Foreign Debt and Fear of Floating: A Theoretical Exploration

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexed domestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions only as a nominal anchor, more foreign debt makes pegging less attractive, because it increases the value of a fexible exchange rate as a shock absorber. This result can be reversed if we incorporate the stylized fact that pegs have lower real exchange rate volatility, and if external shocks are sufficiently large relative to domestic shocks.inflation, output, public debt and exchange rate regimes.

Foreign Debt and Fear of Floating: A Theoretical Exploration

This paper explores the relationship between the denomination of public debt and the choice of exchange rate regime. Unlike indexed domestic debt, foreign debt is subject to valuation effects from real exchange rate shocks. In a standard set-up, where a peg functions only as a nominal anchor, more foreign debt makes pegging less attractive, because it increases the value of a flexible exchange rate as a shock absorber. This result can be reversed if we incorporate the stylized fact that pegs have lower real exchange rate volatility, and if external shocks are sufficiently large relative to domestic shocks.inflation, output, public debt and exchange rate regimes

Political instability, public investment and macroeconomic performance

This paper attempts to provide a framework to explain both the lower share of current spending in large fiscal adjustments and the potential expansionary effects of fiscal contractions. We distinguish between current spending and productivity enhancing public investments and analyze the potential determinants of the policy maker's choice for the composition of overall public spending. Using this framework, we also link the overall macroeconomic performance to the public spending decisions. Our results suggest that raising current spending at the expense of public investment is associated with less favourable performance in terms of not only inflation and output but also, interestingly, future ‘current'' spending.composition of public spending

Monetary Union, Entry Conditions and Economic Reform.

This paper models the behaviour of a potential entrant into a monetary union where there is an inflation entry condition. In addition to making a monetary policy decision during a qualifying period, the potential entrant must make a decision about structural reform. The paper shows that the entry condition can have two undesirable effects. First, it can lead to multiple equilibria because inflationary expectations acquire a self-fulfilling property. Second, the entry condition can lead to a reduction in the amount of reform. This is because the entry condition reduces inflationary expectations and thus reduces the incentive to reform.

The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behaviour to macroeconomic uncertainty

This paper investigates whether variations in macroeconomic uncertainty distort banks' allocation of loanable funds by affecting the predictability of banks' returns from lending. Low levels of macroeconomic uncertainty will allow bankers to base their lending decisions on more accurate evaluations of different lending opportunities, leading to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks. Contrarily, increased macroeconomic uncertainty will hinder bankers ability to identify and channel funds towards the best opportunities, including more similar lending behaviour across banks. Our empirical analysis provides support for the hypothesis that macroeconomic uncertainty adversely affects the efficient allocation of loanable banks.

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Bank Lending Behavior

bank lending, macroeconomic uncertainty, panel data, ARCH

The Banking Sector, Government Bonds and Financial Intermediation: The Case of Emerging Market Countries

This paper develops an analytical framework to explore how financial sector characteristics shape domestic debt dynamics in emerging market economies. Our analysis suggests that the more competitive the banking sector and the more liquid and deeper the deposit market, the better would be the conditions in the public securities market. Our results also reveal that the lower the financial depth, the greater the scale of private sector credits that are crowded-out by public borrowing. To the extent that credit availability is associated with improved productivity and better output performance, the lack of financial depth in emerging market countries implies that extensive domestic borrowing in these countries may have consequences far beyond the concern with fiscal sustainability. As such, our results higlight the importance of developing domestic debt markets for financial and macroeconomic stability.Financial sector; public debt; cost of borrowing.

The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort banks’ allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road- map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that lower uncertainty about the return from lending should lead to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks as managers take advantage of more precise knowledge of different lending opportunities. When bank-specific differences in lending opportunities are harder to predict, we should observe less cross-sectional variation in loan-to-asset ratios. Using a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, we receive support for our hypothesis.Bank lending, financial intermediation, credit, macroeconomic, uncertainty, panel data, ARCH.

Essays on knowledge management strategies in new product development

Management of knowledge involved in the new product development (NPD) projects is critical to the success of firms competing in environments that require rapid innovation. Unfortunately, many firms lack an understanding of how to develop knowledge management (KM) strategies that drive successful outcomes. In this thesis I develop a rich and multifaceted understanding of how KM strategies drive successful NPD outcomes. I examine KM strategies for NPD at two different decision making levels. First, I consider the how the manager of a single NPD project should pursue knowledge acquisition for its product and process design teams and knowledge transfer between the teams over time throughout the development project. The ability to develop and integrate knowledge drives the net revenue earned at the product release time. I show that two different dynamic KM strategies arise: a delay strategy and a front-loading strategy. I characterize drivers of each strategy and the drivers of the market entry time strategy. In contrast to the deterministic approach above, I introduce a stochastic model. The manager of a single NPD project maximizes expected net revenue which reflects the effectiveness of product and process development. I consider the effect of rework that occurs as a result of the KM activities. Although manager's strategies for knowledge creation satisfy either the delay or front-loading strategy the drivers of each strategy in this model are substantially different from those in the first model reflecting the stochastic nature of the project and the effect of rework. In a third model, I consider the strategic level question of how a firm engages in relationships with its competitor regarding the sharing or transfer of knowledge resources for NPD. I consider two cooperative mechanisms: knowledge transfer when both firms ultimately enter the market separately as competitors versus knowledge sharing when both firms enter the market together following the joint development of a new product. In this thesis, I develop the KM strategies followed by the firms for each cooperation mechanism. In addition, I analyze the impact of firm and market characteristics on firms decision to whether to cooperate or not, and other KM decisions.Ph.D.Committee Chair: Cheryl Gaimon; Committee Co-Chair: Stylianos Kavadias; Committee Member: Marco Ceccagnoli; Committee Member: Pinar Keskinocak; Committee Member: Vinod Singha

The Impact of Macroeconomic Uncertainty on Cash Holdings for Non-Financial Firms

This paper investigates the effects of macroeconomic volatility on nonfinancial firms cash holding behavior. Using an augmented cash bufferstock model, we demonstrate that an increase in macroeconomic volatility will cause the crosssectional distribution of firms cashtoasset ratios to narrow. We test this prediction on a panel of nonfinancial firms drawn from the annual COMPUSTAT database covering the period 19572000, and find that as macroeconomic uncertainty increases, firms behave more homogeneously. Our results are shown to be robust to the inclusion of the levels of several macroeconomic factors. --Cash holdings,macroeconomic uncertainty,time series,ARCH,nonfinancial Firms.