Using worker flows in the analysis of establishment turnover : evidence from German administrative data

"Economists have long been interested in the determinants and components of job creation and destruction. In many countries administrative datasets provide an excellent source for detailed analysis on a fine and disaggregate level. However, administrative datasets are not without problems: restructuring and relabeling of firms is often poorly measured and can potentially create large biases. We provide evidence of the extent of this bias and provide a new solution to deal with it using the German Establishment History Panel (BHP). While previous research has relied on the first and last appearance of the establishment identifier (EID) to identify openings and closings, we improve on this approach using a new dataset containing all worker flows between establishments in Germany. This allows us to credibly identify establishment births and deaths from 1975 to 2004. We show that the misclassification bias of using only the EID is very severe: Only about 35 to 40 percent of new and disappearing EIDs with more than 3 employees correspond unambiguously to real establishment entries and exits. Among larger establishments misclassification is even more common. We show that many new establishment IDs appear to be 'Spin-Offs' and these have become increasingly more common over time. We then demonstrate that using only EID entries and exits may dramatically overstate, by as much as 100 percent, the role of establishment turnover for job creation and destruction. Furthermore correcting job creation and destruction measures for spurious EID entries and exits reduces these measures and aligns them closer with the business cycle." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))labour turnover, Arbeitsplatzwechsel, zwischenbetriebliche Mobilität, Arbeitskräftemobilität, Unternehmensgründung, zusätzliche Arbeitsplätze, Arbeitsplatzabbau, job turnover, Betriebsstilllegung, IAB-Betriebs-Historik-Panel

The effects of unemployment insurance on labor supply and search outcomes : regression discontinuity estimates from Germany

"This paper evaluates the impact of large changes in the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in different economic environments on labor supply, job matches, and search behavior. We show that differences in eligibility thresholds by exact age give rise to a valid regression discontinuity design, which we implement using administrative data on the universe of new unemployment spells and career histories over twenty years from Germany. We find that increases in UI have small to modest effects on non-employment rates, a result robust over the business cycle and across demographic groups. Thus, large expansions in UI during recessions do not lead to lasting increases in unemployment duration, nor can they explain differences in unemployment durations across countries. We do not find any effect of increased UI duration on average job quality, but show that the mean potentially confounds differential effects on job search across the distribution of UI duration. However, it appears that for a majority of UI beneficiaries increases in UI duration may lead to small declines in wages." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en))Arbeitslosenversicherung, Arbeitskräfteangebot, Arbeitsuche, Lohnhöhe, Arbeitslosigkeitsdauer, Konjunkturzyklus, geschlechtsspezifische Faktoren, matching, amtliche Statistik

The Effects of Extended Unemployment Insurance over the Business Cycle: Evidence from Regression Discontinuity Estimates Over Twenty Years

One goal of extending the duration of unemployment insurance (UI) in recessions is to increase UI coverage in the face of longer unemployment spells. Although it is a common concern that such extensions may themselves raise nonemployment durations, it is not known how recessions would affect the magnitude of this moral hazard. To obtain causal estimates of the differential effects of UI in booms and recessions, this paper exploits the fact that, in Germany, potential UI benefit duration is a function of exact age which is itself invariant over the business cycle. We implement a regression discontinuity design separately for twenty years and correlate our estimates with measures of the business cycle. We find that the nonemployment effects of a month of additional UI benefits are, at best, somewhat declining in recessions. Yet, the UI exhaustion rate, and therefore the additional coverage provided by UI extensions, rises substantially during a downturn. The ratio of these two effects represents the nonemployment response of workers weighted by the probability of being affected by UI extensions. Hence, our results imply that the effective moral hazard effect of UI extensions is significantly lower in recessions than in booms. Using a model of job search with liquidity constraints, we also find that, in the absence of market-wide effects, the net social benefits from UI extensions can be expressed either directly in terms of the exhaustion rate and the nonemployment effect of UI durations, or as a declining function of our measure of effective moral hazard.

Expanding and Contracting Coronal Loops as Evidence of Vortex Flows Induced by Solar Eruptions

Eruptive solar flares were predicted to generate large-scale vortex flows at both sides of the erupting magnetic flux rope. This process is analogous to a well-known hydrodynamic process creating vortex rings. The vortices lead to advection of closed coronal loops located at peripheries of the flaring active region. Outward flows are expected in the upper part and returning flows in the lower part of the vortex. Here, we examine two eruptive solar flares, an X1.1-class flare SOL2012-03-05T03:20 and a C3.5-class SOL2013-06-19T07:29. In both flares, we find that the coronal loops observed by the Atmospheric Imaging Assembly in its 171\,\AA, 193\,\AA, or 211\,\AA~passbands show coexistence of expanding and contracting motions, in accordance with the model prediction. In the X-class flare, multiple expanding/contracting loops coexist for more than 35 minutes, while in the C-class flare, an expanding loop in 193\,\AA~appears to be close-by and co-temporal with an apparently imploding loop arcade seen in 171\,\AA. Later, the 193\,\AA~loop also switches to contraction. These observations are naturally explained by vortex flows present in a model of eruptive solar flares.Comment: The Astrophysical Journal, accepte

The Long-Term Effects of Unemployment Insurance Extensions on Employment

The majority of papers analyzing the employment effects of unemployment insurance (UI) benefit durations focuses on the duration of the first unemployment spell. In this paper, we make two contributions. First, we use a regression discontinuity design to analyze the long-term effects of extensions in UI durations. These estimates differ from standard estimates that they incorporate differences in UI benefit receipt and employment due to recurrent unemployment spells. Second, we derive a welfare formula of UI extensions that incorporates recurrent nonemployment spells. We find that accounting for nonemployment beyond the initial spell leads to a significant reduction in estimates of the nonemployment effect of UI extensions by about 25 percent. We show this effect is only partly explained by a mechanical effect due to finite follow-up durations, and mainly arises from a lower probability of days in nonemployment in months after end of the initial nonemployment spell.

