A Time Series Model for Assessing the Trend and Forecasting the Road Traffic Accident Mortality

Background: Road traffic accident (RTA) is one of the main causes of trauma and known as a growing public health concern worldwide, especially in developing countries. Assessing the trend of fatalities in the past years and forecasting it enables us to make the appropriate planning for prevention and control. Objectives: This study aimed to assess the trend of RTAs and forecast it in the next years by using time series modeling. Materials and Methods: In this historical analytical study, the RTA mortalities in Zanjan Province, Iran, were evaluated during 2007 - 2013. The time series analyses including Box-Jenkins models were used to assess the trend of accident fatalities in previous years and forecast it for the next 4 years. Results: The mean age of the victims was 37.22 years (SD = 20.01). From a total of 2571 deaths, 77.5% (n = 1992) were males and 22.5% (n = 579) were females. The study models showed a descending trend of fatalities in the study years. The SARIMA (1, 1, 3) (0, 1, 0) 12 model was recognized as a best fit model in forecasting the trend of fatalities. Forecasting model also showed a descending trend of traffic accident mortalities in the next 4 years. Conclusions: There was a decreasing trend in the study and the future years. It seems that implementation of some interventions in the recent decade has had a positive effect on the decline of RTA fatalities. Nevertheless, there is still a need to pay more attention in order to prevent the occurrence and the mortalities related to traffic accidents

Magnesium Supplementation and the Effects on Wound Healing and Metabolic Status in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcer: a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

Hypomagnesemia is associated with the development of neuropathy and abnormal platelet activity, both of which are risk factors for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). This study was carried out to evaluate the effects of magnesium administration on wound healing and metabolic status in subjects with DFU. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed among 70 subjects with grade 3 DFU. Subjects were randomly divided into two groups (35 subjects each group) to receive either 250 mg magnesium oxide supplements or placebo daily for 12 weeks. Pre- and post-intervention wound depth and appearance were scored in accordance with the “Wagner-Meggitt’s” wound assessment tool. Fasting blood samples were taken at baseline and after the 12-week intervention to assess related markers. After the 12-week treatment, compared with the placebo, magnesium supplementation resulted in a significant increase in serum magnesium (+0.3 ± 0.3 vs. −0.1 ± 0.2 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and significant reductions in ulcer length (−1.8 ± 2.0 vs. −0.9 ± 1.1 cm, P = 0.01), width (−1.6 ± 2.0 vs. −0.8 ± 0.9 cm, P = 0.02), and depth (−0.8 ± 0.8 vs. −0.3 ± 0.5 cm, P = 0.003). In addition, significant reductions in fasting plasma glucose (−45.4 ± 82.6 vs. −10.6 ± 53.7 mg/dL, P = 0.04), serum insulin values (−2.4 ± 5.6 vs. +1.5 ± 9.6 μIU/mL, P = 0.04), and HbA1c (−0.7 ± 1.5 vs. −0.1 ± 0.4%, P = 0.03) and a significant rise in the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (+0.01 ± 0.01 vs. −0.004 ± 0.02, P = 0.01) were seen following supplementation of magnesium compared with the placebo. Additionally, compared with the placebo, taking magnesium resulted in significant decrease in serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (−19.6 ± 32.5 vs. −4.8 ± 11.2 mg/L, P = 0.01) and significant increase in plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC) concentrations (+6.4 ± 65.2 vs. −129.9 ± 208.3 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Overall, magnesium supplementation for 12 weeks among subjects with DFU had beneficial effects on parameters of ulcer size, glucose metabolism, serum hs-CRP, and plasma TAC levels

A New Optimization Strategy to Improve Design of Hydrogen Network Based Formulation of Hydrogen Consumers

This paper describes a shortcut model for formulating hydrogen consumers in hydrogen network based on inlet/outlet flow rate and inlet/outlet hydrogen purity. The formulation procedure is obtained using nonlinear regression of industrial data and represents the relationship between the flow rate and purity of outlet and inlet streams. The proposed model can estimate outlet flow rate and purity of hydrogen by changing inlet flow rate and purity of hydrogen. The shortcut model is used to achieve optimal operation of consumers and it optimizes hydrogen network design. This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License

Magnesium-based nanocomposites: A review from mechanical, creep and fatigue properties

The addition of nanoscale additions to magnesium (Mg) based alloys can boost mechanical characteristics without noticeably decreasing ductility. Since Mg is the lightest structural material, the Mg-based nanocomposites (NCs) with improved mechanical properties are appealing materials for lightweight structural applications. In contrast to conventional Mg-based composites, the incorporation of nano-sized reinforcing particles noticeably boosts the strength of Mg-based nanocomposites without significantly reducing the formability. The present article reviews Mg-based metal matrix nanocomposites (MMNCs) with metallic and ceramic additions, fabricated via both solid-based (sintering and powder metallurgy) and liquid-based (disintegrated melt deposition) technologies. It also reviews strengthening models and mechanisms that have been proposed to explain the improved mechanical characteristics of Mg-based alloys and nanocomposites. Further, synergistic strengthening mechanisms in Mg matrix nanocomposites and the dominant equations for quantitatively predicting mechanical properties are provided. Furthermore, this study offers an overview of the creep and fatigue behavior of Mg-based alloys and nanocomposites using both traditional (uniaxial) and depth-sensing indentation techniques. The potential applications of magnesium-based alloys and nanocomposites are also surveyed

