic habitats (χ2 = 0.23; p = 0.63; df = 1) but piscivorous individuals were more numerous in normoxic than in hypoxic sampling stations (χ2 = 104.4; p < 0.001; df = 1). This indicates that environments submitted to low oxygen conditions may in fact function as refuges against piscivorous fishes in the Amazonian floodplains

Fatores influenciando a estrutura e distribuição espacial dos peixes nos Igarapés de cabeceira do Parque Nacional do Jaú, Amazônia Central

The aim of this study was to investigate the influence of spatial variation in river channels and habitats on the distribution of fish communities in the headwater streams of the Jaú River System, a blackwater tributary of the Negro River. Collections and measurements were made in 34 headwater streams during the period of November-December, 1998. Fish were captured with fish traps and hand nets along standard reaches of two meanders. Data on benthic habitat structure, stream depth and width were collected along lateral transects in each sample reach. A total of 66 fish species from 24 families were collected and classified into seven trophic guilds: allocthonous insectivore, autochthonous insectivore, general insectivore, piscivore, detritivorous planktivore, detritivorous insectivore and insectivorous piscivore. Variations in the distribution and diversity of bottom substrates were important factors influencing fish community structures in these systems. Also, variation in stream size explained the observed variability in fish communities. © 2014, Instituto Internacional de Ecologia. All right reserved