Commitment failures are unlikely to undermine public support for the Paris agreement

ISSN:1758-679

Current surveys may underestimate climate change skepticism evidence from list experiments in Germany and the USA

Strong public support is a prerequisite for ambitious and thus costly climate change mitigation policy, and strong public concern over climate change is a prerequisite for policy support. Why, then, do most public opinion surveys indicate rather high levels of concern and rather strong policy support, while de facto mitigation efforts in most countries remain far from ambitious? One possibility is that survey measures for public concern fail to fully reveal the true attitudes of citizens due to social desirability bias. In this paper, we implemented list-experiments in representative surveys in Germany and the United States (N = 3620 and 3640 respectively) to assess such potential bias. We find evidence that people systematically misreport, that is, understate their disbelief in human caused climate change. This misreporting is particularly strong amongst politically relevant subgroups. Individuals in the top 20% of the income distribution in the United States and supporters of conservative parties in Germany exhibit significantly higher climate change skepticism according to the list experiment, relative to conventional measures. While this does not definitively mean that climate skepticism is a widespread phenomenon in these countries, it does suggest that future research should reconsider how climate change concern is measured, and what subgroups of the population are more susceptible to misreporting and why. Our findings imply that public support for ambitious climate policy may be weaker than existing survey research suggests

Assessing the relative importance of psychological and demographic factors for predicting climate and environmental attitudes

In this paper, we seek to identify robust predictors of individuals’ attitudes towards climate change and environmental degradation. While much of the extant literature has been devoted to the individual explanatory potential of individuals’ characteristics, we focus on the extent to which these characteristics provide robust predictions of climate and environmental attitudes. Thereby, we adjudicate the relative predictive power of psychological and sociodemographic characteristics, as well as the predictive power of combinations of these attributes. To do so, we use a popular machine learning technique, Random Forests, on three surveys fielded in China, Switzerland, and the USA, using a variety of outcome variables. We find that a psychological construct, the consideration of future consequences (CFC) scale, performs well in predicting attitudes, across all contexts and better than traditional explanations of climate attitudes, such as income and education. Given recent advances suggesting potential psychological barriers of behavioural change Public (Weaver, Adm Rev 75:806–816, 2015) and the use of psychological constructs to target persuasive messages (Abrahamse et al., J Environ Psychol 265–276, 2007; Hirsh et al., Psychol Sci 23:578–581, 2012), identifying important predictors, such as the CFC may allow to better understand public’s appetite for climate and environmental policies and increase demand for these policies, in an area where existing efforts have shown to be lacking (Bernauer and McGrath, Nat Clim Chang 6:680–683, 2016; Chapman et al., Nat Clim Chang 7:850–852, 2017)

Command and control or market-based instruments? Public support for policies to address vehicular pollution in Beijing and New Delhi

Environmental protection efforts commonly make use of two types of government interventions: command and control policies (C&C) and market-based instruments (MBIs). While MBIs are favored for their economic efficiency, visible prices on pollution may generate political backlash. We examine whether citizens are more likely to support policies that tend to obfuscate policy costs (C&C), as opposed to MBIs, which impose visible costs. Using conjoint experiments in Beijing and New Delhi, we examine support for ‘policy bundles’, including both C&C policies and MBIs, aimed at limiting air pollution from vehicles. In both cities, increasing fuel taxes (a MBI) reduces policy support. However, pledging revenue usage from fuel taxes to subsidize electric cars or public transport eliminates this negative effect. Furthermore, individuals with a lower evaluation of their government respond more negatively to MBIs. MBIs may be economically efficient, but are politically difficult unless policy-makers can offset visible costs through additional measures

Do exemptions undermine environmental policy support? An experimental stress test on the odd-even road space rationing policy in India

