The launch of the euro

The introduction on January 1, 1999, of the euro--the single currency adopted by eleven of the fifteen countries of the European Union--marked the beginning of the final stage of Economic and Monetary Union and the start of a new era in Europe. The creation of a single currency and a single monetary policy has provided both extraordinary challenges and exceptional opportunities within Europe. This article reviews the organization, objectives, and targets of the euro area's new central bank and discusses some of the early challenges it has faced in setting and implementing monetary policy with the new common currency. It discusses the initial functioning of the payment system and the interbank market and reviews the effects to date of the single currency on European bond and equity markets, on the banking system, and in euro-area transactions.Euro ; European Monetary System (Organization) ; European currency unit

Finance and macroeconomic volatility

Countries with more developed financial sectors, experience fewer fluctuations in real per capita output, consumption, and investment growth. But the manner in which the financial sector develops matters. The relative importance of banks in the financial system is important in explaining consumption, and investment volatility. The proportion of credit provided to the private sector, best explains volatility of consumption, and output. The authors generate their main results using fixed-effects estimates with panel data from seventy countries for the years 1956-98. Their general findings suggest that the risk management, and information processing provided by banks, maybe especially important in reducing consumption, and investment volatility. The simple availability of credit to the private sector, probably helps smooth consumption, and GDP.Economic Theory&Research,Inequality,Environmental Economics&Policies,Achieving Shared Growth,Financial Intermediation

Geography, Demography, and Early Development

This paper explores the role of geography in economic development and demographic transition. It presents a growth model where survival is endogenously determined and where the odds of survival and the returns to labor are higher in geographically favorable regions. Higher life expectancy prompts parents to devote more of their resources to old-age consumption and enjoyment. Consequently, the invest relatively more in the quantity and quality of their offspring. Investment in education, together with population growth eventually triggers technological progress. As the level of technology improves and life expectancy rises along with it, a geographically advantageous economy first enters a post-Malthusian regime during which both fertility and educational attainment increase. Then, as further improvements in technology lead to a higher education premium, such an economy undergoes a demographic transition during which life expectancy continues to rise and parents have fewer but more educated children. In regions where geography is more adverse, this transition does not take place and economies remain trapped in the Malthusian regime. Thus, accounting for the role of geography in development helps to link demographic transition to geography and shows that the latter affects the economy mostly indirectly through the impact of geography on households' demographic choices. In the early stages of development, those choices in turn determine whether economies attain the scale and scope necessary for sustained economic progress. The paper also provides a framework with which to asses why geography may matter less today.

Short-term electricity load forecasting with special days: an analysis on parametric and non-parametric methods

Accurately forecasting electricity demand is a key business competency for firms in deregulated electricity markets. Market participants can reap significant financial benefits by improving their electricity load forecasts. Electricity load exhibits a complex time-series structure with nonlinear relationships among the variables. Hence, models with higher capabilities to capture such nonlinear relationships need to be developed and tested. In this paper, we present a parametric and a nonparametric method for short-term load forecasting, and compare the performances of these models for lead times ranging from 1 h to 1 week. In particular, we consider a modified version of the Holt-Winters double seasonal exponential smoothing (m-HWT) model and a nonlinear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) neural network model. Using hourly load data from the Dutch electricity grid, we carry out an extensive empirical study for five Dutch provinces. Our results indicate that NARX clearly outperforms m-HWT in 1-h-ahead forecasting. Additionally, our modification to HWT leads to a significant improvement in model accuracy especially for special days. Despite its simplicity, m-HWT outperforms NARX for 6- and 12-h-ahead forecasts in general; however, NARX performs better in 24-h-, 48-h- and 1-week-ahead forecasting. In addition, NARX provides drastically lower maximum errors compared to m-HWT, and also clearly outperforms m-HWT in forecasting for short holidays. © 2017 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC, part of Springer Natur

EphA2-receptor deficiency exacerbates myocardial infarction and reduces survival in hyperglycemic mice

