Review of Structural Adjustment in the Philippines

This article has been delivered during the Central Bank Diamond Jubilee celebration on November 21,1988. It reviews the issues of Philippine structural adjustments with a focus on the identification of elements in the past Philippine efforts that appear to be critical in the future adjustment endeavor. It also discusses the problems and the potentials of policy-based lending in support of future structural adjustment efforts in the Philippines.tax structure, agrarian reform, liberalization, structural adjustment, balance of payments, structural reforms, policy adjustment, industrialization

Review of Structural Adjustment in the Philippines

This article has been delivered during the Central Bank Diamond Jubilee celebration on November 21,1988. It reviews the issues of Philippine structural adjustments with a focus on the identification of elements in the past Philippine efforts that appear to be critical in the future adjustment endeavor. It also discusses the problems and the potentials of policy-based lending in support of future structural adjustment efforts in the Philippines.tax structure, agrarian reform, liberalization, structural adjustment, balance of payments, structural reforms, policy adjustment, industrialization

Instrumental variables quantile regression for panel data with measurement errors

This paper develops an instrumental variables estimator for quantile regression in panel data with fixed effects. Asymptotic properties of the instrumental variables estimator are studied for large N and T when Na/T ! 0, for some a > 0. Wald and Kolmogorov-Smirnov type tests for general linear restrictions are developed. The estimator is applied to the problem of measurement errors in variables, which induces endogeneity and as a result bias in the model. We derive an approximation to the bias in the quantile regression fixed effects estimator in the presence of measurement error and show its connection to similar effects in standard least squares models. Monte Carlo simulations are conducted to evaluate the finite sample properties of the estimator in terms of bias and root mean squared error. Finally, the methods are applied to a model of firm investment. The results show interesting heterogeneity in the Tobin’s q and cash flow sensitivities of investment. In both cases, the sensitivities are monotonically increasing along the quantiles

How many nucleosynthesis processes exist at low metallicity?

Abundances of low-metallicity stars offer a unique opportunity to understand the contribution and conditions of the different processes that synthesize heavy elements. Many old, metal-poor stars show a robust abundance pattern for elements heavier than Ba, and a less robust pattern between Sr and Ag. Here we probe if two nucleosynthesis processes are sufficient to explain the stellar abundances at low metallicity, and we carry out a site independent approach to separate the contribution from these two processes or components to the total observationally derived abundances. Our approach provides a method to determine the contribution of each process to the production of elements such as Sr, Zr, Ba, and Eu. We explore the observed star-to-star abundance scatter as a function of metallicity that each process leads to. Moreover, we use the deduced abundance pattern of one of the nucleosynthesis components to constrain the astrophysical conditions of neutrino-driven winds from core-collapse supernovae.Comment: 13 pages, published in Ap

Three Complications in Asian Economic Recovery

Summary Three features in the Asian economic crisis complicate recovery. First, because the crisis is centred in the private sector, the recognition and workout of losses, especially on the part of stock?holders of financial companies, have been slow. Second, the credit?centredness of the Asian economic crisis demands a significant supply of political will and cohesion, and the supply of both has been sharply curtailed by the crisis. Third, exchange rates (which have overadjusted and are generally believed to be at grossly undervalued levels) have been unstable over an extended period and international markets have enforced more fragility in response to domestic efforts to reflate economies

Threshold quantile autoregressive models

We study in this article threshold quantile autoregressive processes. In particular we propose estimation and inference of the parameters in nonlinear quantile processes when the threshold parameter defining nonlinearities is known for each quantile, and also when the parameter vector is estimated consistently. We derive the asymptotic properties of the nonlinear threshold quantile autoregressive estimator. In addition, we develop hypothesis tests for detecting threshold nonlinearities in the quantile process when the threshold parameter vector is not identified under the null hypothesis. In this case we propose to approximate the asymptotic distribution of the composite test using a p-value transformation. This test contributes to the literature on nonlinearity tests by extending Hansen’s (Econometrica 64, 1996, pp.413-430) methodology for the conditional mean process to the entire quantile process. We apply the proposed methodology to model the dynamics of US unemployment growth after the Second World War. The results show evidence of important heterogeneity associated with unemployment, and strong asymmetric persistence on unemployment growth

Who benefits from reducing the cost of formality? Quantile regression discontinuity analysis

This paper studies the effects of increasing formality via tax reduction and simplification schemes on micro-firm performance. It uses the 1997 Brazilian SIMPLES program. We develop a simple theoretical model to show that SIMPLES has an impact only on a segment of the micro-firm population, for which the effect of formality on firm performance can be identified, and that can be analyzed along the single dimensional quantiles of the conditional firm revenues. To estimate the effect of formality, we use an econometric approach that compares eligible and non-eligible firms, born before and after SIMPLES in a local interval about the introduction of SIMPLES. We use an estimator that combines both quantile regression and the regression discontinuity identification strategy. The empirical results corroborate the positive effect of formality on microfirms' performance and produce a clear characterization of who benefits from these programs