Energy projections for African countries

This report provides insights on energy supply and demand, power generation, investments and total system costs, water consumption and withdrawal by the energy sector as well as carbon dioxide emissions for the African continent. The energy supply systems of forty-seven African countries are modelled individually and connected via gas and electricity trade links to identify the cost-optimal solution to satisfy each country's total final energy demand for the period 2015-2065. In this analysis, The Electricity Model Base for Africa (TEMBA) was extended to include a simple representation of the full energy system. It was also updated to include new data. Simulations were run using the medium- to long-term Open Source Energy Modelling System tool (OSeMOSYS). The TEMBA model produces aggregate results for the whole continental energy system and more detailed ones for the power system of each African country. The scenarios examined in this study consider different emission trajectories and technology availability. The Reference scenario considers the national energy policies that were in place until 2017, whereas the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios examine emission levels aligned with the climate targets agreed under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Paris Agreement. The scenarios have been aligned with the "Global Energy and Climate Outlook 2018: Greenhouse gas emissions and energy balances" report of the Joint Research Centre (Keramidas et al., 2018). The results demonstrate that power generation capacity will need to increase 10-fold from 2015 to 2065 to meet projected electricity demands. A significant proportion of this capacity will likely consist of renewable energy sources, particularly under the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios, as technology costs fall. On the contrary, there will only be little investment for new coal generation. In addition, a number of African countries will invest in nuclear power plants and CCS technologies (biomass, coal, gas) in the future in order to achieve the emission targets set in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. The results also indicate how water demand from the energy sector could evolve. Under the Reference scenario, it is estimated that by 2065 the African energy system will contribute to a water withdrawal of approximately 4% of the total renewable water resources (TRWR) in Africa (3,950 bcm) (FAO - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, n.d.). On the one hand, this share appears meagre, but in reality, this number must be analysed in the perspective of the nexus between water for food, energy, household and productive uses. Most of the thermal power infrastructure is not located in remote places and is rather near to population centres. This creates an added complexity to future infrastructure planning. On the other hand, water withdrawals are expected to decrease to 1.2% and 1.6% of TRWR in the 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios respectively by 2065 owing to deep decarbonisation of the energy sector.JRC.C.7-Knowledge for the Energy Unio

Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems interactions – From key concepts to model implementation with OSeMOSYS

The Climate, Land, Energy and Water systems (CLEWs) approach guides the development of integrated assessments. The approach includes an analytical component that can be performed using simple accounting methods, soft-linking tools, incorporating cross-systems considerations in sectoral models, or using one modelling tool to represent CLEW systems. This paper describes how a CLEWs quantitative analysis can be performed using one single modelling tool, the Open Source Energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS). Although OSeMOSYS was primarily developed for energy systems analysis, the tool’s functionality and flexibility allow for its application to CLEWs. A step-by-step explanation of how climate, land, energy, and water systems can be represented with OSeMOSYS, complemented with the interpretation of sets, parameters, and variables in the OSeMOSYS code, is provided. A hypothetical case serves as the basis for developing a modelling exercise that exemplifies the building of a CLEWs model in OSeMOSYS. System-centred scenario analysis is performed with the integrated model example to illustrate its application. The analysis of results shows how integrated insights can be derived from the quantitative exercise in the form of conflicts, trade-offs, opportunities, and synergies. In addition to the modelling exercise, using the OSeMOSYS-CLEWs example in teaching, training and open science is explored to support knowledge transfer and advancement in the field

Capacity development and knowledge transfer on the climate, land, water and energy nexus

Applying the concept of the nexus of climate, land, energy and water systems (CLEWs) to sustainable development requires the integration of knowledge from different disciplines to solve complicated multi-systems challenges. Such knowledge and expertise are not solely situated in scientific research’s theoretical realm (i.e. branch of knowledge). For the approach to be successful, integration is also required in a variety of decision spaces. The development of nexus knowledge, which we define as information related to systems’ physical, natural and socioeconomic interactions, broadly emerged from project-oriented research and case study applications, extending the system’s coverage to several resource systems, climate and governance

Spatial band-pass filtering aids decoding musical genres from auditory cortex 7T fMRI

Spatial filtering strategies, combined with multivariate decoding analysis of BOLD images, have been used to investigate the nature of the neural signal underlying the discriminability of brain activity patterns evoked by sensory stimulation – primarily in the visual cortex. Previous research indicates that such signals are spatially broadband in nature, and are not primarily comprised of fine-grained activation patterns. However, it is unclear whether this is a general property of the BOLD signal, or whether it is specific to the details of employed analyses and stimuli. Here we applied an analysis strategy from a previous study on decoding visual orientation from V1 to publicly available, high-resolution 7T fMRI on the response BOLD response to musical genres in primary auditory cortex. The results show that the pattern of decoding accuracies with respect to different types and levels of spatial filtering is comparable to that obtained from V1, despite considerable differences in the respective cortical circuitry

Carrying out a multi-model integrated assessment of European energy transition pathways: Challenges and benefits

