Устаревает ли показатель ВВП в условиях глобализации экономики?

Multinationals play an increasingly important role in the world economy. Their fiscal optimization leads to bias macroeconomic statistics. This was ignored by statisticians until the Irish CSO published an extraordinary +27% growth number for 2015. This originates most probably from a simple administrative reallocation in Dublin of the intellectual property products of a big American multinational. As royalties are classified as production in national accounts and exports are registered not from where they are physically shipped but from the country that holds their property rights, GDP was massively impacted.Many economists were thunderstruck. Some concluded that a «national» GDP is now obsolete. Some that only its income approach remains relevant. In this article, the author strongly advocates that a national GDP in volume remains an essential tool for economic policy and that, if necessary, statisticians should reconsider the rules of the SNA 2008, whether to classify royalties as production or to extrapolate the goods for processing concept, in order to recover a sensible measure of growth. Транснациональные корпорации играют все более важную роль в мировой экономике. Проводимая ими фискальная оптимизация порождает смещенные оценки в макроэкономической статистике. Данный факт статистики игнорировали, пока Центральное статистическое управление Ирландии не опубликовало экстраординарную оценку индекса экономического роста за 2015 г.: +27%. Скорее всего, это происходит из-за простого административного решения - переноса продуктов интеллектуальной собственности крупной американской многонациональной корпорации в Дублин. Поскольку роялти в национальных счетах классифицируются как производство, а экспорт регистрируется не там, где продукты физически отгружаются, а в стране, которая обладает правами собственности на них, это в значительной мере повлияло на ВВП.Многие экономисты были ошеломлены. Некоторые пришли к выводу, что показатель «национальный ВВП» в настоящее время устарел. Другие - что релевантным можно считать только метод его расчета по доходам. Автор же этой статьи решительно выступает за то, чтобы национальный ВВП, измеряемый в постоянных ценах, оставался важным инструментом экономической политики, а при необходимости, для того чтобы восстановить его в качестве разумной меры роста, статистики должны пересмотреть правила СНС-2008: идет ли речь о классификации роялти как производства или об экстраполяции концепции «товары для переработки»

The new economy and the measurement of GDP growth

In connection with a surge in the "new economy" that is statistically difficult to measure, doubts have been cast both on European growth and its comparability with that of the United States. This article explores measurement problems in the French case. The data at current prices seem to be reliable, but information by product is becoming increasingly difficult to establish. Contrary to widely held belief, the differences in the application of the famous "hedonic methods" have only a small impact on the French data. On the other hand, there seems to be a difference in the treatment of data between France and the United States, or rather between several European countries and the United States, regarding the distinction between final consumption and intermediate consumption of IT products. The United States national accounts record more gross fixed capital formation in software, ceteris paribus, and this automatically produces a higher measure of GDP in recent years. The difference may be the result of different industrial processes, but it cannot be ruled out that it may be merely the result of applying a different statistical convention. In that case, one might then speak of a comparability bias. The method most widely used in Europe -- and which therefore preserves intra-European comparability -- maintains consistency with the results of private accounting, whereas the American method diverges from it. The use of "net domestic product instead of the usual "gross domestic product" improves comparability with the United States. Taking net domestic product reduces the growth differential between France and the United States in 1999 by half a point.national accounts, new economy, GDP, international comparison, information and communication technologies

Socio-economic studies with social accounting and sociodemographic matrices : an application to Portugal.

In looking for empirical evidence about the activity of countries, a proposal is made for studying (measuring and modelling) the activity of countries through the use of Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) and Socio-Demographic Matrices (SDMs). SAMs and SDMs are presented as tools that have specific features for conducting studies in several different areas, as well as for supporting policy decision processes. Based on methodological principles that are derived mainly from the works of Richard Stone, emphasis is placed on the desirability of working in a matrix format, which includes not only people (SDM), but also, at the same time, activities, products, factors of production and institutions (SAM). This is considered to be a way of capturing the relevant network of linkages and the corresponding multiplier effects, which can be used for the subsequent modelling of the activity of the countries studied. A method will be proposed for the construction of these matrices. In the case of the SAMs, it is proposed that their design and construction should adopt, at least as their starting point, the latest version of the System of National Accounts (2008 SNA) and the corresponding results of its adoption/adaptation by different countries. The exposition of this proposal is accompanied by an example applied to Portugal.Financial support provided by FCT (Fundação para a Ciência e a Tecnologia)Portugal for the research and writing of this article, which forms part of the Strategic Project for 2011-13 (PEst- OE/EGE/UI0436/2011)

Growth and cycles of the Italian economy since 1861: the new evidence

Based on a newly-available large set of historical national accounts, the paper revisits the main features of economic growth and cycles in Italy for the post-Unification period 1861-2011. Alongside the structural changes in growth dynamics, the main sources of output and productivity growth are identified. As regards the analysis of the underlying cyclical component, a business cycle chronology is first established and then both the specific patterns of individual cycles and the co-movements of output with key macroeconomic variables are investigated. In the 150 years since its political Unification, Italy's economic growth was mainly propelled by consumption and investments, whereas on the supply side the industry and services sectors were by far the main contributors, also because of the positive effect of labour reallocation to nonfarm activities. Over the same period, Italy experienced approximately 20 business cycles of varying duration and amplitude. Output fluctuations were dominated by the short-term variability of agricultural production before World War II and by fluctuations of the industry sector thereafter. The cyclical behaviour exhibited by aggregate demand components conforms quite well to that evidenced in the standard international business cycle literature, although some exceptions arise in the pre-World War II years