Estimating the uncertainty of areal precipitation using data assimilation

We present a method to estimate spatially and temporally variable uncertainty of areal precipitation data. The aim of the method is to merge measurements from different sources, remote sensing and in situ, into a combined precipitation product and to provide an associated dynamic uncertainty estimate. This estimate should provide an accurate representation of uncertainty both in time and space, an adjustment to additional observations merged into the product through data assimilation, and flow dependency. Such a detailed uncertainty description is important for example to generate precipitation ensembles for probabilistic hydrological modelling or to specify accurate error covariances when using precipitation observations for data assimilation into numerical weather prediction models. The presented method uses the Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter and an ensemble nowcasting model. The model provides information about the precipitation displacement over time and is continuously updated by assimilation of observations. In this way, the precipitation product and its uncertainty estimate provided by the nowcasting ensemble evolve consistently in time and become flow-dependent. The method is evaluated in a proof of concept study focusing on weather radar data of four precipitation events. The study demonstrates that the dynamic areal uncertainty estimate outperforms a constant benchmark uncertainty value in all cases for one of the evaluated scores, and in half the number of cases for the other score. Thus, the flow dependency introduced by the coupling of data assimilation and nowcasting enables a more accurate spatial and temporal distribution of uncertainty. The mixed results achieved in the second score point out the importance of a good probabilistic nowcasting scheme for the performance of the method

Horizontal geometry of trade wind cumuli - aircraft observations from a shortwave infrared imager versus a radar profiler

This study elaborates on how aircraft-based horizontal geometries of trade wind cumulus clouds differ whether a one-dimensional (1D) profiler or a two-dimensional (2D) imager is used. While nadir profiling devices are limited to a 1D realization of the cloud transect size, with limited representativeness of horizontal cloud extension, 2D imagers enhance our perspectives by mapping the horizontal cloud field. Both require high resolutions to detect the lower end of the cloud size spectrum. In this regard, the payload aboard the HALO (High Altitude and LOng Range Research Aircraft) achieves a comparison and also a synergy of both measurement systems. Using the NARVAL II (Next-Generation Aircraft Remote-Sensing for Validation Studies) campaign, we combine HALO observations from a 35.2 GHz cloud and precipitation radar (1D) and from the hyperspectral 2D imager specMACS (Munich Aerosol Cloud Scanner), with a 30 times higher along-track resolution, and compare their cloud masks. We examine cloud size distributions in terms of sensitivity to sample size, resolution and the considered field of view (2D or 1D). This specifies impacts on horizontal cloud sizes derived from the across-track perspective of the high-resolution imager in comparison to the radar curtain. We assess whether and how the trade wind field amplifies uncertainties in cloud geometry observations along 1D transects through directional cloud elongation. Our findings reveal that each additional dimension, no matter of the device, causes a significant increase in observed clouds. The across-track field yields the highest increase in the cloud sample. The radar encounters difficulties in characterizing the trade wind cumuli size distribution. More than 60 % of clouds are subgrid scale for the radar. The radar has issues in the representation of clouds shorter than 200 m, as they are either unresolved or are incorrectly displayed as single grid points. Very shallow clouds can also remain unresolved due to too low radar sensitivity. Both facts deteriorate the cloud size distribution significantly at this scale. Double power law characteristics in the imager-based cloud size distribution do not occur in radar observations. Along-track measurements do not necessarily cover the predominant cloud extent and inferred geometries' lack of representativeness. Trade wind cumuli show horizontal patterns similar to ellipses, with a mean aspect ratio of 3 : 2 and having tendencies of stronger elongation with increasing cloud size. Instead of circular cloud shape estimations based on the 1D transect, elliptic fits maintain the cloud area size distribution. Increasing wind speed tends to stretch clouds more and tilts them into the wind field, which makes transect measurements more representative along this axis

Convective cold pools in long-term boundary layer mast observations

Cold pools are mesoscale features that are key for understanding the organization of convection, but are insufficiently captured in conventional observations. This study conducts a statistical characterization of cold-pool passages observed at a 280-m-high boundary layer mast in Hamburg (Germany) and discusses factors controlling their signal strength. During 14 summer seasons 489 cold-pool events are identified from rapid temperature drops below 22K associated with rainfall. The cold-pool activity exhibits distinct annual and diurnal cycles peaking in July and midafternoon, respectively. The median temperature perturbation is -3.3K at 2-m height and weakens above. Also the increase in hydrostatic air pressure and specific humidity is largest near the surface. Extrapolation of the vertically weakening pressure signal suggests a characteristic cold-pool depth of about 750 m. Disturbances in the horizontal and vertical wind speed components document a lifting-induced circulation of air masses prior to the approaching cold-pool front. According to a correlation analysis, the near-surface temperature perturbation is more strongly controlled by the pre-event saturation deficit (r = -0.71) than by the event-accumulated rainfall amount (r = -0.35). Simulating the observed temperature drops as idealized wet-bulb processes suggests that evaporative cooling alone explains 64 of the variability in cold-pool strength. This number increases to 92 for cases that are not affected by advection of midtropospheric low-Qe air masses under convective downdrafts. © 2021 American Meteorological Society

The Hamburg Tornado (7 June 2016) from the perspective of low-cost high-resolution radar data and weather forecast model

