Volcano monitoring and early warning on Mt Etna, Italy, using volcanic tremor – Methods and technical aspects

Recent activity on Mt Etna was characterized by 25 lava fountains occurred on Mt Etna in 2011 and the first semester of 2012. In summer 2012 volcanic activity in a milder form was noticed within the Bocca Nuova crater, before it came to an essential halt in August 2012. Together with previous unrests (e. g., in 2007-08) these events offer rich material for testing automatic data processing and alert issue in the context of volcano monitoring. Our presentation focuses on the seismic background radiation – volcanic tremor – which has a key role in the surveillance of Mt Etna. From 2006 on a multi-station alert system exploiting STA/LTA ratios, has been established in the INGV operative centre of Catania. Besides, also the frequency content has been found to change correspondingly to the type of volcanic activity, and can thus be exploited for warning purposes. We apply Self Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering which offer an efficient way to visualize signal characteristics and its development with time. These techniques allow to identify early stages of eruptive events and automatically flag a critical status before this becomes evident in conventional monitoring techniques. Changes of tremor characteristics are related to the position of the source of the signal. Given the dense seismic network we can base the location of the sources on distribution of the amplitudes across the network. The locations proved to be extremely useful for warning throughout both a flank eruption in 2008 as well as the 2011 lava fountains. During all these episodes a clear migration of tremor sources towards the eruptive centres was revealed in advance. The location of the sources completes the picture of an imminent volcanic unrest and corroborates early warnings flagged by the changes of signal characteristics. Automatic real time data processing poses high demands on computational efficiency, robustness of the methods and stability of data acquisition. The amplitude based multi-station approach is not sensitive to the failure of single stations and therefore offers a good stability. On the other hand, the single station approach, exploiting unsupervised classification techniques, limits logistic efforts, as only one or few key stations are necessary. A common characteristics of both strategies is their robustness to disturbances (undesired transients like earthquakes, noise, short gaps in the continuous data flow). False alarms were not encountered so far. A critical issue it the reliability of data storage and access. Therefore, a specific hardware cluster architecture has been proposed for failover protection, including a Storage Area Network system. We present concepts of the software architectures which allow easy data access following predefined user policies. We also envisage the integration of seismic data and those originating from other scientific fields (e. g., volcano imagery, geochemistry, deformation, gravity, magneto-telluric). This will facilitate cross-checking of evidences encountered from the single data streams, in particular allow their immediate verification with respect to ground truth

Abbreviated Versus Multiparametric Prostate MRI in Active Surveillance for Prostate-Cancer Patients: Comparison of Accuracy and Clinical Utility as a Decisional Tool

(1) Purpose: To compare the diagnostic accuracy between full multiparametric contrast-enhanced prostate MRI (mpMRI) and abbreviated dual-sequence prostate MRI (dsMRI) in men with clinically significant prostate cancer (csPCa) who were candidates for active surveillance. (2) Materials and Methods: Fifty-four patients with a diagnosis of low-risk PCa in the previous 6 months had a mpMRI scan prior to a saturation biopsy and a subsequent MRI cognitive transperineal targeted biopsy (for PI-RADS ≥ 3 lesions). The dsMRI images were obtained from the mpMRI protocol. The images were selected by a study coordinator and assigned to two readers blinded to the biopsy results (R1 and R2). Inter-reader agreement for clinically significant cancer was evaluated with Cohen’s kappa. The dsMRI and mpMRI accuracy was calculated for each reader (R1 and R2). The clinical utility of the dsMRI and mpMRI was investigated with a decision-analysis model. (3) Results: The dsMRI sensitivity and specificity were 83.3%, 31.0%, 75.0%, and 23.8%, respectively, for R1 and R2. The mpMRI sensitivity and specificity were 91.7%, 31.0%, 83.3%, and 23.8%, respectively, for R1 and R2. The inter-reader agreement for the detection of csPCa was moderate (k = 0.53) and good (k = 0.63) for dsMRI and mpMRI, respectively. The AUC values for the dsMRI were 0.77 and 0.62 for the R1 and R2, respectively. The AUC values for the mpMRI were 0.79 and 0.66 for R1 and R2, respectively. No AUC differences were found between the two MRI protocols. At any risk threshold, the mpMRI showed a higher net benefit than the dsMRI for both R1 and R2. (4) Conclusions: The dsMRI and mpMRI showed similar diagnostic accuracy for csPCa in male candidates for active surveillance