Background We have previously shown that EphrinA1/EphA expression profile changes in response to myocardial infarction (MI), exogenous EphrinA1-Fc administration following MI positively influences wound healing, and that deletion of the EphA2 Receptor (EphA2-R) exacerbates injury and remodeling. To determine whether or not ephrinA1-Fc would be of therapeutic value in the hyperglycemic infarcted heart, it is critical to evaluate how ephrinA1/EphA signaling changes in the hyperglycemic myocardium in response to MI. Methods Streptozotocin (STZ)-induced hyperglycemia in wild type (WT) and EphA2-receptor mutant (EphA2-R-M) mice was initiated by an intraperitoneal injection of STZ (150 mg/kg) 10 days before surgery. MI was induced by permanent ligation of the left anterior descending coronary artery and analyses were performed at 4 days post-MI. ANOVAs with Student-Newman Keuls multiple comparison post-hoc analysis illustrated which groups were significantly different, with significance of at least p < 0.05. Results Both WT and EphA2-R-M mice responded adversely to STZ, but only hyperglycemic EphA2-R-M mice had lower ejection fraction (EF) and fractional shortening (FS). At 4 days post-MI, we observed greater post-MI mortality in EphA2-R-M mice compared with WT and this was greater still in the EphA2-R-M hyperglycemic mice. Although infarct size was greater in hyperglycemic WT mice vs normoglycemic mice, there was no difference between hyperglycemic EphA2-R-M mice and normoglycemic EphA2-R-M mice. The hypertrophic response that normally occurs in viable myocardium remote to the infarct was noticeably absent in epicardial cardiomyocytes and cardiac dysfunction worsened in hyperglycemic EphA2-R-M hearts post-MI. The characteristic interstitial fibrotic response in the compensating myocardium remote to the infarct also did not occur in hyperglycemic EphA2-R-M mouse hearts to the same extent as that observed in the hyperglycemic WT mouse hearts. Differences in neutrophil and pan-leukocyte infiltration and serum cytokines implicate EphA2-R in modulation of injury and the differences in ephrinA1 and EphA6-R expression in governing this are discussed. Conclusions We conclude that EphA2-mutant mice are more prone to hyperglycemia-induced increased injury, decreased survival, and worsened LV remodeling due to impaired wound healing

Gender gaps in education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Gender Gaps in Education

This chapter reviews the growing body of research in economics which concentrates on the education gender gap and its evolution, over time and across countries. The survey first focuses on gender differentials in the historical period that roughly goes from 1850 to the 1940s and documents the deep determinants of the early phase of female education expansion, including preindustrial conditions, religion, and family and kinship patterns. Next, the survey describes the stylized facts of contemporaneous gender gaps in education, from the 1950s to the present day, accounting for several alternative measures of attainment and achievement and for geographic and temporal differentiations. The determinants of the gaps are then summarized, while keeping a strong emphasis on an historical perspective and disentangling factors related to the labor market, family formation, psychological elements, and societal cultural norms. A discussion follows of the implications of the education gender gap for multiple realms, from economic growth to family life, taking into account the potential for reverse causation. Special attention is devoted to the persistency of gender gaps in the STEM and economics fields

Inspired or foolhardy: sensemaking, confidence and entrepreneurs' decision-making.

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the role of confidence in how both new and experienced entrepreneurs interpret and make sense of their business environment to inform decision-making. We illustrate our conceptual arguments with descriptive results from a large-scale (n = 6289) survey on entrepreneurs' perception of business performance and their decisions taken at a time of uncertainty in an economic downturn. Quantitative findings are stratified along experiential lines to explore heterogeneity in entrepreneurial decision-making and directly inform our conceptual arguments, while qualitative data from open questions are used to explain the role of confidence. Newer entrepreneurs are found to be more optimistic in the face of environmental risk, which impacts on their decision-making and innovative capabilities. However, the more experienced entrepreneurs warily maintain margin and restructure to adapt to environmental changes. Instead of looking directly at the confidence of individuals, we show how confidence impacts sensemaking, and ultimately, decision-making. These insights inform research on the behaviour of novice and experienced entrepreneurs in relation to innovative business activities. Specifically, blanket assumptions on the role of confidence may be misplaced as its impact changes with experience to alter how entrepreneurs make sense of their environment