A tornado hit the northeastern suburbs of Hamburg, Germany, on 7 June 2016. It had an estimated strength of upper end F1 on the Fujita scale and was short-lived with an approximate duration of only 13 min and a path length of just about 1.3 km. We demonstrate that such a small-scale, extreme event can be observed and forecasted accurately by a low-cost radar and by an atmospheric model with low computational costs, respectively. Observations from a low-cost single polarized X-band radar covering the urban area of Hamburg with 60 m spatial and 30 s temporal resolution are analyzed with respect to their ability to capture the development as well as the track of the tornado. In contrast to the national C-band radar network, the X-band radar is capable of capturing the hook echo of the tornado as well as the circular pattern in rain rates, because of its higher resolution in space and time. High-resolution forecasts of the tornado event are conducted with the computational efficient Conformal Cubic Atmosphere Model (CCAM) in order to test the capability of predicting the tornado with a lead time of a few hours. A three step downscaling method is used to obtain a spatial resolution of 1 km with initial conditions taken from the NCEP analysis. Calculated severe weather indices clearly indicate a potential for a tornado. CCAM cannot explicitly resolve small scale tornadic features but the model simulates a strong convective cell only a few kilometers apart from the tornadic thunderstorm observed by the radar

Two adaptive radiative transfer schemes for numerical weather prediction models

Radiative transfer calculations in atmospheric models are computationally expensive, even if based on simplifications such as the δ-two-stream approximation. In most weather prediction models these parameterisation schemes are therefore called infrequently, accepting additional model error due to the persistence assumption between calls. This paper presents two so-called adaptive parameterisation schemes for radiative transfer in a limited area model: A perturbation scheme that exploits temporal correlations and a local-search scheme that mainly takes advantage of spatial correlations. Utilising these correlations and with similar computational resources, the schemes are able to predict the surface net radiative fluxes more accurately than a scheme based on the persistence assumption. An important property of these adaptive schemes is that their accuracy does not decrease much in case of strong reductions in the number of calls to the δ-two-stream scheme. It is hypothesised that the core idea can also be employed in parameterisation schemes for other processes and in other dynamical models

Observability of moisture transport divergence in Arctic atmospheric rivers by dropsondes

This study emulates dropsondes to elucidate the extent to which sporadic airborne sondes adequately represent divergence of moisture transport in Arctic atmospheric rivers (ARs). The convergence of vertically integrated moisture transport (IVT) plays a crucial role as it favours precipitation that significantly affects Arctic sea ice properties. Long-range research aircraft can transect ARs and drop sondes to determine their IVT divergence. In order to assess the representativeness of future sonde-based IVT divergence in Arctic ARs, we disentangle the sonde-based deviations from an ideal instantaneous IVT divergence, which result from undersampling by a limited number of sondes and from the flight duration. Our synthetic study uses C3S Arctic Regional Reanalysis (CARRA) reanalyses to set up an idealised scenario for airborne AR observations. For nine Arctic spring ARs, we mimic flights transecting each AR in CARRA and emulate sonde-based IVT representation by picking single vertical profiles. The emulation quantifies IVT divergence observability by two approaches. First, sonde-based IVT and its divergence are compared to the continuous IVT interpolated onto the flight cross-section. The comparison specifies uncertainties of discrete sonde-based IVT variability and divergence. Second, we determine how temporal AR evolution affects IVT divergence values by contrasting time-propagating sonde-based values with the divergence based on instantaneous snapshots. For our Arctic AR cross-sections, we find that coherent wind and moisture variabilities contribute less than 10 % to the total transport. Both quantities are uncorrelated to a great extent. Moisture turns out to be the more variable quantity. We show that sounding spacing greater than 100 km results in errors greater than 10 % of the total IVT along AR cross-sections. For IVT divergence, the Arctic ARs exhibit similar differences in moisture advection and mass convergence across the embedded front as mid-latitude ARs, but we identify moisture advection as being dominant. Overall, we confirm the observability of IVT divergence with an uncertainty of around 25 %–50 % using a sequence of at least seven sondes per cross-section. Rather than sonde undersampling, it is the temporal AR evolution over the flight duration that leads to high deviations in divergence components. In order to realise the estimation of IVT divergence from dropsondes, flight planning should consider not only the sonde positioning, but also the minimisation of the flight duration. Our benchmarks quantify sonde-based uncertainties as essential preparatory work for the upcoming airborne closure of the moisture budget in Arctic ARs.</p

Reanalysis of multi-year high-resolution X-band weather radar observations in Hamburg

This paper presents an open-access data set of reanalysed radar reflectivities and rainfall rates at sub-kilometre spatial and minute temporal scales. Variability at these scales is a blind spot for both operational rain gauge networks and operational radar networks. In the urban area of Hamburg, precipitation measurements of a single-polarized X-band weather radar operating at high temporal (30 s), range (60 m), and azimuthal sampling (1°) resolutions are made available for a period of more than 8 years. We describe in detail the reanalysis of the raw radar data, outline the radar performance for the years 2013 to 2021, and discuss open issues and limitations of the data set. Several sources of radar-based errors were adjusted gradually, affecting the radar reflectivity and rainfall measurements, e.g. noise, alignment, non-meteorological echoes, radar calibration, and attenuation. The deployment of additional vertically pointing micro rain radars yields drop size distributions at the radar beam height, which effectively reduces errors concerning the radar calibration and attenuation correction and monitors the radar data quality. A statistical evaluation revealed that X-band radar reflectivities and rainfall rates are in very good agreement with the micro rain radar measurements. Moreover, the analyses of rainfall patterns shown for an event and accumulated rainfall of several months prove the quality of the data set. The provided radar reflectivities facilitate studies on attenuation correction and the derivation of further weather radar products, like an improved rainfall rate. The rainfall rates themselves can be used for studies on the spatial and temporal scales of precipitation and hydrological research, e.g. input data for high-resolution modelling, in an urban area. The radar reflectivities and rainfall rates are available at https://doi.org/10.26050/WDCC/LAWR_UHH_HHG_v2 (Burgemeister et al., 2024).</p