Fetal Exposure to Toxic Releases and Infant Health

Every year, millions of pounds of toxic chemicals thought to be linked to developmental problems in fetuses and young children are released into the air. In this paper we estimate the effect of these releases on the health of newborns. Using data from the Toxic Release Inventory Program and Vital Statistics Natality and Mortality files, we find significant negative effects of prenatal exposure to toxicants on gestation and birth weight. We also find that several developmental chemicals increase the probability of infant death. The effect is quite sizeable: the reported reductions in cadmium, toluene, and epichlorohydrin releases during the 90s could account for about 3.9 percent of the overall decrease in infant mortality. Our results are robust to several specification checks, such as comparing developmental to non-developmental chemicals, and fugitive air releases to stack air releases.

Automated universal chip platform for fluorescence based cellular assays

Dieser Beitrag ist mit Zustimmung des Rechteinhabers aufgrund einer (DFG geförderten) Allianz- bzw. Nationallizenz frei zugänglich.This publication is with permission of the rights owner freely accessible due to an Alliance licence and a national licence (funded by the DFG, German Research Foundation) respectively.The advantage of cell based assays used as biosensors is the direct access to hardly obtainable parameters like toxicity, mutagenicity and pharmacological effectiveness. Within the last few years we established a micro fluidic platform including a peristaltic micro pump as well as several valves, manifolds and micro channels [1]. For optical online monitoring the micro fluidic system is bonded to a glass slide. Furthermore the biochip is fixed on an electrically heated support. The pneumatically actuated peristaltic pump as well as the temperature control is performed by a control device. For the fluorescence based online monitoring a robotic guided fluorescence measurement module was developed, which supports the detection of fluorescence in microtiter plates and microfluidic systems. This measurement module allows the fluorescence detection of two different excitation / detection wavelengths (480 / 530 nm and 570 / 620 nm) and was successfully characterised using EGFP and Rhodamine 6G. Additionally three cell based assays with bacterial, yeast and human cells were characterized

3D evolution of a filament disappearance event observed by STEREO

A filament disappearance event was observed on 22 May 2008 during our recent campaign JOP 178. The filament, situated in the southern hemisphere, showed sinistral chirality consistent with the hemispheric rule. The event was well observed by several observatories in particular by THEMIS. One day before the disappearance, H$\alpha$ observations showed up and down flows in adjacent locations along the filament, which suggest plasma motions along twisted flux rope. THEMIS and GONG observations show shearing photospheric motions leading to magnetic flux canceling around barbs. STEREO A, B spacecraft with separation angle 52.4 degrees, showed quite different views of this untwisting flux rope in He II 304 \AA\ images. Here, we reconstruct the 3D geometry of the filament during its eruption phase using STEREO EUV He II 304 \AA\ images and find that the filament was highly inclined to the solar normal. The He II 304 \AA\ movies show individual threads, which oscillate and rise to an altitude of about 120 Mm with apparent velocities of about 100 km s$^{-1}$, during the rapid evolution phase. Finally, as the flux rope expands into the corona, the filament disappears by becoming optically thin to undetectable levels. No CME was detected by STEREO, only a faint CME was recorded by LASCO at the beginning of the disappearance phase at 02:00 UT, which could be due to partial filament eruption. Further, STEREO Fe XII 195 \AA\ images showed bright loops beneath the filament prior to the disappearance phase, suggesting magnetic reconnection below the flux rope

The Long-Term Impact of Job Displacement in Germany During the 1982 Recession on Earnings, Income, and Employment

We show that workers displaced from their stable jobs during mass-layoffs in 1982 recession in Germany suffered permanent earnings losses of 10-15% lasting at least 15 years. These estimates are obtained using data and methodology comparable to similar studies for the United States. Exploiting advantages of the German data, we also show that while reduction and recovery in time worked plays a role in explaining earnings losses during the first ten years, the majority of the long-run loss is due to a decline in wages. We also show that even the generous German unemployment insurance system replaced only a small fraction of the total earnings loss. These findings suggest that job displacements can lead to large and lasting reductions in income even in labor markets with tighter social safety nets and lower earnings inequality

Air pollution and infant health: lessons from New Jersey

We examine the impact of three "criteria" air pollutants on infant health in New Jersey in the 1990s by combining information about mother's residential location from birth certificates with information from air quality monitors. Our work offers three important innovations: First, we use the exact addresses of mothers to select those closest to air monitors to improve the accuracy of air quality exposure. Second, we include maternal fixed effects to control for unobserved characteristics of mothers. Third, we examine interactions of air pollution with smoking and other risk factors for poor infant health outcomes. We find consistently negative effects of exposure to carbon monoxide, both during and after birth, with effects considerably larger for smokers and older mothers. Since automobiles are the main source of carbon monoxide emissions, our results have important implications for regulation of automobile emissions