With the publication of the European Green Deal, the European Union has committed to reaching carbon neutrality by 2050. The envisaged reductions of direct greenhouse gases emissions are seen as technically feasible, but if a wrong path is pursued, significant unintended impacts across borders, sectors, societies and ecosystems may follow. Without the insights gained from an impact assessment framework reaching beyond the techno-economic perspective, the pursuit of direct emission reductions may lead to counterproductive outcomes in the long run. We discuss the opportunities and challenges related to the creation and use of an integrated assessment framework built to inform the European Commission on the path to decarbonisation. The framework is peculiar in that it goes beyond existing ones in its scope, depth and cross-scale coverage, by use of numerous specialised models and case studies. We find challenges of consistency that can be overcome by linking modelling tools iteratively in some cases, harmonising modelling assumptions in others, comparing model outputs in others. We find the highest added value of the framework in additional insights it provides on the technical feasibility of decarbonisation pathways, on vulnerability aspects and on unintended environmental and health impacts on national and sub-national scale.(c) 2022 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/)

From the development of an open-source energy modelling tool to its application and the creation of communities of practice: The example of OSeMOSYS

In the last decades, energy modelling has supported energy planning by offering insights into the dynamics between energy access, resource use, and sustainable development. Especially in recent years, there has been an attempt to strengthen the science-policy interface and increase the involvement of society in energy planning processes. This has, both in the EU and worldwide, led to the development of open-source and transparent energy modelling practices. This paper describes the role of an open-source energy modelling tool in the energy planning process and highlights its importance for society. Specifically, it describes the existence and characteristics of the relationship between developing an open-source, freely available tool and its application, dissemination and use for policy making. Using the example of the Open Source energy Modelling System (OSeMOSYS), this work focuses on practices that were established within the community and that made the framework's development and application both relevant and scientifically grounded

The Climate, Land, Energy, and Water systems (CLEWs) framework: a retrospective of activities and advances to 2019

Population growth, urbanization and economic development drive the use of resources. Securing access to essential services such as energy, water, and food, while achieving sustainable development, require that policy and planning processes follow an integrated approach. The 'Climate-, Land-, Energy- and Water-systems' (CLEWs) framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. The approach was first introduced by the International Atomic Energy Agency to conduct an integrated systems analysis of a biofuel chain. The framework assists the exploration of interactions between (and within) CLEW systems via quantitative means. Its multi-institutional application to the case of Mauritius in 2012 initiated the deployment of the framework. A vast number of completed and ongoing applications of CLEWs span different spatial and temporal scales, discussing two or more resource interactions under different political contexts. Also, the studies vary in purpose. This shapes the methods that support CLEWs-type analyses. In this paper, we detail the main steps of the CLEWs framework in perspective to its application over the years. We summarise and compare key applications, both published in the scientific literature, as working papers and reports by international organizations. We discuss differences in terms of geographic scope, purpose, interactions represented, analytical approach and stakeholder involvement. In addition, we review other assessments, which contributed to the advancement of the CLEWs framework. The paper delivers recommendations for the future development of the framework, as well as keys to success in this type of evaluations

Integrated analysis of land-use, energy and water systems for ethanol production from sugarcane in Bolivia

The use of biomass for renewable energy production is one alternative to reduce the environmental impacts of energy production worldwide. Sugarcane-based ethanol is one of the most widespread biofuels in the road transport sector and its development has been encouraged by strong incentives on production and use in several countries. The growing realization on the environmental impacts of ethanol production indicates the need to increase the efficient utilization of biomass resources by optimizing the production chain sustainably. This paper evaluates enhancements in the ethanol production chain quantitatively by identifying opportunities for agricultural intensification and investments in advanced biorefineries in a least-cost optimization model. Results of our model show that significant cost and environmental benefits can be achieved by modernizing sugarcane agriculture in Bolivia. Demands for ethanol and sugar can be met cost-effectively by increasing sugarcane yields from the current country-average of 55.34 ton/ha to 85.7 ton/ha in 2030 with a moderate cropland expansion of 11.4 thousand hectares in the period 2019-2030. Our results further suggest that it is cost-optimal to invest in efficient cogeneration in biorefineries to maximize the renewable energy output and the economic benefits of sugarcane ethanol. Finally, biofuel support in the range of 8-10 US$/GJ is required for investments in second-generation ethanol in biorefineries to be cost-competitive in the medium-term.

Exergy as a measure of oil well potential

The growing problem of non-renewable resources scarcity led analysts and researchers to deepen Second Law analysis methods in order to optimize the consumption of resources in energy systems and related supply chains. Since little focus has been made so far on the second law analyses applied to the upstream of Oil & Gas supply chains, in this paper a theoretical exergy model for the evaluation of oil streams potential is presented. The model is applied to two multiphase multi-component oil streams, using field data. The objective of the model is to determine the net exergy of a generic oil stream, bringing it from the well head conditions to a defined dead state through a series of reversible processes. The ideal process is modeled using a modular representation, where each step represents a single thermodynamic transformation to equilibrium towards the dead state (Pressure and Temperature, Species Separation and Chemical composition). Some of the contributions are positive (work may be extracted from the stream) other are negative (work is required to complete the transformation). The net exergy of the stream is the algebraic sum of such contributions. This ideal value can be assumed to assess the ideal energetic potential of the oil stream