Cost-effective reductions of PM2.5 concentrations and exposure in Italy

In recent years several European air pollution policies have been based on a cost-effectiveness approach. In the European Union, the European Commission starts using the multi-pollutant, multi-effect GAINS (Greenhouse Gas Air Pollution Interactions and Synergies) model to identify cost-effective National Emission Ceilings and specific emission control measures for each Member State to reach these targets. In this paper, we apply the GAINS methodology to the case of Italy with 20 subnational regions. We present regional results for different approaches to environmental target setting for PM2.5 pollution in the year 2030. We have obtained these results using optimization techniques consistent with those of GAINS-Europe, but at a higher resolution. Our results show that an overall health-impact oriented approach is more cost-effective than setting a nation-wide limit value on ambient air quality, such as the one set for the year 2030 by the European Directive on ambient air quality and cleaner air for Europe. The health-impact oriented approach implies additional emission control costs of 153 million €/yr on top of the baseline costs, compared to 322 million €/yr for attaining the nation-wide air quality limit. We provide insights into the distribution of costs and benefits for regions within Italy and identify the main beneficiaries of a health-impact approach over a limit-value approach

Assessing the macroeconomic impacts of individual behavioral changes on carbon emissions

© 2019, The Author(s). In the last decade, instigated by the Paris agreement and United Nations Climate Change Conferences (COP22 and COP23), the efforts to limit temperature increase to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels are expanding. The required reductions in greenhouse gas emissions imply a massive decarbonization worldwide with much involvement of regions, cities, businesses, and individuals in addition to the commitments at the national levels. Improving end-use efficiency is emphasized in previous IPCC reports (IPCC 2014). Serving as the primary ‘agents of change’ in the transformative process towards green economies, households have a key role in global emission reduction. Individual actions, especially when amplified through social dynamics, shape green energy demand and affect investments in new energy technologies that collectively can curb regional and national emissions. However, most energy-economics models—usually based on equilibrium and optimization assumptions—have a very limited representation of household heterogeneity and treat households as purely rational economic actors. This paper illustrates how computational social science models can complement traditional models by addressing this limitation. We demonstrate the usefulness of behaviorally rich agent-based computational models by simulating various behavioral and climate scenarios for residential electricity demand and compare them with the business as usual (SSP2) scenario. Our results show that residential energy demand is strongly linked to personal and social norms. Empirical evidence from surveys reveals that social norms have an essential role in shaping personal norms. When assessing the cumulative impacts of these behavioral processes, we quantify individual and combined effects of social dynamics and of carbon pricing on individual energy efficiency and on the aggregated regional energy demand and emissions. The intensity of social interactions and learning plays an equally important role for the uptake of green technologies as economic considerations, and therefore in addition to carbon-price policies (top-down approach), implementing policies on education, social and cultural practices can significantly reduce residential carbon emissions

A dependent nominal type theory

Nominal abstract syntax is an approach to representing names and binding pioneered by Gabbay and Pitts. So far nominal techniques have mostly been studied using classical logic or model theory, not type theory. Nominal extensions to simple, dependent and ML-like polymorphic languages have been studied, but decidability and normalization results have only been established for simple nominal type theories. We present a LF-style dependent type theory extended with name-abstraction types, prove soundness and decidability of beta-eta-equivalence checking, discuss adequacy and canonical forms via an example, and discuss extensions such as dependently-typed recursion and induction principles

