Designing of a Fleet-Leader Program for Carbon Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels

Composite Overwrapped Pressure Vessels (COPVs) are often used for storing pressurant gases on board spacecraft when mass saving is a prime requirement. Substantial weight savings can be achieved compared to all metallic pressure vessels. For example, on the space shuttle, replacement of all metallic pressure vessels with Kevlar COPVs resulted in a weight savings of about 30 percent. Mass critical space applications such as the Ares and Orion vehicles are currently being planned to use as many COPVs as possible in place of all-metallic pressure vessels to minimize the overall mass of the vehicle. Due to the fact that overwraps are subjected to sustained loads during long periods of a mission, stress rupture failure is a major concern. It is, therefore, important to ascertain the reliability of these vessels by analysis, since it is practically impossible to show by experimental testing the reliability of flight quality vessels. Also, it is a common practice to set aside flight quality vessels as "fleet leaders" in a test program where these vessels are subjected to slightly accelerated operating conditions so that they lead the actual flight vessels both in time and load. The intention of fleet leaders is to provide advanced warning if there is a serious design flaw in the vessels so that a major disaster in the flight vessels can be averted with advance warning. On the other hand, the accelerating conditions must be not so severe as to be prone to false alarms. The primary focus of the present paper is to provide an analytical basis for designing a viable fleet leader program for carbon COPVs. The analysis is based on a stress rupture behavior model incorporating Weibull statistics and power-law sensitivity of life to fiber stress level

History of clinical transplantation

How transplantation came to be a clinical discipline can be pieced together by perusing two volumes of reminiscences collected by Paul I. Terasaki in 1991-1992 from many of the persons who were directly involved. One volume was devoted to the discovery of the major histocompatibility complex (MHC), with particular reference to the human leukocyte antigens (HLAs) that are widely used today for tissue matching.1 The other focused on milestones in the development of clinical transplantation.2 All the contributions described in both volumes can be traced back in one way or other to the demonstration in the mid-1940s by Peter Brian Medawar that the rejection of allografts is an immunological phenomenon.3,4 © 2008 Springer New York

A review of techniques for parameter sensitivity analysis of environmental models

Mathematical models are utilized to approximate various highly complex engineering, physical, environmental, social, and economic phenomena. Model parameters exerting the most influence on model results are identified through a ‘sensitivity analysis’. A comprehensive review is presented of more than a dozen sensitivity analysis methods. This review is intended for those not intimately familiar with statistics or the techniques utilized for sensitivity analysis of computer models. The most fundamental of sensitivity techniques utilizes partial differentiation whereas the simplest approach requires varying parameter values one-at-a-time. Correlation analysis is used to determine relationships between independent and dependent variables. Regression analysis provides the most comprehensive sensitivity measure and is commonly utilized to build response surfaces that approximate complex models.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/42691/1/10661_2004_Article_BF00547132.pd

The use of Chernobyl fallout data to test model predictions of the transfer of sup 131 I and sup 137 Cs from the atmosphere through agricultural food chains

This paper highlights the results of a recent international model validation study (BIOMOVS/A4) that has collected data during the aftermath of the Chernobyl accident from 13 sites around the Northern Hemisphere. Models commonly used in the USA for regulatory assessments tended to overpredict by amounts that often approached and/or exceeded a factor of ten. Large overestimation was usually the result of compound conservatism employed in a model at numerous stages. In some cases, seemingly accurate predictions were the result of compensatory error. The study also revealed that similar models produced different results when operated by different users, and that accuracy was affected more frequently by the choice of parameter values than by differences in structural complexity. 4 refs., 3 figs

Environmental behavior of technetium in soil and vegetation: implications for radiological impact assessment

