Entry in the ADHD drugs market: Welfare impact of generics and me-toos

Recent decades have seen a growth in treatments for attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) including many branded and generic drugs. In the early 2000's, new drug entry dramatically altered market shares. We estimate a demand system for ADHD drugs and assess the welfare impact of new drugs. We find that entry induced large welfare gains by reducing prices of substitute drugs, and by providing alternative delivery mechanisms for existing molecules. Our results suggest that the success of follow-on patented drugs may come from unanticipated innovations like delivery mechanisms, a factor ignored by proposals to retard new follow-on drug approvals

Political institutions and debt crises

This paper shows that political institutions matter in explaining defaults on external and domestic debt obligations. We explore a large number of political and macroeconomic variables using a non-parametric technique to predict safety from default. The advantage of this technique is that it is able to identify patterns in the data that are not captured in standard probit analysis. We find that political factors matter, and do so in different ways for democratic and non-democratic regimes, and for domestic and external debt. In democracies, a parliamentary system or sufficient checks and balances almost guarantee the absence of default on external debt when economic fundamentals or liquidity are sufficiently strong. In dictatorships, high stability and tenure play a similar role for default on domestic debt

Lunar Outgassing, Transient Phenomena and The Return to The Moon, I: Existing Data

Herein the transient lunar phenomena (TLP) report database is subjected to a discriminating statistical filter robust against sites of spurious reports, and produces a restricted sample that may be largely reliable. This subset is highly correlated geographically with the catalog of outgassing events seen by the Apollo 15, 16 and Lunar Prospector alpha-particle spectrometers for episodic Rn-222 gas release. Both this robust TLP sample and even the larger, unfiltered sample are highly correlated with the boundary between mare and highlands, as are both deep and shallow moonquakes, as well as Po-210, a long-lived product of Rn-222 decay and a further tracer of outgassing. This offers another significant correlation relating TLPs and outgassing, and may tie some of this activity to sagging mare basalt plains (perhaps mascons). Additionally, low-level but likely significant TLP activity is connected to recent, major impact craters (while moonquakes are not), which may indicate the effects of cracks caused by the impacts, or perhaps avalanches, allowing release of gas. The majority of TLP (and Rn-222) activity, however, is confined to one site that produced much of the basalt in the Procellarum Terrane, and it seems plausible that this TLP activity may be tied to residual outgassing from the formerly largest volcanic ffusion sites from the deep lunar interior. With the coming in the next few years of robotic spacecraft followed by human exploration, the study of TLPs and outgassing is both promising and imperiled. We will have an unprecedented pportunity to study lunar outgassing, but will also deal with a greater burden of anthropogenic lunar gas than ever produced. There is a pressing need to study lunar atmosphere and its sources while still pristine. [Abstract abridged.]Comment: 35 pages, 3 figures, submitted to Icarus. Other papers in series found at http://www.astro.columbia.edu/~arlin/TLP

The effect of food availability, age or size on the RNA/DNA ratio of individually measured herring larvae: laboratory calibration

RNA/DNA ratios in individual herring (Clupea harengus) larvae (collected from Kiel Bay, Baltic Sea, in 1989) were measured and proved suitable for determining nutritional status. Significant differences between fed and starving larvae appeared after 3 to 4 d of food deprivation in larvae older than 10 d after hatching. The RNA/DNA ratio showed an increase with age or length of the larvae and was less pronounced in starving larvae compared to fed larvae. The individual variability of RNA/DNA ratios in relation to larval length of fed larvae and of larvae deprived of food for intervals of 6 to 9 d is presented. Based on the length dependency and the individual variability found within the RNA/DNA ratios, a laboratory calibration is given to determine whether a larva caught in the field has been starving or not. An example for a field application is shown