Development of a prediction model for future risk of radiographic hip osteoarthritis

Objective: To develop and validate a prognostic model for incident radiologic hip osteoarthritis (HOA) and determine the value of previously identified predictive factors. Design: We first validated previously reported predictive factors for HOA by performing univariate and multivariate analyses for all predictors in three large prospective cohorts (total sample size of 4548 with 653 incident cases). The prognostic model was developed in 2327 individuals followed for 10 years from the Rotterdam Study-I (RS-I) cohort. External validation of the model was tested on discrimination in two other cohorts: RS-II (n = 1435) and the Cohort Hip and Cohort Knee (CHECK) study (n = 786). Results: From the total number of 28 previously reported predictive factors, we were able to replicate 13 factors, while 15 factors were not significantly predictive in a meta-analysis of the three cohorts. The basic model including the demographic, questionnaire, and clinical examination variables (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC) = 0.67) or genetic markers (AUC = 0.55) or urinary C-terminal cross-linked telopeptide of type II collagen (uCTX-II) levels (AUC = 0.67) alone were poor predictors of HOA in all cohorts. Imaging factors showed the highest predictive value for the development of HOA (AUC = 0.74). Addition of imaging variables to the basic model led to substantial improvement in the discriminative ability of the model (AUC = 0.78) compared with uCTX-II (AUC = 0.74) or genetic markers (AUC = 0.68). Applying external validation, similar results were observed in the RS-II and the CHECK cohort. Conclusions: The developed prediction model included demographic, a limited number of questionnaire, and imaging risk factors seems promising for prediction of HOA

Association between anthropometry and lifestyle factors and risk of B cell lymphoma: an exposome wide analysis.

To better understand the role of individual and lifestyle factors in human disease, an exposome-wide association study was performed to investigate within a single study anthropometry measures and lifestyle factors previously associated with B-cell lymphoma (BCL). Within the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and nutrition study, 2,402 incident BCL cases were diagnosed from 475,426 participants that were followed-up on average 14 years. Standard and penalized Cox regression models as well as principal component (PC) analysis were used to evaluate 84 exposures in relation to BCL risk. Standard and penalized Cox regression models showed a positive association between anthropometric measures and BCL and multiple myeloma/plasma cell neoplasm (MM). The penalized Cox models additionally showed the association between several exposures from categories of physical activity, smoking status, medical history, socioeconomic position, and diet and BCL and/or the subtypes. PC analyses confirmed the individual associations but also showed additional observations. The PC5 including anthropometry, was positively associated with BCL, diffuse large B-cell lymphoma (DLBCL), and MM. There was a significant positive association between consumption of sugar and confectionary (PC11) and follicular lymphoma risk, and an inverse association between fish and shellfish and Vitamin D (PC15) and DLBCL risk. The PC1 including features of the Mediterranean diet and diet with lower inflammatory score showed an inverse association with BCL risk, while the PC7, including dairy, was positively associated with BCL and DLBCL risk. Physical activity (PC10) was positively associated with DLBCL risk among women. This study provided informative insights on the etiology of BCL

Serum fatty acid chain length associates with prevalent symptomatic end-stage osteoarthritis, independent of BMI

Higher body mass index (BMI) is associated with osteoarthritis (OA) in both weight-bearing and non-weight-bearing joints, suggesting a link between OA and poor metabolic health beyond mechanical loading. This risk may be influenced by systemic factors accompanying BMI. Fluctuations in concentrations of metabolites may mark or even contribute to development of OA. This study explores the association of metabolites with radiographic knee/hip OA prevalence and progression. A 1H-NMR-metabolomics assay was performed on plasma samples of 1564 cases for prevalent OA and 2,125 controls collected from the Rotterdam Study, CHECK, GARP/NORREF and LUMC-arthroplasty cohorts. OA prevalence and 5 to 10 year progression was assessed by means of Kellgren-Lawrence (KL) score and the OARSI-atlas. End-stage knee/hip OA (TJA) was defined as indication for arthroplasty surgery. Controls did not have OA at baseline or follow-up. Principal component analysis of 227 metabolites demonstrated 23 factors, of which 19 remained interpretable after quality-control. Associations of factor scores with OA definitions were investigated with logistic regression. Fatty acids chain length (FALen), which was included in two factors which associated with TJA, was individually associated with both overall OA as well as TJA. Increased Fatty Acid chain Length is associated with OA

Proteomic markers with prognostic impact on outcome of chronic lymphocytic leukemia patients under chemo-immunotherapy: results from the HOVON 109 study

Despite recent identification of several prognostic markers, there is still a need for new prognostic parameters able to predict clinical outcome in chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL) patients. Here, we aimed to validate the prognostic ability of known (proteomic) markers measured pretreatment and to search for new proteomic markers that might be related to treatment response in CLL. To this end, baseline serum samples of 51 CLL patients treated with chemo-immunotherapy were analyzed for 360 proteomic markers, using Olink technology. Median event-free survival (EFS) was 23 months (range: 1.25–60.9). Patients with high levels of sCD23 (>11.27, p = 0.026), sCD27 (>11.03, p = 0.04), SPINT1 (>1.6, p = 0.001), and LY9 (>8.22, p = 0.0003) had a shorter EFS than those with marker levels below the median. The effect of sCD23 on EFS differed between immunoglobulin heavy chain variable gene-mutated and unmutated patients, with the shortest EFS for unmutated CLL patients with sCD23 levels above the median. Taken together, our results validate the prognostic impact of sCD23 and highlight SPINT1 and LY9 as possible promising markers for treatment response in CLL patients

