Improving prediction of dam failure peak outflow using neuroevolution combined with K-means clustering

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from the publisher via the DOI in this record.Estimation of peak outflow resulting from dam failure is of paramount importance for flood risk analysis. This paper presents a new hybrid clustering model based on Artificial Neural Networks and Genetic Algorithm (ANN-GA) for improving predictions of peak outflow from breached embankment dams. The input layer of the ANN-based model comprises height and volume of water behind the breach at failure time plus a new parameter of ‘cluster number’. The cluster number is obtained from partitioning the input data set using K-means clustering technique. The model is demonstrated using the data samples collected from the literature and compared with three benchmark models by using cross-validation method. The benchmark models consist of a conventional regression model and two ANN models trained by non-linear techniques. Results indicate that the suggested model is able to estimate the peak outflows more accurately especially for big flood events. The best prediction for the current database was obtained from a five-clustered ANN-GA model. The uncertainty analysis shows the five-clustered ANN-GA model has the lowest prediction error and the smallest uncertainty.The authors gratefully acknowledge the financial and other supports of this research provided by the Islamic Azad University, Islamshahr branch, Tehran, Ira

ThSSim:a novel tool for simulation of reservoir thermal stratification

Abstract This study presents a novel tool, ThSSim, for simulation of thermal stratification (ThS) in reservoirs. ThSSim is a simple and flexible reduced-order model-based the basis function (RMBF) that combines CE-QUAL-W2 (W2) and proper orthogonal decomposition (POD). In a case study, it was used to simulate water temperature in the Karkheh Reservoir (KR), Iran, for the period 2019–2035. ThSSim consists of two space- and time-dependent components that add predictive ability to the RMBF, a major refinement that extends its practical applications. Water temperature simulations by the W2 model at three-hour time intervals for the KR were used as input data to the POD model to develop ThSSim. To add predictive ability to ThSSim and considering that space-dependent components are not a function of time, we extrapolated the first three time-dependent components by September 30, 2035. We checked the predictive ability of ThSSim against water temperature profiles measured during eight sampling campaigns. We then applied ThSSim to simulate water temperature in the KR for 2019–2035. Simulated water temperature values matched well those measured and obtained by W2. ThSSim results showed an increasing trend for surface water temperature during the simulation period, with a reverse trend observed for water temperature in the bottom layers for three seasons (spring, summer and autumn). The results also indicated decreasing and increasing trends in onset and breakdown of thermal stability, respectively, so that the duration of ThS increased from 278 days in 2019 to 293 days in 2035. ThSSim is thus useful for reservoir temperature simulations. Moreover, the approach used to develop ThSSim is widely applicable to other fields of science and engineering

Reliability of functional forms for calculation of longitudinal dispersion coefficient in rivers

Abstract Although dimensional analysis suggests sound functional forms (FFs) to calculate longitudinal dispersion coefficient (Kx), no attempt has been made to quantify both reliability of the estimated Kx value and its sensitivity to variation of the FFs' parameters. This paper introduces a new index named bandwidths similarity factor (bws–factor) to quantify the reliability of FFs based on a rigorous analysis of distinct calibration datasets to tune the FFs. We modified the bootstrap approach to ensure that each resampled calibration dataset is representative of available datapoints in a rich, global database of tracer studies. The dimensionless Kx values were calculated by 200 FFs tuned with the generalized reduced gradient algorithm. Correlation coefficients for the tuned FFs varied from 0.60 to 0.98. The bws–factor ranged from 0.11 to 1.00, indicating poor reliability of FFs for Kx calculation, mainly due to different sources of error in the Kx calculation process. The calculated exponent of the river's aspect ratio varied over a wider range (i.e., −0.76 to 1.50) compared to that computed for the river's friction term (i.e., −0.56 to 0.87). Since Kx is used in combination with one-dimensional numerical models in water quality studies, poor reliability in its estimation can result in unrealistic concentrations being simulated by the models downstream of pollutant release into rivers

Metal contamination assessment in water column and surface sediments of a warm monomictic man-made lake:Sabalan Dam Reservoir, Iran

Abstract In this study, metal concentrations in the water column and surface sediment of the Sabalan Dam Reservoir (SDR) were determined. Moreover, heavy metal pollution index (HPI), contamination index (CI), heavy metal evaluation index (HEI), enrichment factor (EF), geo-accumulation index (Igeo), sediment quality guidelines (SQGs), consensus-based SQGs (C-BSQGs), and mean probable effect concentration quotients (mPECQs) were evaluated for water and sediments of SDR. It was observed that metal concentrations in river entry sediment were lower, but those in river entry water were higher than corresponding values in the vicinity of the dam structure. The HPI values of water samples taken from 10 m depth in the center of SDR exceeded the critical limit, due to high concentrations of arsenic. However, according to CI, the reservoir water was not contaminated. The HEI values indicated contamination of SDR water with metals at 10 m depth. A comparison of water quality indices revealed that HEI was the most reliable index in water quality assessment, while CI and HPI were not sufficiently accurate. For SQGs, As and Cu concentrations in sediments were high, but mPECQ, Igeo, and EF revealed some degree of sediment pollution in SDR. The calculated EF values suggested minor anthropogenic enrichment of sediment with Fe, Co, V, and Ni; moderate anthropogenic enrichment with As and Mn; and moderate to severe anthropogenic enrichment with Cu. A comparison of SQG values revealed that the threshold effect and probable effect levels were the most reliable metrics in the assessment of sediment toxicity. Statistical analysis indicated similarities between metal concentrations in the center of the reservoir and near to the dam structure, as a result of similar sediment deposition behavior at these points, while higher flow velocity at the river entry point limited deposition of fine particles and associated metals

Caspian Sea is eutrophying:the alarming message of satellite data

Abstract The competition over extracting the energy resources of the Caspian Sea together with the major anthropogenic changes in the coastal zones have resulted in increased pollution and environmental degradation of the sea. We provide the first evaluation of the spatiotemporal variation of chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) across the Caspian Sea. Using remotely sensed data from 2003 to 2017, we found that the Caspian Sea has suffered from a growing increase in Chl-a, especially in warmer months. The shallow parts of the sea, near Russia and Kazakhstan, especially where the Volga and Terek rivers discharge large nutrient loads (nitrogen- and phosphorus-rich compounds) into the sea, have experienced the highest variations in Chl-a. The Carlson's trophic state index showed that during the study period, on average, about 12%, 26%, and 62% of the Caspian Sea's area was eutrophic, mesotrophic, and oligotrophic, respectively. The identified trends reflect an increasing rate of environmental degradation in the Caspian Sea, which has been the subject of conflict among its littoral states that since the collapse of the Soviet Union have remained unable to agree on a legal regime for governing the sea and its resources