Policies sometimes exempt particular categories of regulatees for reasons of equity and political feasibility. Will the non‐exempt oppose the policy because they shoulder all of the policy costs? We outline an analytic framework for “stress testing” public support among the non‐exempt when they are provided negative information about exemptions and reduced policy effectiveness. Empirically, we study public support for the odd‐even road space rationing policy in India. Using a survey experiment with 2,182 car owners in Bangalore, we find considerable baseline support for this policy. While support among the non‐exempt erodes when they are told about exemptions, there is no additional erosion when they are told that exemptions reduce policy effectiveness. This suggests that the perception of fairness, not policy efficacy, drives the erosion of support among the non‐exempt. Yet the policy survives the stress test because the majority of respondents continue to support it, in spite of support erosion among the non‐exempt (© Wiley 2020).ISSN:1748-5983ISSN:1748-599

Parliament, people or technocrats? Explaining mass public preferences on delegation of policymaking authority

While delegation of policymaking authority from citizens to parliament is the most defining characteristic of representative democracy, public demand for delegating such authority away from legislature/government to technocrats or back to citizens appears to have increased. Drawing on spatial models of voting, we argue that the distance between individuals’ ideal policy points, the status quo, experts’ policy positions and aggregated societal policy preferences can help explain whether individuals prefer to delegate decision-making power away from parliament and, if so, to whom. The effects of individual’s preference distance from these ideal points are likely to be stronger the more salient the policy issue is for the respective individual. We test this argument using survey experiments in Germany, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. The analysis provides evidence for the empirical implications of our theoretical arguments. The research presented here contributes to better understanding variation in citizens’ support for representative democracy and preferences for delegating policymaking authority away from parliament

Working with simple machines

A set of examples is provided that illustrate the use of work as applied to simple machines. The ramp, pulley, lever and hydraulic press are common experiences in the life of a student and their theoretical analysis therefore makes the abstract concept of work more real. The mechanical advantage of each of these systems is also discussed so that students can evaluate their usefulness as machines.Comment: 9 pages, 4 figure

IMMUNOLOGIC STUDIES OF AUTOIMMUNE DISEASE IN NZB/NZW F1 MICE : I. BINDING OF FLUORESCEIN-LABELED ANTINUCLEOSIDE ANTIBODIES IN LESIONS OF LUPUS-LIKE NEPHRITIS

For the past 3 years NZB and NZW mice have been maintained by sister-brother matings from English breeder stock. NZB/NZW F1 hybrids developed lupus-like nephritis during the 6th to 7th month and few survived beyond the 8th month. Renal tissues of these animals were examined with fluorescein-labeled antinucleoside sera, specific for thymine and cytosine, for the presence of denatured DNA in GCW, and with labeled antibody to mouse IgG for the presence of excess host globulin in the same areas. The following results have been obtained: (a) All 51 hybrids, over 5 months of age, had an excess of mouse globulin in GCW. 40 animals between the ages of 5 and 12 months showed, in the same areas, antigens which bound one or both of the antinucleoside antibodies. (b) Renal tissues of 19 NZB mice, 5–19 months old, and 27 NZW mice, 2–18 months old, were examined. Excess host globulin was seen in GCW of 13 NZB and 20 NZW animals. The tissues of only two old NZB mice, 14 months of age, bound antinucleoside antibody but none of the other animals did. The association of rapidly fatal lupus-like nephritis in NZB/NZW F1 mice with denatured DNA and mouse globulin in GCW supports the hypothesis involving this antigen-antibody complex in the pathogenesis of the disease

New Norms for a New Generation: Cognitive Performance in the Framingham Offspring Cohort

A previous publication presented normative data on neuropsychological tests stratified by age, gender, and education based on the Original Cohort of the Framingham Heart Study. Many contemporary investigations include subject samples with higher levels of education, a factor known to affect cognitive performance. Secular change in education prompted the reexamination of norms in the children of the Original Cohort. The study population consisted of 853 men and 988 women from the Offspring Study, free of clinical neurological disease, who underwent a neuropsychological examination, which included tests given to their parents in 1974 to 1976 as well as additional newer tests to provide a more comprehensive battery. The Offspring population overall was more evenly distributed by gender and better educated. Their performance on cognitive tests was superior to that of the Original Cohort. Multivariable analyses revealed that more years of education explained only a part of the cohort differences. These findings suggest that continued surveillance of each generation is necessary to document the impact that unique social and economic variables have on cognitive function. Here, the authors provide updated normative data