Public Sector Spending and Macroeconomic Variables in Nigeria

This paper examines public sector activities and macroeconomic variables in Nigeria within a period of forty years (1970-2010). With special focus on the effectiveness in the period of regulation (1970-1985) and deregulation (1986-2010) of the Nigerian economy. A test of causal relationships between government expenditure (GE) and other explanatory variables-GDP, unemployment (UER), inflation (IFR) Balance of payment (BOP) was examined using the following statistical tools – Augmented Dicky Fuller (ADF) stationarity test, Johanson’s co-integration test, OLS, multiple regression analysis and Granger causality test. The time series data were found to be stationary in the short-run and a number of co-integrating equations were found to establish long-run relationships among the variables of study. The results include: Public sector was more effective though marginally in stimulating economic growth (measured by GDP) in the period of regulation and more effective in reducing unemployment and enhancing BOP in the period of regulation.With respect to maintaining price stability, the public sector was significantly more effective in the period of de-regulation. Granger causality test shows causal flow from government expenditure (GE) to BOP no causal flows to GDP, inflation rate (IFR) and unemployment (UER). We therefore conclude that though public sector is generally effective theoretically, yet it has inherent practical limitations (Social, Political, Cultural, Economic and Geographical) that sometimes tend to minimize its effectiveness. The theoretical implication therefore is to integrate public sector policy theory formation for effectiveness, because of the peculiarities of our situation. The paper therefore recommend appropriate policy mix improvement in quality of government expenditure, infrastructural development value – added export, regulated flow of FDI to retail sector, emphasis on import of capital good, and focus on the agricultural sector among others

Government Expenditure and Inflation Rate in Nigeria: An Empirical Analyses of Pairwise Causal Relationship

The study investigates the nature and extent of causal relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in a 42-year  period (1970-2011).Times series data obtained from the Central Bank's statistical bulletin of relevant years are analysed using descriptive(graphs and charts) and inferential(correlation,stationarity,Johansen's cointegration test and Granger causality test) analysis.The variables are stationary,weakly and inversely correlated and show longrun relationship.However,they did not granger-cause each other implying that there exists no pairwise causal relationship between them. We recommend appropriate fiscal-monetary policy mix,redirecting government expenditure to productive channels in the economy and maintaing a strategic balance between capital and recurrent expenditure. Keywords: Government Expenditure;Inflation Rate;Pair-wise causal relationship; Granger causality test

Government Expenditure and Inflation Rate in Nigeria: An Empirical Analyses of Pairwise Causal Relationship.

The study investigates the nature and extent of causal relationship between government expenditure and inflation rate in a 42-year  period (1970-2011). Times series data obtained from the Central Bank's statistical bulletin of relevant years are analysed using descriptive(graphs and charts) and inferential (correlation, stationarity, Johansen's cointegration test and Granger causality test) analysis. The  variables are stationary, weakly and inversely correlated and show longrun relationship. However, they did not granger-cause each other implying that there exists no pairwise causal relationship between them. We recommend appropriate fiscal-monetary policy mix,redirecting government expenditure to productive channels in the economy and maintaing ba strategic balance between capital and recurrent expenditure. Keywords: Government Expenditure; Inflation Rate; Pair-wise causal relationship; Granger causality test

Abdominal ultrasonography in HIV/AIDS patients in southwestern Nigeria

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Though the major target of the HIV-virus is the immune system, the frequency of abdominal disorders in HIV/AIDS patients has been reported to be second only to pulmonary disease. These abdominal manifestations may be on the increase as the use of antiretroviral therapy has increased life expectancy and improved quality of life. Ultrasonography is an easy to perform, non invasive, inexpensive and safe imaging technique that is invaluable in Africa where AIDS is most prevalent and where sophisticated diagnostic tools are not readily available. Purpose: To describe the findings and evaluate the clinical utility of abdominal ultrasonography in HIV/AIDS patients in Ibadan, Nigeria</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>A Prospective evaluation of the abdominal ultrasonography of 391 HIV-positive patients as well as 391 age and sex-matched HIV-negative patients were carried out at the University College Hospital, Ibadan.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Of the 391 cases studied, 260 (66.5%) were females; the mean age was 38.02 years, (range 15–66 years). The disease was most prevalent in the 4th decade with an incidence of 40.4%. Compared with the HIV-negative individuals, the HIV+ group of patients had a significantly higher proportion of splenomegaly (13.5% vs. 7.7%; p < 0.01), lymphadenopathy (2.0% vs. 1.3%; p < 0.70), and renal abnormalities (8.4% vs. 3.8%; p < 0.02). There were no differences in hepatic and pancreatic abnormalities between the HIV+ and HIV- groups. There were significantly fewer gallstones in the HIV+ group (1.4% vs. 5.1%; p < 0.01).</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>AIDS is a multi-systemic disease and its demographic and clinical pattern remains the same globally. Ultrasonography is optimally suited for its clinical management especially in Africa. Its accuracy and sensitivity may be much improved with clinico-pathologic correlation which may not be readily available in developing countries; further studies may provide this much needed diagnostic algorithms.</p

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. METHODS: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. FINDINGS: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. INTERPRETATION: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification. FUNDING: UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research

Author Correction: Federated learning enables big data for rare cancer boundary detection.