A modelling assessment of acidification and recovery of European surface waters

The increase in emission of sulphur oxides and nitrogen (both oxidised and reduced forms) since the mid-1800s caused a severe decline in pH and ANC in acid-sensitive surface waters across Europe. Since c.1980, these emissions have declined and trends towards recovery from acidification have been widely observed in time-series of water chemistry data. In this paper, the MAGIC model was applied to 10 regions (the SMART model to one) in Europe to address the question of future recovery under the most recently agreed emission protocols (the 1999 Gothenburg Protocol). The models were calibrated using best available data and driven using S and N deposition sequences for Europe derived from EMEP data. The wide extent and the severity of water acidification in 1980 in many regions were illustrated by model simulations which showed significant deterioration in ANC away from the pre-acidification conditions. The simulations also captured the recovery to 2000 in response to the existing emission reductions. Predictions to 2016 indicated further significant recovery towards pre-acidification chemistry in all regions except Central England (S Pennines), S Alps, S Norway and S Sweden. In these areas it is clear that further emission reductions will be required and that the recovery of surface waters will take several decades as soils slowly replenish their depleted base cation pools. Chemical recovery may not, however, ensure biological recovery and further reductions may also be required to enable these waters to achieve the "good ecological status" as required by the EU Water Framework Directive

The GAINS PMEH-Methodology -Version 2.0

This document describes the methodology developed for the GAINS PMEH project. This methodology provides a framework for translating detailed data on emission control technologies and measures, atmospheric transport, costs, socio-economic development and health indicators from the GAINS databases into such a format and level of aggregation that they can be displayed and turned into an interactive decision support tool at various spatial scales, in particular the megacity scale. As an example we discuss the prototype for Hanoi and its environs

Development of a Comprehensive Regional Emissions Inventory in Support of Air Quality Modeling and Aircraft Field Campaign over East Asia

Concentration of air pollutants (SLCPs) such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols are mainly affected by meteorological variables and emissions. East Asia is one of the important source regions of both anthropogenic and natural air pollutants and GHGs. Recently, Therefore, significant air pollution changes has been detected, especially over China, due to its stringent emissions control. More up to date emissions and comprehensive air quality modeling are the important components to quantitatively evaluate them. Two aircraft field campaigns, MAPS-Seoul and KORUS-AQ, had been organized to study the air quality over Korea and East Asia relating to chemical evolution, emission inventories, trans-boundary contribution, and satellite application. In this study, we had developed an updated version of our Asian emissions inventory, named NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) in support of the filed campaigns. For anthropogenic emissions, it has 54 fuel classes, 201 sub-sectors and 13 pollutants, including CO2, CH4, N2O, SO2, NOx, CO, NMVOC, NH3, OC, BC, PM10, PM2.5, and mercury. Since the CREATE emissions framework was developed using the integrated climate and air quality assessment modeling framework (i.e. GAINS) and is fully connected with the comprehensive emission processing/modeling systems (i.e. SMOKE, KU-EPS, and MEGAN), it can be effectively used in support of various climate and air quality modeling analysis and field experiments. For the field campaigns, we are providing modeling emissions inventory to participating air quality models, such as CMAQ, WRF-Chen, CAMx, GEOS-Chem, MOZART, for forecasting and post-analysis modes. The initial emissions inventory evaluation results and improvement of our understanding on emissions using the feedbacks from the air quality modeling and files measurement will be presented on site

Evaluation of Air Pollutant Emission Inventories in East Asia

Concentration of air pollutants such as tropospheric ozone and aerosols are mainly affected by meteorological variables and emissions. East Asia has large amount of anthropogenic and natural air pollutant emissions and has been putting lots of efforts to improve air quality. In order to seek effective ways to mitigate future air pollution, it is essential to understand the current emissions and their impacts on air quality. Emission inventory is one of the key datasets required to understand air quality and find ways to improve it. Amounts and spatial-temporal distributions of emissions are, however, not easy to estimate due to their complicate nature, therefore introduce significant uncertainties. In this study, we had developed an updated version of our Asian emissions inventory, named NIER/KU-CREATE (Comprehensive Regional Emissions inventory for Atmospheric Transport Experiment) in support of climate-air quality study. We first inter-compare multiple bottom-up inventories to understand discrepancies among the dataset(sectoral, spatial). We then inter-compare those bottom-up emissions to the satellite-based top-down emission estimates to understand uncertainties of the databases. The bottom-up emission inventories used for this study are: CREATE, MEIC(Multiresolution Emission Inventory for China), REAS (Regional Emission inventory in ASia), and ECLIPSE(Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). The satellite-derived top-down emission inventory had been acquired from the DECSO (Daily Emission derived Constrained by Satellite Observations) algorithm data from the GlobEmissions website. The analysis showed that some discrepancies, in terms of emission amounts, sectoral shares and spatial distribution patterns, exist among the datasets. We analyzed further to find out which parameters could affect more on those discrepancies. Co-analysis of top-down and bottom-up emissions inventory help us to evaluate emissions amount and spatial distribution. These analysis are helpful for the development of more consistent and reliable inventories with the aim of reducing the uncertainties in air quality study. More results of evaluation of emissions will be presented on site

