Approximating multivariate posterior distribution functions from Monte Carlo samples for sequential Bayesian inference

An important feature of Bayesian statistics is the opportunity to do sequential inference: the posterior distribution obtained after seeing a dataset can be used as prior for a second inference. However, when Monte Carlo sampling methods are used for inference, we only have a set of samples from the posterior distribution. To do sequential inference, we then either have to evaluate the second posterior at only these locations and reweight the samples accordingly, or we can estimate a functional description of the posterior probability distribution from the samples and use that as prior for the second inference. Here, we investigated to what extent we can obtain an accurate joint posterior from two datasets if the inference is done sequentially rather than jointly, under the condition that each inference step is done using Monte Carlo sampling. To test this, we evaluated the accuracy of kernel density estimates, Gaussian mixtures, vine copulas and Gaussian processes in approximating posterior distributions, and then tested whether these approximations can be used in sequential inference. In low dimensionality, Gaussian processes are more accurate, whereas in higher dimensionality Gaussian mixtures or vine copulas perform better. In our test cases, posterior approximations are preferable over direct sample reweighting, although joint inference is still preferable over sequential inference. Since the performance is case-specific, we provide an R package mvdens with a unified interface for the density approximation methods

A Lindley-type equation arising from a carousel problem

In this paper we consider a system with two carousels operated by one picker. The items to be picked are randomly located on the carousels and the pick times follow a phase-type distribution. The picker alternates between the two carousels, picking one item at a time. Important performance characteristics are the waiting time of the picker and the throughput of the two carousels. The waiting time of the picker satisfies an equation very similar to Lindley's equation for the waiting time in the PH/U/1 queue. Although the latter equation has no simple solution, we show that the one for the waiting time of the picker can be solved explicitly. Furthermore, it is well known that the mean waiting time in the PH/U/1 queue depends on to the complete interarrival time distribution, but numerical results show that, for the carousel system, the mean waiting time and throughput are rather insensitive to the pick-time distribution.Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure, 19 reference

How robust is a thermal photon interpretation of the ALICE low-p_T data?

We present a rigorous theoretical analysis of the ALICE measurement of low-p_T direct-photon production in central lead-lead collisions at the LHC with a centre-of-mass energy of \sqrt{s_{NN}}=2.76 TeV. Using NLO QCD, we compute the relative contributions to prompt-photon production from different initial and final states and the theoretical uncertainties coming from independent variations of the renormalisation and factorisation scales, the nuclear parton densities and the fragmentation functions. Based on different fits to the unsubtracted and prompt-photon subtracted ALICE data, we consistently find T = 304 \pm 58 MeV and 309 \pm 64 MeV for the effective temperature of the quark-gluon plasma (or hot medium) at p_T \in [0.8;2.2] GeV and p_T \in [1.5;3.5] GeV as well as a power-law (p_T^{-4}) behavior for p_T > 4 GeV as predicted by QCD hard scattering.Comment: 18 pages, 7 figures, 1 tabl

Venous thromboembolism in pregnancy

Pregnancy-related venous thromboembolic events are important preventable causes of morbidity and mortality in South Africa. All pregnant patients should be evaluated for thrombotic risk at different stages of their pregnancy and appropriate preventive steps taken. Maternal and fetal wellbeing must be kept in mind, as well as physiological changes leading to altered drug pharmacokinetics. Managing the patient with thrombotic risk in pregnancy, diagnosing venous thromboembolism (VTE) during pregnancy and treatment of venous thromboembolic events should be managed by a team. Excellent recent reviews on this subject are available, including risk factor stratification in anticoagulant therapy; managing the patient at time of labour; diagnosing VTE; and managing neuraxial anaesthesia in the pregnant patient on anticoagulant therapy

Active multilayer mirrors for reflectance tuning at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths

We propose an active multilayer mirror structure for EUV wavelengths which can be adjusted to compensate for reflectance changes. The multilayer structure tunes the reflectance via an integrated piezoelectric layer that can change its dimension due to an externally applied voltage. Here, we present design and optimization of the mirror structure for maximum reflectance tuning. In addition, we present preliminary results showing that the deposition of piezoelectric thin films with the requisite layer smoothness and crystal structure are possible. Finally, polarization switching of the smoothest piezoelectric film is presented

Group classification of the Sachs equations for a radiating axisymmetric, non-rotating, vacuum space-time

We carry out a Lie group analysis of the Sachs equations for a time-dependent axisymmetric non-rotating space-time in which the Ricci tensor vanishes. These equations, which are the first two members of the set of Newman-Penrose equations, define the characteristic initial-value problem for the space-time. We find a particular form for the initial data such that these equations admit a Lie symmetry, and so defines a geometrically special class of such spacetimes. These should additionally be of particular physical interest because of this special geometric feature.Comment: 18 Pages. Submitted to Classical and Quantum Gravit

Integrating Career Development Into The Accounting Curriculum

This paper describes a series of integrated career development activities offered in several required courses which are designed to help accounting majors gain a competitive edge in the job market.  Supported by a partnership between the School of Business and the Academic and Career Planning Office, the Career Tool Kit program consists of classroom presentations followed by hands-on applied experiences in which students become proficient in preparing resumes, writing cover letters, interviewing, and using all available resources to find a position that best matches their skills, interests, and values.  Unique features of the Career Tool Kit are the placement of program elements within required courses (to ensure that all students participate) and the scheduling of these elements over a three-year period (to allow time for students to prepare an intentional job search strategy)

Untersuchungen des Elektrolytstoffwechsels der Erythrocyten bei chronischer Niereninsuffizienz

Peer Reviewe

Streptolysin O and NAD-Glycohydrolase Prevent Phagolysosome Acidification and Promote Group A Streptococcus Survival in Macrophages

ABSTRACT Group A Streptococcus (GAS, Streptococcus pyogenes) is an ongoing threat to human health as the agent of streptococcal pharyngitis, skin and soft tissue infections, and life-threatening conditions such as necrotizing fasciitis and streptococcal toxic shock syndrome. In animal models of infection, macrophages have been shown to contribute to host defense against GAS infection. However, as GAS can resist killing by macrophages in vitro and induce macrophage cell death, it has been suggested that GAS intracellular survival in macrophages may enable persistent infection. Using isogenic mutants, we now show that the GAS pore-forming toxin streptolysin O (SLO) and its cotoxin NAD-glycohydrolase (NADase) mediate GAS intracellular survival and cytotoxicity for macrophages. Unexpectedly, the two toxins did not inhibit fusion of GAS-containing phagosomes with lysosomes but rather prevented phagolysosome acidification. SLO served two essential functions, poration of the phagolysosomal membrane and translocation of NADase into the macrophage cytosol, both of which were necessary for maximal GAS intracellular survival. Whereas NADase delivery to epithelial cells is mediated by SLO secreted from GAS bound to the cell surface, in macrophages, the source of SLO and NADase is GAS contained within phagolysosomes. We found that transfer of NADase from the phagolysosome to the macrophage cytosol occurs not by simple diffusion through SLO pores but rather by a specific translocation mechanism that requires the N-terminal translocation domain of NADase. These results illuminate the mechanisms through which SLO and NADase enable GAS to defeat macrophage-mediated killing and provide new insight into the virulence of a major human pathogen