Global associations between UVR exposure and current eczema prevalence in children from ISAAC Phase Three

We sought to examine the relationship globally between UV dose exposure and current eczema prevalences. ISAAC Phase Three provided data on eczema prevalence for 13-14 year-olds in 214 centres in 87 countries and for 6-7 year-olds in 132 centres in 57 countries. Linear and non-linear associations between (natural log transformed) eczema prevalence and the mean, maximum, minimum, standard deviation and range of monthly UV dose exposures were assessed using linear mixed-effects regression models. For the 13-14 year olds, the country-level eczema prevalence was positively and linearly associated with country-level monthly mean (prevalence ratio: 1.31, 95% confidence interval: [1.05, 1.63] per kJ/m2) and minimum (1.25 [1.06, 1.47] per kJ/m2) UV dose exposure. Linear and non-linear associations were also observed for other metrics of UV. Results were similar in trend, but non-significant, for the fewer centres with 6-7 year-olds (e.g. 1.24 [0.96, 1.59] per kJ/m2 for country-level monthly mean UV). No consistent within-country associations were observed (e.g. 1.05 [0.89, 1.23] and 0.92 [0.71, 1.18] per kJ/m2 for center-level monthly mean UV, for the 13-14 and 6-7 year-olds, respectively). These ecological results support a role for UV exposure in explaining some of the variation in global childhood eczema prevalence

Hypercomplex Integrable Systems

In this paper we study hypercomplex manifolds in four dimensions. Rather than using an approach based on differential forms, we develop a dual approach using vector fields. The condition on these vector fields may then be interpreted as Lax equations, exhibiting the integrability properties of such manifolds. A number of different field equations for such hypercomplex manifolds are derived, one of which is in Cauchy-Kovaleskaya form which enables a formal general solution to be given. Various other properties of the field equations and their solutions are studied, such as their symmetry properties and the associated hierarchy of conservation laws.Comment: Latex file, 19 page

Hydrodynamic reductions of the heavenly equation

We demonstrate that Pleba\'nski's first heavenly equation decouples in infinitely many ways into a triple of commuting (1+1)-dimensional systems of hydrodynamic type which satisfy the Egorov property. Solving these systems by the generalized hodograph method, one can construct exact solutions of the heavenly equation parametrized by arbitrary functions of a single variable. We discuss explicit examples of hydrodynamic reductions associated with the equations of one-dimensional nonlinear elasticity, linearly degenerate systems and the equations of associativity.Comment: 14 page

Persistent pollutants exceed toxic thresholds in a freshwater top predator decades after legislative control

Declining emissions of persistent organic pollutants (POPs), subject to international control under the Stockholm convention, are not consistently reflected in biotic samples. To assess spatial and temporal variation in organochlorine pesticides and PCBs in UK freshwaters, we analysed tissues of a sentinel predator, the Eurasian otter, Lutra lutra between 1992 and 2009. Past declines in otter populations have been linked to POPs and it is unclear whether otter recovery is hampered in any areas by their persistence. PCBs, DDT (and derivatives), dieldrin and HCB were detected in over 80% of 755 otter livers sampled. Concentrations of ∑PCB, ∑DDT and dieldrin in otter livers declined across the UK, but there was no significant time trend for ∑PCB-TEQ (WHO toxic equivalency, Van den Berg et al., 2006) or HCB. In general, higher concentrations were found in the midlands and eastern regions, and lowest concentrations in western regions. Concentrations of PCBs and HCB in otters increased near the coast, potentially reflecting higher pollutant levels in estuarine systems. Decades after legislative controls, concentrations of these legacy pollutants still pose a risk to otters and other freshwater predators, with spatially widespread exceedance of thresholds above which reproduction or survival has been reduced in related species

Re-examining the consumption-wealth relationship : the role of model uncertainty

This paper discusses the consumption-wealth relationship. Following the recent influential workof Lettau and Ludvigson [e.g. Lettau and Ludvigson (2001), (2004)], we use data on consumption, assets andlabor income and a vector error correction framework. Key …ndings of their work are that consumption doesrespond to permanent changes in wealth in the expected manner, but that most changes in wealth are transitoryand have no e¤ect on consumption. We investigate the robustness of these results to model uncertainty andargue for the use of Bayesian model averaging. We …nd that there is model uncertainty with regards to thenumber of cointegrating vectors, the form of deterministic components, lag length and whether the cointegratingresiduals a¤ect consumption and income directly. Whether this uncertainty has important empirical implicationsdepends on the researcher's attitude towards the economic theory used by Lettau and Ludvigson. If we workwith their model, our findings are very similar to theirs. However, if we work with a broader set of models andlet the data speak, we obtain somewhat di¤erent results. In the latter case, we …nd that the exact magnitudeof the role of permanent shocks is hard to estimate precisely. Thus, although some support exists for the viewthat their role is small, we cannot rule out the possibility that they have a substantive role to play

