Optimal control of a fractional order epidemic model with application to human respiratory syncytial virus infection

A human respiratory syncytial virus surveillance system was implemented in Florida in 1999, to support clinical decision-making for prophylaxis of premature newborns. Recently, a local periodic SEIRS mathematical model was proposed in [Stat. Optim. Inf. Comput. 6 (2018), no.1, 139--149] to describe real data collected by Florida's system. In contrast, here we propose a non-local fractional (non-integer) order model. A fractional optimal control problem is then formulated and solved, having treatment as the control. Finally, a cost-effectiveness analysis is carried out to evaluate the cost and the effectiveness of proposed control measures during the intervention period, showing the superiority of obtained results with respect to previous ones.Comment: This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is with 'Chaos, Solitons & Fractals', available from [http://www.elsevier.com/locate/issn/09600779]. Submitted 23-July-2018; Revised 14-Oct-2018; Accepted 15-Oct-2018. arXiv admin note: substantial text overlap with arXiv:1801.0963

Optimal Control and Sensitivity Analysis of a Fractional Order TB Model

A Caputo fractional-order mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of tuberculosis (TB) was recently proposed in [Math. Model. Nat. Phenom. 13 (2018), no. 1, Art. 9]. Here, a sensitivity analysis of that model is done, showing the importance of accuracy of parameter values. A fractional optimal control (FOC) problem is then formulated and solved, with the rate of treatment as the control variable. Finally, a cost-effectiveness analysis is performed to assess the cost and the effectiveness of the control measures during the intervention, showing in which conditions FOC is useful with respect to classical (integer-order) optimal control.Comment: This is a preprint of a paper whose final and definite form is with 'Statistics Opt. Inform. Comput.', Vol. 7, No 2 (2019). See [http://www.IAPress.org]. Submitted 09/Sept/2018; Revised 10/Dec/2018; Accepted 11/Dec/2018. arXiv admin note: text overlap with arXiv:1801.09634, arXiv:1810.0690

Analysis of unmitigated large break loss of coolant accidents using MELCOR code

In the framework of severe accident research activity developed by ENEA, a MELCOR nodalization of a generic Pressurized Water Reactor of 900 MWe has been developed. The aim of this paper is to present the analysis of MELCOR code calculations concerning two independent unmitigated large break loss of coolant accident transients, occurring in the cited type of reactor. In particular, the analysis and comparison between the transients initiated by an unmitigated double-ended cold leg rupture and an unmitigated double-ended hot leg rupture in the loop 1 of the primary cooling system is presented herein. This activity has been performed focusing specifically on the in-vessel phenomenology that characterizes this kind of accidents. The analysis of the thermal-hydraulic transient phenomena and the core degradation phenomena is therefore here presented. The analysis of the calculated data shows the capability of the code to reproduce the phenomena typical of these transients and permits their phenomenological study. A first sequence of main events is here presented and shows that the cold leg break transient results faster than the hot leg break transient because of the position of the break. Further analyses are in progress to quantitatively assess the results of the code nodalization for accident management strategy definition and fission product source term evaluation