GAINS-Asia Deliverable D15: Final Report on Policy Analysis with the GAINS-Asia model

This report describes initial policy analyses with the Greenhouse gas – Air pollution Interactions and Synergies (GAINS) model. It summarizes the exogenous projections on energy and agricultural activities up to 2030 and discusses the resulting implications on air quality and greenhouse gas emissions. An illustrative scenario explores the health benefits from a substitution of solid fuels in households by LPG and explores the side-effects on greenhouse gas emissions. The paper summarizes the optimization methodology that has been developed for the GAINS-Asia model and presents a range of alternative strategies to improve air quality and reduce greenhouse gas emissions. It shows that with a targeted approach, emission control costs can be reduced by up to 80 percent compared to an across-the-board application of technologies. Furthermore, the paper presents systematic analyses of the costs (i.e., cost curves) for reducing health impacts from fine particulate matter as well as for reducing greenhouse gas emissions

Decarbonization pathways and energy investment needs for developing Asia in line with 'well below' 2 °C

Exploring potential future pathways for developing Asia’s energy consumption, CO2 emissions and infrastructure investment needs is essential to understanding how the countries of this rapidly growing region may contribute to the global climate targets set out in the 2015 Paris Agreement. To this end, this study employs the state-of-the-art global integrated assessment model MESSAGEix-GLOBIOM to investigate mid-century decarbonization strategies for developing Asia to 2050. Our results indicate that a radical change in the energy portfolio is required to reach the target of ‘well below’ 2°C. Specifically, our scenarios point to a rapid reduction of fossil fuel utilization, enhancement of low-carbon energy supply, and boosting of energy efficiency efforts. Such a transformation leads to a deep cut in CO2 emissions by 78% and 93% by 2050 in scenarios consistent with the 2°C and 1.5°C targets, respectively. Electricity generation and final energy consumption become dominated by low-carbon energy by 2050 in these scenarios. In terms of investment needs beyond a baseline scenario, the 2°C and 1.5°C pathways imply that the scale of low-carbon investment may need to double and triple, respectively. These increases would be partially offset by disinvestment in coal, oil and natural gas extraction and conversion infrastructure. Decarbonizing the energy system also impacts the capital needed for making progress on other sustainable development goals (SDGs), such as air pollution, clean water and food security

Progress towards the achievement of the EU's air quality and emissions objectives

After completion of the analyses that informed the negotiations on the revised national emission ceilings directive (NECD), important factors have changed. Improved emission inventories, the recent climate and energy policies of the European Union and new source‐oriented emission control regulations have profound implications on further actions to meet the emission reduction requirements of the NECD. Considering the interplay of this new information, this report presents an updated outlook for emissions and air quality in the European Union, and explores the prospects of achieving the WHO guideline values to protect human health and the Union’s long‐term environmental policy objectives on the protection of ecosystems. It is found that, broadly speaking, by 2030 the recent legislation will bring the WHO guidelines for PM2.5 within reach for most areas, while further efforts, especially for agricultural ammonia emissions and PM emissions from residential combustion of solid fuels will be required at hot spots