A Class of Transformations for Box‐Jenkins Seasonal Models

Peer Reviewedhttps://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/147030/1/rssc00953.pd

Resonant Soft X-Ray Contrast Variation Methods as Composition-Specific Probes of Thin Polymer Film Structure

We have developed complementary soft x-ray scattering and reflectometry techniques that allow for the morphological analysis of thin polymer films without resorting to chemical modification or isotopic 2 labeling. With these techniques, we achieve significant, x-ray energy-dependent contrast between carbon atoms in different chemical environments using soft x-ray resonance at the carbon edge. Because carbon-containing samples absorb strongly in this region, the scattering length density depends on both the real and imaginary parts of the atomic scattering factors. Using a model polymer film of poly(styrene-b-methyl methacrylate), we show that the soft x-ray reflectivity data is much more sensitive to these atomic scattering factors than the soft x-ray scattering data. Nevertheless, fits to both types of data yield useful morphological details on the polymer?slamellar structure that are consistent with each other and with literature values

Effect of diabetes on caregiver burden in an observational study of individuals with Alzheimer’s disease

Background The burden on caregivers of patients with Alzheimer’s disease (AD) is associated with the patient’s functional status and may also be influenced by chronic comorbid medical conditions, such as diabetes. This post-hoc exploratory analysis assessed whether comorbid diabetes in patients with AD affects caregiver burden, and whether caregivers with diabetes experience greater burden than caregivers without diabetes. Caregiver and patient healthcare resource use (HCRU) were also assessed. Methods Baseline data from the GERAS observational study of patients with AD and their caregivers (both n = 1495) in France, Germany and the UK were analyzed. Caregiver burden was assessed using the Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI). Caregiver time on activities of daily living (ADL: basic ADL; instrumental ADL, iADL) and supervision (hours/month), and caregiver and patient HCRU (outpatient visits, emergency room visits, nights hospitalized) were assessed using the Resource Utilization in Dementia instrument for the month before the baseline visit. Regression analyses were adjusted for relevant covariates. Time on supervision and basic ADL was analyzed using zero-inflated negative binomial regression. Results Caregivers of patients with diabetes (n = 188) were younger and more likely to be female (both p < 0.05), compared with caregivers of patients without diabetes (n = 1307). Analyses showed caregivers of patients with diabetes spent significantly more time on iADL (+16 %; p = 0.03; increases were also observed for basic ADL and total caregiver time but did not reach statistical significance) and had a trend towards increased ZBI score. Patients with diabetes had a 63 % increase in the odds of requiring supervision versus those without diabetes (p = 0.01). Caregiver and patient HCRU did not differ according to patient diabetes. Caregivers with diabetes (n = 127) did not differ from those without diabetes (n = 1367) regarding burden/time, but caregivers with diabetes had a 91 % increase in the odds of having outpatient visits (p = 0.01). Conclusions This cross-sectional analysis found caregiver time on iADL and supervision was higher for caregivers of patients with AD and diabetes versus without diabetes, while HCRU was unaffected by patient diabetes. Longitudinal analyses assessing change in caregiver burden over time by patient diabetes status may help clarify the cumulative impact of diabetes and AD dementia on caregiver burden

Probing Chemical Space with Alkaloid-Inspired Libraries

Screening of small molecule libraries is an important aspect of probe and drug discovery science. Numerous authors have suggested that bioactive natural products are attractive starting points for such libraries, due to their structural complexity and sp3-rich character. Here, we describe the construction of a screening library based on representative members of four families of biologically active alkaloids (Stemonaceae, the structurally related cyclindricine and lepadiformine families, lupin, and Amaryllidaceae). In each case, scaffolds were based on structures of the naturally occurring compounds or a close derivative. Scaffold preparation was pursued following the development of appropriate enabling chemical methods. Diversification provided 686 new compounds suitable for screening. The libraries thus prepared had structural characteristics, including sp3 content, comparable to a basis set of representative natural products and were highly rule-of-five compliant

Modeling screening, prevention, and delaying of Alzheimer's disease: an early-stage decision analytic model

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Alzheimer's Disease (AD) affects a growing proportion of the population each year. Novel therapies on the horizon may slow the progress of AD symptoms and avoid cases altogether. Initiating treatment for the underlying pathology of AD would ideally be based on biomarker screening tools identifying pre-symptomatic individuals. Early-stage modeling provides estimates of potential outcomes and informs policy development.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A time-to-event (TTE) simulation provided estimates of screening asymptomatic patients in the general population age ≥55 and treatment impact on the number of patients reaching AD. Patients were followed from AD screen until all-cause death. Baseline sensitivity and specificity were 0.87 and 0.78, with treatment on positive screen. Treatment slowed progression by 50%. Events were scheduled using literature-based age-dependent incidences of AD and death.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>The base case results indicated increased AD free years (AD-FYs) through delays in onset and a reduction of 20 AD cases per 1000 screened individuals. Patients completely avoiding AD accounted for 61% of the incremental AD-FYs gained. Total years of treatment per 1000 screened patients was 2,611. The number-needed-to-screen was 51 and the number-needed-to-treat was 12 to avoid one case of AD. One-way sensitivity analysis indicated that duration of screening sensitivity and rescreen interval impact AD-FYs the most. A two-way sensitivity analysis found that for a test with an extended duration of sensitivity (15 years) the number of AD cases avoided was 6,000-7,000 cases for a test with higher sensitivity and specificity (0.90,0.90).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>This study yielded valuable parameter range estimates at an early stage in the study of screening for AD. Analysis identified duration of screening sensitivity as a key variable that may be unavailable from clinical trials.</p

On the structure of moving average processes

This paper uses Hilbert space methods to develop a rigorous proof that the sum of two uncorrelated moving average processes of order q1 and q2 is an MA process of order q [less, double equals] max (q1, q2). The methods establish the existence of suitable random shocks for the summed process, they illuminate relationships between the coefficients of such processes and their random shocks, and they provide means for proving that the random shocks of the summed processes are normal when the shocks of the underlying processes are normal. The role of the Wold decomposition is examined in terms of multiple representations of an MA process.Peer Reviewedhttp://deepblue.lib.umich.edu/bitstream/2027.42/22881/1/0000445.pd

Poisoning by lavandin extract in a 18-month-old boy

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