An integrative approach based on probabilistic modelling and statistical inference for morpho-statistical characterization of astronomical data

This paper describes several applications in astronomy and cosmology that are addressed using probabilistic modelling and statistical inference

A first analysis of the mean motion of CHAMP

The present study consists in studying the mean orbital motion of the CHAMP satellite, through a single long arc on a period of time of 200 days in 2001. We actually investigate the sensibility of its mean motion to its accelerometric data, as measures of the surface forces, over that period. In order to accurately determine the mean motion of CHAMP, we use “observed&quot; mean orbital elements computed, by filtering, from 1-day GPS orbits. On the other hand, we use a semi-analytical model to compute the arc. It consists in numerically integrating the effects of the mean potentials (due to the Earth and the Moon and Sun), and the effects of mean surfaces forces acting on the satellite. These later are, in case of CHAMP, provided by an averaging of the Gauss system of equations. Results of the fit of the long arc give a relative sensibility of about 10^-3, although our gravitational mean model is not well suited to describe very low altitude orbits. This technique, which is purely dynamical, enables us to control the decreasing of the trajectory altitude, as a possibility to validate accelerometric data on a long term basis.<br><br><b>Key words.</b> Mean orbital motion, accelerometric dat

Effectiveness of GNSS disposal strategies

The management of the Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) and of the Medium Earth Orbit (MEO) region as a whole is a subject that cannot be deferred, due to the growing exploitation and launch rate in that orbital regime. The advent of the European Galileo and the Chinese Beidou constellations significantly added complexity to the system and calls for an adequate global view on the four constellations present in operation. The operation procedures, including maintenance and disposal practices, of the constellations currently deployed were analyzed in order to asses a proper reference simulation scenario. The complex dynamics of the MEO region with all the geopotential and lunisolar resonances was studied to better identify the proper end-of-life orbit for every proposed strategy, taking into account and, whenever possible, exploiting the orbital dynamics in this peculiar region of space. The possibility to exploit low thrust propulsion or non gravitational perturbations with passive de-orbiting devices (and a combination of the two) was analyzed, in view of possible applications in the design of the future generations of the constellations satellites. Several upgrades in the long-term evolution software SDM and DAMAGE were undertaken to properly handle the constellation simulations in every aspect from constellation maintenance to orbital dynamics. A thorough approach considering the fulltime evolving covariance matrix associated with every object was implemented in SDM to compute the collision risk and associated maneuver rate for the constellation satellites. Once the software upgrades will be completed, the effectiveness of the different disposal strategies will be analyzed in terms of residual collision risk and avoidance maneuvers rate

Modelling and Characterizing the Earth Gravity Field: from Basic Principles to Actual Purposes

The Earth is a specific body in the Universe. Nowadays, thanks to the high accuracy of the measurements obtained by different techniques of geodesy, its shape, as well as its gravity field, can be described and characterized in a very precise way, with thousands of parameters: the Earth is a spherical body only in a very first approximation

Solar EUV‐Enhancement and Thermospheric Disturbances

International audienceThe increase of energetic electromagnetic flux during solar flares and particle precipitation during geomagnetic activity are among the most important sources of neutral density disturbances to the Earth's thermosphere. However, disentangling the role of X and EUV radiation during solar flares is difficult due to the rarity of sufficiently isolated EUV-enhancements. Past work investigating the role of EUV-enhancements has been based on simulations only. This study focuses on the analysis of the response of the thermosphere to relatively long-lasting (between 1 and 2 days) EUV-enhancements. These events take place in isolation from coronal mass ejections, but often occur during the recovery phase of flare events. Using the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment and Challenging Minisatellite Payload accelerometer-derived density datasets, we show that the EUV-enhancements slow the thermosphere's recovery from a flare, and maintain a high level density perturbation “plateau” lasting several hours. The level of disturbance was found to be between 30% and 70% compared to the thermosphere's density without any disturbance. The duration of this plateau is long enough that it may be important for estimating satellite drag. Over the duration of the EUV-enhancements, Dst drops are also observed, indicating ring current activity. The proposed physical mechanism driving the Dst changes is linked to the increased production of O+ ions of ionospheric origin, which may occur over the EUV-enhancement period

An Analytical Solution of the Lagrange Equations Valid also for Very Low Eccentricities: Influence of a Central Potential

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A statistical characterisation of the distribution of a cloud of space debris after a break-up in orbit

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Long-Period Variations of the Eccentricity Vector Valid also for Near Circular Orbits around a Non-Spherical Body

Celestial Mechanics and Dynamical Astronomy, v. 94, n. 1, p. 83-104, 2006. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s10569-005-1472-2International audienc