Data mining in the context of monitoring Mt Etna, Italy

The persistent volcanic activity of Mt Etna makes the continuous monitoring of multidisciplinary data a first-class issue. Indeed, the monitoring systems rapidly accumulate huge quantity of data, arising specific problems of an- dling and interpretation. In order to respond to these problems, the INGV staff has developed a number of software tools for data mining. These tools have the scope of identifying structures in the data that can be related to volcanic activity, furnishing criteria for the identification of precursory scenarios. In particular, we use methods of clustering and classification in which data are divided into groups according to a- priori-defined measures of similarity or distance. Data groups may assume various shapes, such as convex clouds or complex concave bodies.The “KKAnalysis” software package is a basket of clustering methods. Currently, it is one of the key techniques of the tremor-based automatic alarm systems of INGV Osservatorio Etneo. It exploits both Self-Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering. Beside seismic data, the software has been applied to the geo- chemical composition of eruptive products as well as a combined analysis of gas-emission (radon) and seismic data. The “DBSCAN” package exploits a concept based on density-based clustering. This method allows discovering clusters with arbitrary shape. Clusters are defined as dense regions of objects in the data space separated by re- gions of low density. In DBSCAN a cluster grows as long as the density within a group of objects exceeds some threshold. In the context of volcano monitoring, the method is particularly promising in the recognition of ash par- ticles as they have a rather irregular shape. The “MOTIF” software allows us to identify typical waveforms in time series, outperforming methods like cross-correlation that entail a high computational effort. MOTIF can recognize the non-imilarity of two patterns on a small number of data points without going through the whole length of data vectors. All the developments aforementioned come along with modules for feature extraction and post-processing. Spe- cific attention is devoted to the obustness of the feature extraction to avoid misinterpretations due to the presence of disturbances from environmental noise or other undesired signals originating from the source, which are not relevant for the purpose of volcano surveillance

Data Mining in the Context of Monitoring Mt Etna, Italy

The persistent volcanic activity of Mt Etna makes the continuous monitoring of multidisciplinary data a first-class issue. Indeed, the monitoring systems rapidly accumulate huge quantity of data, arising specific problems of andling and interpretation. In order to respond to these problems, the INGV staff has developed a number of software tools for data mining. These tools have the scope of identifying structures in the data that can be related to volcanic activity, furnishing criteria for the identification of precursory scenarios. In particular, we use methods of clustering and classification in which data are divided into groups according to apriori- defined measures of similarity or distance. Data groups may assume various shapes, such as convex clouds or complex concave bodies.The “KKAnalysis” software package is a basket of clustering methods. Currently, it is one of the key techniques of the tremor-based automatic alarm systems of INGV Osservatorio Etneo. It exploits both Self-Organizing Maps and Fuzzy Clustering. Beside seismic data, the software has been applied to the geochemical composition of eruptive products as well as a combined analysis of gas-emission (radon) and seismic data. The “DBSCAN” package exploits a concept based on density-based clustering. This method allows discovering clusters with arbitrary shape. Clusters are defined as dense regions of objects in the data space separated by regions of low density. In DBSCAN a cluster grows as long as the density within a group of objects exceeds some threshold. In the context of volcano monitoring, the method is particularly promising in the recognition of ash particles as they have a rather irregular shape. The “MOTIF” software allows us to identify typical waveforms in time series, outperforming methods like cross-correlation that entail a high computational effort. MOTIF can recognize the non-imilarity of two patterns on a small number of data points without going through the whole length of data vectors. All the developments aforementioned come along with modules for feature extraction and post-processing. Specific attention is devoted to the obustness of the feature extraction to avoid misinterpretations due to the presence of disturbances from environmental noise or other undesired signals originating from the source, which are not relevant for the purpose of volcano surveillance

Predictors of mortality following emergency open colectomy for ischemic colitis: A single-center experience

Background: Ischemic colitis (IC) is a severe emergency in gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of the present study was to identify the predictors of postoperative mortality after emergent open colectomy for IC treatment. Additionally, we compared postoperative outcomes of patients undergoing emergent colectomy due to aortic surgery-related IC (AS-IC group) vs. other IC etiologies (Other-IC group). Methods: We analyzed records of consecutive patients who underwent emergency open colectomy for IC between 2008 and 2019. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify clinical and operative parameters associated with postoperative mortality. The AS-IC and Other-IC groups were compared for mortality, morbidity, ICU stay, hospital stay, and survival. Results: During the study period, 94 patients (mean age, 67.4 ± 13.7 years) underwent emergent open colectomy for IC. In the majority of cases, IC involved the entire colon (53.2%) and vasopressor agents were required preoperatively (63.8%) and/or intraoperatively (78.8%). Thirty-four patients underwent surgery due to AS-IC, whereas 60 due to Other-IC causes. In the AS-IC group, 9 patients had undergone endovascular aortic repair and 25 open aortic surgery; 61.8% of patients needed aortic surgery for ruptured abdominal aortic aneurism (AAA). Overall, 66 patients (70.2%) died within 90 days from surgery. The AS-IC and Other-IC groups showed similar operative outcomes and postoperative complication rates. However, the duration of the ICU stay (19 days vs. 11 days; p = 0.003) and of the total hospital stay (22 days vs. 16 days; p = 0.016) was significantly longer for the AS-IC group than for the Other-IC group. The rate of intestinal continuity restoration at 1 year after surgery was higher for the Other-IC group than for the AS-IC group (58.8% vs. 22.2%; p = 0.05). In the multivariate model, preoperative increased lactate levels, a delay between signs/symptoms' onset and surgery > 12 h, and the occurrence of postoperative acute kidney injury were statistically associated with postoperative mortality. Neither IC etiology (aortic surgery vs. other etiology) nor ruptured AAA was associated with postoperative mortality. Conclusion: Emergency open colectomy for IC is associated with high postoperative mortality, which appears to be unrelated to the IC etiology. Preoperative lactate levels, > 12-h delay to surgery, and postoperative acute kidney injury are independent predictors of postoperative mortality