Significant radiological exposures have been estimated for hypothetical atmospheric releases of Tc-99 from gaseous diffusion facilities when vegetation-to-soil concentration ratios representative of laboratory experiments are substituted for generic default values assumed in current regulatory models. To test the relevancy of these laboratory ratios, field investigations were conducted to obtain measurements of the vegetation-to-soil concentration ratio for Tc-99 in samples collected near operating gaseous diffusion facilities and to observe the dynamic behavior of technetium in soil and vegetation following a single application of a sprayed solution of /sup 95m/TcO/sub 4//sup -/ Comparison of observed field concentration ratios and calculated steady-state concentration ratios with ratios obtained from previous laboratory experiments indicates that concentration ratios obtained from field data are one to two orders of magnitude less than those obtained from the laboratory. Furthermore, a substantial accumulation of technetium in soil and vegetation may not occur over long periods of time, since concentrations of technetium in both environmental media were observed to decrease with time subsequent to initial application of /sup 95m/TcO/sub 4//sup -/

Selected examples of practical approaches for the assessment of model reliability - parameter uncertainty analysis

The uncertainty analysis of model predictions has to discriminate between two fundamentally different types of uncertainty. The presence of stochastic variability (Type 1 uncertainty) necessitates the use of a probabilistic model instead of the much simpler deterministic one. Lack of knowledge (Type 2 uncertainty), however, applies to deterministic as well as to probabilistic model predictions and often dominates over uncertainties of Type 1. The term ''probability'' is interpreted differently in the probabilistic analysis of either type of uncertainty. After these discriminations have been explained the discussion centers on the propagation of parameter uncertainties through the model, the derivation of quantitative uncertainty statements for model predictions and the presentation and interpretation of the results of a Type 2 uncertainty analysis. Various alternative approaches are compared for a very simple deterministic model

Suggestions for improvement of the methodology and use of MEPAS, the Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System

The Multimedia Environmental Pollutant Assessment System (MEPAS) has been evaluated for the purpose of determining if the current ranking of waste sites is realistic and reliable. There are two main reasons for the uncertainty of the rankings identified in this study: the use of the hazard potential index (HPI) and the user input. The HPI contributes to unreliable rankings because risks to human populations are summarized in a single numerical value. A final result from MEPAS should include risks to the maximally exposed individual, average individual, and the population (noting the population size) so that users can evaluate and weigh these risks. Examination of user input indicates that exposure pathways and exposed populations were sometimes arbitrarily selected. Users must be better informed about the characteristics of the waste site and its potential interaction with human populations for realistic input to the MEPAS model to be developed. Without realistic and consistent input to the MEPAS, or any model, reliable results cannot be expected and any prioritizations based on the results will be questionable

A proposed framework for consistent regulation of public exposures to radionuclides and other carcinogens

This paper discusses a proposed framework for consistent regulation of carcinogenic risks to the public based on establishing de manifestis (i.e., unacceptable) and de minimis (i.e., trivial) lifetime risks from exposure to any carcinogens at levels of about 10{sup {minus}1}--10{sup {minus}3} and 10{sup {minus}4}--10{sup {minus}6}, respectively, and reduction of risks above de minimis levels as low as reasonably achievable (ALARA). We then discuss certain differences in the way risks from exposure to radionuclides and other carcinogens currently are regulated or assessed which would need to be considered in implementing the proposed regulatory framework for all carcinogens

Selection of terrestrial transfer factors for radioecological assessment models and regulatory guides

A parameter value for a radioecological assessment model is not a single value but a distribution of values about a central value. The sources that contribute to the variability of transfer factors to predict foodchain transport of radionuclides are enumerated. Knowledge of these sources, judgement in interpreting the available data, consideration of collateral information, and established criteria that specify the desired level of conservatism in the resulting predictions are essential elements when selecting appropriate parameter values for radioecological assessment models and regulatory guides. 39 references, 4 figures, 5 tables

Stochastic model of radioiodine transport

A research project has been underway at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory with the objective to evaluate dose assessment models and to determine the uncertainty associated with the model predictions. This has resulted in the application of methods to propagate uncertainties through models. Some techniques and results related to this problem are discussed