Magnesium Supplementation and the Effects on Wound Healing and Metabolic Status in Patients with Diabetic Foot Ulcer: a Randomized, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial

Hypomagnesemia is associated with the development of neuropathy and abnormal platelet activity, both of which are risk factors for diabetic foot ulcer (DFU). This study was carried out to evaluate the effects of magnesium administration on wound healing and metabolic status in subjects with DFU. This randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial was performed among 70 subjects with grade 3 DFU. Subjects were randomly divided into two groups (35 subjects each group) to receive either 250 mg magnesium oxide supplements or placebo daily for 12 weeks. Pre- and post-intervention wound depth and appearance were scored in accordance with the �Wagner-Meggitt�s� wound assessment tool. Fasting blood samples were taken at baseline and after the 12-week intervention to assess related markers. After the 12-week treatment, compared with the placebo, magnesium supplementation resulted in a significant increase in serum magnesium (+0.3 ± 0.3 vs. �0.1 ± 0.2 mg/dL, P < 0.001) and significant reductions in ulcer length (�1.8 ± 2.0 vs. �0.9 ± 1.1 cm, P = 0.01), width (�1.6 ± 2.0 vs. �0.8 ± 0.9 cm, P = 0.02), and depth (�0.8 ± 0.8 vs. �0.3 ± 0.5 cm, P = 0.003). In addition, significant reductions in fasting plasma glucose (�45.4 ± 82.6 vs. �10.6 ± 53.7 mg/dL, P = 0.04), serum insulin values (�2.4 ± 5.6 vs. +1.5 ± 9.6 μIU/mL, P = 0.04), and HbA1c (�0.7 ± 1.5 vs. �0.1 ± 0.4, P = 0.03) and a significant rise in the quantitative insulin sensitivity check index (+0.01 ± 0.01 vs. �0.004 ± 0.02, P = 0.01) were seen following supplementation of magnesium compared with the placebo. Additionally, compared with the placebo, taking magnesium resulted in significant decrease in serum high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP) (�19.6 ± 32.5 vs. �4.8 ± 11.2 mg/L, P = 0.01) and significant increase in plasma total antioxidant capacity (TAC) concentrations (+6.4 ± 65.2 vs. �129.9 ± 208.3 mmol/L, P < 0.001). Overall, magnesium supplementation for 12 weeks among subjects with DFU had beneficial effects on parameters of ulcer size, glucose metabolism, serum hs-CRP, and plasma TAC levels. Clinical trial registration number: http://www.irct.ir: IRCT201612225623N96. © 2017, Springer Science+Business Media New York

Emerging technologies for the energy systems of the future

The way the world gets its energy is undergoing a rapid transition, driven by both the increased urgency of decarbonizing energy systems and the plummeting costs of renewable energy technologies. The road to the future will not be easy, and indeed, new technologies, markets, architectures, infrastructures, actors, and business models should be developed, and major changes will be required in the regulation of the energy systems to further support new business models and new consumption patterns. Such a transition requires rethinking every single aspect of energy systems, starting from the way energy is produced and harvested to the way that we dispatch and use it. In this area, it is also imperative to understand how to control and manage existing and emerging technologies to enhance the energy economy and efficiency by active participation in different services required by energy networks

Mammographic density and breast cancer risk in White and African American Women

Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer, but limited data are available in African American (AA) women. We examined the association between mammographic density and breast cancer risk in AA and white women. Cases (n = 491) and controls (n = 528) were from the Carolina Breast Cancer Study (CBCS) who also had mammograms recorded in the Carolina Mammography Registry (CMR). Mammographic density was reported to CMR using Breast Imaging Reporting and Data System (BI-RADS) categories. Increasing mammographic density was associated with increased breast cancer risk among all women. After adjusting for potential confounders, a monotonically increasing risk of breast cancer was observed between the highest versus the lowest BI-RADS density categories [OR = 2.45, (95 % confidence interval: 0.99, 6.09)]. The association was stronger in whites, with ~40 % higher risk among those with extremely dense breasts compared to those with scattered fibroglandular densities [1.39, (0.75, 2.55)]. In AA women, the same comparison suggested lower risk [0.75, (0.30, 1.91)]. Because age, obesity, and exogenous hormones have strong associations with breast cancer risk, mammographic density, and race in the CBCS, effect measure modification by these factors was considered. Consistent with previous literature, density-associated risk was greatest among those with BMI > 30 and current hormone users (P value = 0.02 and 0.01, respectively). In the CBCS, mammographic density is associated with increased breast cancer risk, with some suggestion of effect measure modification by race, although results were not statistically significant. However, exposures such as BMI and hormone therapy may be important modifiers of this association and merit further investigation

A review of African American-white differences in risk factors for cancer: prostate cancer

African American men have higher prostate cancer incidence rates than White men, for reasons not completely understood. This review summarizes the existing literature of race-specific associations between risk factors and prostate cancer in order to examine whether associations differ