Prevalence of Use and Cost of Biological Drugs for Cancer Treatment: A 5-Year Picture from Southern Italy

Background and Objectives: Considering the clinical and economic burden of biological drugs in cancer treatment, it is necessary to explore how these drugs are used in routine care in Italy and how they affect the sustainability of the National Health Services. This study aimed to investigate the prevalence of use and costs of biological drugs for cancer treatment in a general population of Southern Italy in the years 2010–2014. Methods: This was a retrospective, observational study using data from the healthcare administrative databases of Messina Province for the years 2010–2014. In this study, users of biological drugs for cancer treatment were characterized and the prevalence of use and costs were calculated over time. The potential impact of biosimilars on the expenditure was also estimated. Results: Of a population of 653,810 residents in the Messina area during the study years, 2491 (0.4%) patients received at least one study drug. The most frequently used were monoclonal antibodies (mAbs) (n = 1607; 64.5%) and tyrosine kinase inhibitors (TKIs) (n = 609; 24.4%). mAbs were mainly used by females (60.3%) for metastasis due to an unspecified primary tumor, lymphomas, or breast cancer (24.2, 16.7, and 13.7%, respectively). Most users of small molecules were males (56.3%) being treated for multiple myeloma, metastasis due to unspecified primary tumor, leukemia, and lung cancer (13.1, 12.6, 9.5, and 8.9%, respectively). During the study years, the prevalence of use doubled from 0.9 to 1.8 per 1000 inhabitants; likewise, the related expenditure grew from €6.6 to €13.6 million. Based on our forecasts, this expenditure will grow to €25 million in 2020. Assuming a 50% biosimilar uptake (trastuzumab and rituximab), a potential yearly saving of almost €1 million may be achieved. Conclusions: In recent years, the use and costs of biological drugs in cancer patients have increased dramatically in a large population from Southern Italy. This trend may be counterbalanced by adopting biosimilars once they are available. Claims databases represent a valid tool to monitor the uptake of newly marketed biological drugs and biosimilars

Author Correction to: Prevalence of Use and Cost of Biological Drugs for Cancer Treatment: A 5-Year Picture from Southern Italy

Unfortunately, many errors were identified in the published article. The original article was corrected

Analogue modelling of basin inversion: a review and future perspectives

Basin inversion involves the reversal of subsidence in a basin due to compressional tectonic forces, leading to uplift of the basin's sedimentary infill. Detailed knowledge of basin inversion is of great importance for scientific, societal, and economic reasons, spurring continued research efforts to better understand the processes involved. Analogue tectonic modelling forms a key part of these efforts, and analogue modellers have conducted numerous studies of basin inversion. In this review paper we recap the advances in our knowledge of basin inversion processes acquired through analogue modelling studies, providing an up-to-date summary of the state of analogue modelling of basin inversion. We describe the different definitions of basin inversion that are being applied by researchers, why basin inversion has been historically an important research topic and what the general mechanics involved in basin inversion are. We subsequently treat the wide range of different experimental approaches used for basin inversion modelling, with attention to the various materials, set-ups, and techniques used for model monitoring and analysing the model results. Our new systematic overviews of generalized model results reveal the diversity of these results, which depend greatly on the chosen set-up, model layering and (oblique) kinematics of inversion, and 3D along-strike structural and kinematic variations in the system. We show how analogue modelling results are in good agreement with numerical models, and how these results help researchers to better understand natural examples of basin inversion. In addition to reviewing the past efforts in the field of analogue modelling, we also shed light on future modelling challenges and identify a number of opportunities for follow-up research. These include the testing of force boundary conditions, adding geological processes such as sedimentation, transport, and erosion; applying state-of-the-art modelling and quantification techniques; and establishing best modelling practices. We also suggest expanding the scope of basin inversion modelling beyond the traditional upper crustal “North Sea style” of inversion, which may contribute to the ongoing search for clean energy resources. It follows that basin inversion modelling can bring valuable new insights, providing a great incentive to continue our efforts in this field. We therefore hope that this review paper will form an inspiration for future analogue modelling studies of basin inversion.</p

Single-day therapy: an expert opinion on a recent development for the episodic treatment of recurrent genital herpes

One common method for treating recurrent genital herpes outbreaks is 3–5 day episodic therapy with nucleoside analogues. However, since maximum viral replication occurs within 24 h after the onset of symptoms, short-term patient-initiated episodic therapy started at prodromal onset or at the first appearance of lesions in patients without a prodrome may represent an important option. In a recent randomized trial, single-day famciclovir treatment decreased lesion healing time and the duration of pain and other symptoms by approximately 2 days compared to placebo, and prevented progression to a full outbreak in almost one in four patients. Because single-day treatment is more convenient than traditional therapies, it may lead to improved patient compliance and better overall management of recurrent genital herpes outbreaks