10.1038/s41467-023-36188-7NATURE COMMUNICATIONS14

Federated learning enables big data for rare cancer boundary detection.

Although machine learning (ML) has shown promise across disciplines, out-of-sample generalizability is concerning. This is currently addressed by sharing multi-site data, but such centralization is challenging/infeasible to scale due to various limitations. Federated ML (FL) provides an alternative paradigm for accurate and generalizable ML, by only sharing numerical model updates. Here we present the largest FL study to-date, involving data from 71 sites across 6 continents, to generate an automatic tumor boundary detector for the rare disease of glioblastoma, reporting the largest such dataset in the literature (n = 6, 314). We demonstrate a 33% delineation improvement for the surgically targetable tumor, and 23% for the complete tumor extent, over a publicly trained model. We anticipate our study to: 1) enable more healthcare studies informed by large diverse data, ensuring meaningful results for rare diseases and underrepresented populations, 2) facilitate further analyses for glioblastoma by releasing our consensus model, and 3) demonstrate the FL effectiveness at such scale and task-complexity as a paradigm shift for multi-site collaborations, alleviating the need for data-sharing

Multiorgan MRI findings after hospitalisation with COVID-19 in the UK (C-MORE): a prospective, multicentre, observational cohort study

Data sharing: The protocol, consent form, definition and derivation of clinical characteristics and outcomes, training materials, regulatory documents, requests for data access and other relevant study materials are available online at https://www.phosp.org.The online publication has been corrected. The corrected version first appeared at thelancet.com/respiratory on October 30, 2023The writing committee is listed at the end of the Article and a complete list of members of the C-MORE/PHOSP-COVID Collaborative Group is provided in the appendix (pp 1–10) available online at https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221326002300262X?via%3Dihub#sec1 .Supplementary Material is available online at: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S221326002300262X?via%3Dihub#sec1 .Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Introduction: The multiorgan impact of moderate to severe coronavirus infections in the post-acute phase is still poorly understood. We aimed to evaluate the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities after hospitalisation with COVID-19, evaluate their determinants, and explore associations with patient-related outcome measures. Methods: In a prospective, UK-wide, multicentre MRI follow-up study (C-MORE), adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital following COVID-19 who were included in Tier 2 of the Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) and contemporary controls with no evidence of previous COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibody negative) underwent multiorgan MRI (lungs, heart, brain, liver, and kidneys) with quantitative and qualitative assessment of images and clinical adjudication when relevant. Individuals with end-stage renal failure or contraindications to MRI were excluded. Participants also underwent detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical tests. The primary outcome was the excess burden of multiorgan abnormalities (two or more organs) relative to controls, with further adjustments for potential confounders. The C-MORE study is ongoing and is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, NCT04510025. Findings: Of 2710 participants in Tier 2 of PHOSP-COVID, 531 were recruited across 13 UK-wide C-MORE sites. After exclusions, 259 C-MORE patients (mean age 57 years [SD 12]; 158 [61%] male and 101 [39%] female) who were discharged from hospital with PCR-confirmed or clinically diagnosed COVID-19 between March 1, 2020, and Nov 1, 2021, and 52 non-COVID-19 controls from the community (mean age 49 years [SD 14]; 30 [58%] male and 22 [42%] female) were included in the analysis. Patients were assessed at a median of 5·0 months (IQR 4·2–6·3) after hospital discharge. Compared with non-COVID-19 controls, patients were older, living with more obesity, and had more comorbidities. Multiorgan abnormalities on MRI were more frequent in patients than in controls (157 [61%] of 259 vs 14 [27%] of 52; p5mg/L, OR 3·55 [1·23–11·88]; padjusted=0·025) than those without multiorgan abnormalities. Presence of lung MRI abnormalities was associated with a two-fold higher risk of chest tightness, and multiorgan MRI abnormalities were associated with severe and very severe persistent physical and mental health impairment (PHOSP-COVID symptom clusters) after hospitalisation. Interpretation: After hospitalisation for COVID-19, people are at risk of multiorgan abnormalities in the medium term. Our findings emphasise the need for proactive multidisciplinary care pathways, with the potential for imaging to guide surveillance frequency and therapeutic stratification.UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research