PENDUDUK DAN PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI: Sebuah Penjelasan Empiris Baru

The relationship between population and economic growth is widely debated among economists. In general, population is believed to have positive, negative or insignificant impact on economic growth. The study attempted to analysis the impact of population to output Indonesia. A theoretical framework developed by Becker et al. (1999) was utilized. According to Becker et al. (1999), population density is positively related to economic growth. Higher population density will increase competition in the labor market. This competition promotes accumulation of human capital, which in turn, will stimulate economic growth. The study exploited a panel data of provinces in Indonesia during the period of 2004 to 2013. The analysis utilized a Simultaneous Panel Data Method, i.e. Within 2SLS (Fixed Effect Method) and the estimation was conducted using instrumental variables (IV/2SLS). The empirical model included population variable (measured by population density and labor) and output variable (measured by provincial gross domestic product). The result showed that population density has a negative impact on human capital whilst human capital has a positive impact on economic growth. This study concluded that higher population is good for the economy when the people have adequate human capital. This suggests that higher population density will enhance output as long as it stimulates higher human capital accumulation

MODAL MANUSIA DAN PRODUKTIVITAS Studi Empiris Pengaruh Modal Manusia Terhadap Produktivitas di Indonesia

Human capital is regarded as one of the most important determinant of productivity. How the level of human capital might effect the productivity of an economy is widely studied via the channel of education and health. In accordance to that, this study aimed to analyze the effect of human capital to productivity level across provinces in Indonesia. In this study, the level of education was measured by several indicators, namely : literacy rate and school enrollment rate. The level of health was measured by infant mortality rate. The study employed a panel data of 25 provinces in Indonesia during the period of 1996-2010. Using fixed effect method, the result showed that secondary school enrollment rate and infant mortality rate are significant to explain the variation of productivity in provinces in Indonesi

PENGARUH TRANSISI DEMOGRAFIS TERHADAP PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI ASEAN

This research was purposed to analyze the the influence of demographic transition towards economic growth in ASEAN. This research using Solow Swan method to explain economic growth through capital accumulation, population growth and technology progress in steady state and Bloom and Williamson (1998) theory, that shows demographic transition effect the dependent and working age population growing at different rate. The working age population will trigger the demand of productive working age population, improve the quality of life and increase the saving and investment for rapid economic growth. The source of data comes from data panel that embrace five countries in ASEAN that is Philipines, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand in 1968-2012. The analysis method using Fixed Effect Method. Dependent variable is measured by income per capita growth and independent variable measured by population growth, young age population growth, working age population growth ,elderly population growth and natural log working age, and control variable are gross capital formation, gross domestic product per capita towards US’s gross domestic product, and life expectancy. The result shows that the influence of population growth and young age population significantly negative, working age population growth at first model influence significantly positive but for the second model become insignificant, natural log working age ratio influence positive insignificant, elderly age population growth, gross capital formation, GDP ratio per capita towards US’s GDP influence positively insignificant towards economic growth, the life expectancy had negatively affect insignificant towards economic growth

Respon Nilai Tukar dan Neraca Transaksi Berjalan Indonesia terhadap Dinamika Kebijakan Moneter Indonesia

The research aims to analyze the dynamic relationship between exchange rate, current accounts, and monetary policy in Indonesia. Specifically, this research answers two questions: 1) Causality between Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI), current accounts, and exchange rate; 2) Response of exchange rate and current accounts due to changes in Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI). The analysis is purely based on the theories of Mundell-Fleming, Marshall-Lerner Condition, and Interest Rate Parity. This research uses quaterly time series data during 2005.3 – 2015.1 sourced from Bank Indonesia and World Bank. Granger Causality Test and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) are used as the method of analysis. The variable of monetary policy is measured by the Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI), exchange rate is measured by Real effective exchange rate index, and current accounts is measured by the balance in the current accounts. The estimation results shows that Granger causality runs one-way from Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI) to current accounts. Not granger cause between Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI)and exchange rate. Granger causality runs one-way from exchange rate to the current accounts. On the other side, response of exchange rate and current account is positive during the shock of Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI). However, current accounts requires more time than the exchange rate to reach the equilibrium before the shock of Bank Indonesia Cerficates (SBI)

PERDAGANGAN INTERNASIONAL DAN ALIRAN MODAL LANGSUNG DI INDONESIA : SUBSTITUSI ATAU KOMPLEMENTER?

International trade and capital movement plays important role in economic development. The relation of both is among debated issues in international economics. Following Heckscher-Ohlin Model, Mundell (1957) suggests that trade is a substitute for capital movements. In contrast, Markusen (1983) suggest that both are complementary. Schiff (2006) proposes that tariff defines the relationship. The research attempted to analyze the relation between trade and foreign direct investment in Indonesia. In specific, the research investigated the causal relationship between international trade and capital movement and the nature of relationship. The research employed a quarterly time series data covering period of 2000 to 2013. The data are collected from Capital Investment Coordinating Board of Indonesia (BKPM) and International Financial Statistic (IFS). The analysis were conducted within a Time Series Econometrics Method, i.e. Granger Causality and Vector Error Correction Model (VECM). The estimation result shows that international trade has a one way causality relationship with FDI. International trade does Granger Caused FDI whereas FDI does not Granger Caused international trade. The result also shows that in the long run trade and FDI are complement. This suggest an increase in trade implying an increase in FDI, vice versa

DAMPAK INTEGRASI EKONOMI AFTA DAN ACFTA TERHADAP KOMODITAS TEKSTIL INDONESIA: TRADE CREATION ATAU TRADE DIVERSION?