The association between genetically elevated polyunsaturated fatty acids and risk of cancer

Background The causal relevance of polyunsaturated fatty acids (PUFAs) for risk of site-specific cancers remains uncertain. Methods Using a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework, we assessed the causal relevance of PUFAs for risk of cancer in European and East Asian ancestry individuals. We defined the primary exposure as PUFA desaturase activity, proxied by rs174546 at the FADS locus. Secondary exposures were defined as omega 3 and omega 6 PUFAs that could be proxied by genetic polymorphisms outside the FADS region. Our study used summary genetic data on 10 PUFAs and 67 cancers, corresponding to 562,871 cases and 1,619,465 controls, collected by the Fatty Acids in Cancer Mendelian Randomization Collaboration. We estimated odds ratios (ORs) for cancer per standard deviation increase in genetically proxied PUFA exposures. Findings Genetically elevated PUFA desaturase activity was associated (P < 0.0007) with higher risk (OR [95% confidence interval]) of colorectal cancer (1.09 [1.07–1.11]), esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (1.16 [1.06–1.26]), lung cancer (1.06 [1.03–1.08]) and basal cell carcinoma (1.05 [1.02–1.07]). There was little evidence for associations with reproductive cancers (OR = 1.00 [95% CI: 0.99–1.01]; Pheterogeneity = 0.25), urinary system cancers (1.03 [0.99–1.06], Pheterogeneity = 0.51), nervous system cancers (0.99 [0.95–1.03], Pheterogeneity = 0.92) or blood cancers (1.01 [0.98–1.04], Pheterogeneity = 0.09). Findings for colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma remained compatible with causality in sensitivity analyses for violations of assumptions. Secondary MR analyses highlighted higher omega 6 PUFAs (arachidonic acid, gamma-linolenic acid and dihomo-gamma-linolenic acid) as potential mediators. PUFA biosynthesis is known to interact with aspirin, which increases risk of bleeding and inflammatory bowel disease. In a phenome-wide MR study of non-neoplastic diseases, we found that genetic lowering of PUFA desaturase activity, mimicking a hypothetical intervention to reduce cancer risk, was associated (P < 0.0006) with increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease but not bleeding. Interpretation The PUFA biosynthesis pathway may be an intervention target for prevention of colorectal cancer and esophageal squamous cell carcinoma but with potential for increased risk of inflammatory bowel disease

Lymphoma; pre-diagnostic blood markers and occupational and environmental exposures

The overall aim of this thesis is to study the possible perturbations of the immune system by occupational and environmental risk factors of Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and to study these changes in relation to NHL risk in prospective cohorts. In the first section, we validated the application of single blood cytokine measurements as a biomarker of immune status in prospective epidemiological studies. Potential utility of stored blood samples of a prospective cohort was evaluated by the effect of different blood sample types and freeze-thaw cycles on cytokine levels. This study showed strong correlations between different sample types. Moreover, freeze-thaw cycles did not markedly change cytokine levels. The intra-individual variance in cytokine levels was much smaller than the inter-individual variance which supports the notion that a single cytokine measurement can be used to characterize an individual's immune profile prospectively. Subsequently, we assessed the levels of these cytokines in pre-diagnostic blood samples of participants of a case–control study nested into the Italian European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition cohort (EPIC) and determined their association with the risk of developing NHL. The results suggest a possible association between increased/decreased plasma levels of interleukin (IL)2, inter-cellular adhesion molecule, interferon gamma (IFN-γ), and tumor necrosis factor alpha with NHL risk. In the second section, we studied the possible immunological effects of two possibly lymphomagens: an occupational exposure (i.e. 2,3,7,8- tetrachlorodibenzo-p-dioxin (TCDD)) and an environmental risk factor (i.e. obesity). We assessed a broad range of immunologic parameters directed towards detecting abnormalities in the humoral and cellular arms of the immune system among workers exposed to chlorophenoxy herbicides, chlorophenols and dioxins in particular TCDD. These studies showed that plasma TCDD levels were not associated with markers of humoral immunity with the possible exception of a decrease in complement factor 4 levels. Most lymphocyte subsets, in particular the B cell compartment, showed a decrease in cell counts with increasing levels of TCDD. Moreover, blood levels of most cytokines, chemokines and growth factors had a negative association with TCDD levels with a formal statistical significance for fractalkine, transforming growth factor alpha and fibroblast growth factor 2. These changes were independent from the changes in blood cell counts. Our findings support the notion that dioxin exposure can have an adverse impact on the immune system and likely suppresses the immune system. To identify immunologic hallmarks of obesity, we measured plasma levels of cytokines in pre-diagnostic blood samples of participants of a case-control study nested in the Italian EPIC cohort. IL8, IL10, IFN-γ, and interferon-induced protein 10 (IP10) were related to obesity. However, the set of obesity predictors (IL8, IL10, IFN-γ, IP10) were not associated with future NHL risk. Our studies support that subtle perturbations in the immune system may precede lymphoma development and suggest that B cell activation, chronic inflammation and/or an unbalance in Th1/Th2-responses are likely important phenomena in lymphomagenesis. Although, possible occupational and environmental risk factors of NHL influence the immune system they did not pertubate immune markers shown to be associated with future NHL risk