High-sensitivity troponin I concentrations are a marker of an advanced hypertrophic response and adverse outcomes in patients with aortic stenosis

Aims: High-sensitivity cardiac troponin I (cTnI) assays hold promise in detecting the transition from hypertrophy to heart failure in aortic stenosis. We sought to investigate the mechanism for troponin release in patients with aortic stenosis and whether plasma cTnI concentrations are associated with long-term outcome. Methods and results: Plasma cTnI concentrations were measured in two patient cohorts using a high-sensitivity assay. First, in the Mechanism Cohort, 122 patients with aortic stenosis (median age 71, 67% male, aortic valve area 1.0 ± 0.4 cm2) underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance and echocardiography to assess left ventricular (LV) myocardial mass, function, and fibrosis. The indexed LV mass and measures of replacement fibrosis (late gadolinium enhancement) were associated with cTnI concentrations independent of age, sex, coronary artery disease, aortic stenosis severity, and diastolic function. In the separate Outcome Cohort, 131 patients originally recruited into the Scottish Aortic Stenosis and Lipid Lowering Trial, Impact of REgression (SALTIRE) study, had long-term follow-up for the occurrence of aortic valve replacement (AVR) and cardiovascular deaths. Over a median follow-up of 10.6 years (1178 patient-years), 24 patients died from a cardiovascular cause and 60 patients had an AVR. Plasma cTnI concentrations were associated with AVR or cardiovascular death HR 1.77 (95% CI, 1.22 to 2.55) independent of age, sex, systolic ejection fraction, and aortic stenosis severity. Conclusions: In patients with aortic stenosis, plasma cTnI concentration is associated with advanced hypertrophy and replacement myocardial fibrosis as well as AVR or cardiovascular death

On the B\"acklund Transformation for the Moyal Korteweg-de Vries Hierarchy

We study the B\"acklund symmetry for the Moyal Korteweg-de Vries (KdV) hierarchy based on the Kuperschmidt-Wilson Theorem associated with second Gelfand-Dickey structure with respect to the Moyal bracket, which generalizes the result of Adler for the ordinary KdV.Comment: 9 pages, Revte

A Quasiperiodic Gibbons--Hawking Metric and Spacetime Foam

We present a quasiperiodic self-dual metric of the Gibbons--Hawking type with one gravitational instanton per spacetime cell. The solution, based on an adaptation of Weierstrassian $\zeta$ and $\sigma$ functions to three dimensions, conforms to a definition of spacetime foam given by Hawking.Comment: 14 pages, Late

A class of nonlinear wave equations containing the continuous Toda case

We consider a nonlinear field equation which can be derived from a binomial lattice as a continuous limit. This equation, containing a perturbative friction-like term and a free parameter $\gamma$, reproduces the Toda case (in absence of the friction-like term) and other equations of physical interest, by choosing particular values of $\gamma$. We apply the symmetry and the approximate symmetry approach, and the prolongation technique. Our main purpose is to check the limits of validity of different analytical methods in the study of nonlinear field equations. We show that the equation under investigation with the friction-like term is characterized by a finite-dimensional Lie algebra admitting a realization in terms of boson annhilation and creation operators. In absence of the friction-like term, the equation is linearized and connected with equations of the Bessel type. Examples of exact solutions are displayed, and the algebraic structure of the equation is discussed.Comment: Latex file + [equations.sty], 22 p

A Quasi-Classical Model of Intermediate Velocity Particle Production in Asymmetric Heavy Ion Reactions

The particle emission at intermediate velocities in mass asymmetric reactions is studied within the framework of classical molecular dynamics. Two reactions in the Fermi energy domain were modelized, $^{58}$Ni+C and $^{58}$Ni+Au at 34.5 MeV/nucleon. The availability of microscopic correlations at all times allowed a detailed study of the fragment formation process. Special attention was paid to the physical origin of fragments and emission timescales, which allowed us to disentangle the different processes involved in the mid-rapidity particle production. Consequently, a clear distinction between a prompt pre- equilibrium emission and a delayed aligned asymmetric breakup of the heavier partner of the reaction was achieved.Comment: 8 pages, 7 figures. Final version: figures were redesigned, and a new section discussing the role of Coulomb in IMF production was include