This study aims to look at the impact that occurs on the economic integration of AFTA and ACFTA on textile commodities in Indonesia in 2005-2013. This research use Gravity Model approach to look at the trade flows that occur between countries. The population in this study are members of AFTA and ACFTA countries and some countries outside of AFTA and ACFTA members in 2005-2013. Total sample of this study is 135. This study analyzes the impact of trade creation or trade diversion by the method of Random Effect Model. Data analysis was performed with the classical assumption and hypothesis testing in linear regression method of data panel. The results showed that the AFTA and ACFTA lead to trade creation effect on Indonesian textile commodities . Gross domestic income countries, the economic distance , the population does not significantly influence Indonesian textile imports . Domestic gross domestic income countries and three variables that explain the impact of trade creation and trade diversion significantly influence Indonesian textile imports

PERTUMBUHAN EKONOMI DAN KESTABILAN POLITIK DI INDONESIA

Different from The Neoclassical Growth Theory, Drazen (2000) states that political factors determines The Economic Performance of an economy. In specific, politics affects the economy via The Property Rights, The Predatory Dictatorship dan The Pressure of Redistribution. We develop an empirical model consisting of political variables and economic variables. We measure political factors by indexes developed by Badan Pusat Statistik, namely; 1) The Democracy Index, 2) The Civil Liberty Index, 3) The Political Right Index, 4) The Democratic Institution Index and 5) The Gini Index. We also include a control variable, i.e. capital expenditure and labor participation rate. Employing a panel data of provinces in Indonesia during the period of 2010 to 2011 and a fixed effect model, we find that our political variables are less likely to explain economic growth in provinces in Indonesia. The Civil Liberty Index, The Political Right Index, The Democratic Institution Index, The Democracy Index, The Gini is not statictically significan

POLITICAL DETERMINANTS OF BUDGET DEFICITS: A SURVEY OF LITERATURE

<p class="IsiAbstract">This paper provides a review of recent developments in the theory and evidence of political determinants of budget deficits. Specifically, we discuss five areas, namely; political system, government fragmentation, ideology, budget procedure and political budget cycles.<span lang="IN"> W</span>e <span lang="IN"> also </span>provide evidence of recent studies.</p

Dampak Liberalisasi Perdagangan Terhadap Kinerja Industri Manufaktur di Indonesia : Pendekatan Structure-Conduct-Performance

3rd Economics & Business Research Festival. Proceeding Seminar &Call For Papers : Business Dynamics Toward Competitive Economic Region Of Asean (Salatiga : 2014), p. 982 - 998The influx of imported goods in the domestic market will pressure domestic producers to be more efficient. The more effiecient the domestic firm, the more competitive it becomes. This competitive firm is ecpected to have opportunities to expand to a larger market.This study analyzed the effect of trade liberalization to industrial performance in Indonesia. This study exploited data at the industry level, ie; 38 industries of 3 digits International Standard Industrial Classification (ISIC) during 2000-2009. The analysis was conducted within Structure Conduct Performance (SCP) framework. Industrial performance was measured by price-cost-margin and trade liberalization was measuded by export share and a dummy indicating implementation of Asean Free Trade Area (AFTA). Using the fixed effect model, the result showed weak evidence of the effect of trade liberalization to industrial performance in Indonesia. Dummy AFTA was negative and significant to industrial performance while export share was insignificant. The results might indicate that the adoption of AFTA endangered domestic firms' performance

MODAL MANUSIA DAN PRODUKTIVITAS

<p>Modal manusia dianggap sebagai salah satu faktor penentu produktivitas. Modal manusia merupakan dimensi kualitatif dari sumberdaya manusia, seperti keahlian dan keterampilan, yang akan memengaruhi kemampuan produktif manusia tersebut. Dimensi kualitatif tersebut diperoleh melalui pendidikan, pelatihan dan kesehatan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganaliss efek dari modal manusia terhadap tingkat produktivitas di provinsi-provinsi di Indonesia. Dalam penelitian ini, tingkat pendidikan diukur dengan beberapa indikator, yaitu; angka melek huruf dan angka partisipasi murni tingkat SD, SMP maupun SMA. Tingkat kesehatan diukur dengan angka kematian bayi. Data yang digunakan adalah data panel dari 25 provinsi di Indonesia selama perioede 1996-2010 yang dianalisis dengan menggunakan Model Panel Data <em>Fixed Effect</em>. Hasil analisis menunjukkan bahwa modal manusia yang diukur dari tingkat pendidikan (APM) dan tingkat kesehatan (AKB) merupakan faktor yang berpengaruh dan signifikan untuk menjelaskan variasi produktivitas meskipun <em>magnitude</em>-nya lebih kecil dibandingkan dengan modal fisik. Hasil analisis juga menunjukkan bahwa variabel pendidikan memiliki <em>magnitude</em> yang lebih besar dibandingkan dengan variabel kesehatan. </p><p><em>Human capital is regarded as one of the determi</em><em>ning factors </em><em>of productivity. Human capital is qualitative dimension of human resource </em><em>which includes</em><em> skills and knowledge. These qualitative dimensions are internalized through education, training and health. This study aimed to analyze the effect of human capital </em><em>on</em><em> </em><em>productivity level across provinces in Indonesia. In this study, the level of education was measured by literacy and school enrollment rate (in primary, secondary and high school). The level of health was measured by infant mortality rate. The study employed a panel data of 25 provinces in Indonesia during the period of 1996-2010. Using fixed effect method, the result showed that secondary school enrollment rate and infant mortality rate are significant to explain the variation of productivity, albeit in smaller magnitude comparing to physical capital. The result also showed that the magnitude of education variable is higher than that of health variable. </em></p