The second moments matter: The response of bank lending behavior to macroeconomic uncertainty

Abstract

In this paper we investigate whether macroeconomic uncertainty could distort banks’ allocation of loanable funds. To provide a road- map for our empirical investigation, we present a simple framework which demonstrates that lower uncertainty about the return from lending should lead to a more unequal distribution of lending across banks as managers take advantage of more precise knowledge of different lending opportunities. When bank-specific differences in lending opportunities are harder to predict, we should observe less cross-sectional variation in loan-to-asset ratios. Using a comprehensive U.S. commercial bank data set, we receive support for our hypothesis.Bank lending, financial intermediation, credit, macroeconomic, uncertainty, panel data, ARCH.