Models for population-wide and portfolio-specific mortality

The life expectancy is a statistic that depends on forecasted human mortality rates. The last two centuries it has increased substantially, and it is expected that it will increase even further in the future. Pension funds and insurance companies have made obligations to participants respectively policyholders to make (pension) payments that often occur far in the future and which depend on survivorship or death. It is therefore crucial for these institutions that they accurately estimate how mortality rates will develop in the future to ensure that they hold sufficient capital to meet all future obligations. For good risk management, it is also important to understand the uncertainty associated with the developments in mortality rates. Moreover, people with a different socioeconomic background and different life style experience different levels of mortality, and this may result in large differences in life expectancy. Such differences can be found in the whole population but they also exist within a pension fund or insurance portfolio, and this should be taken into account when valuing liabilities. This thesis develops models to obtain better estimates of mortality developments and the uncertainty associated with these developments, and a framework in which adjustments to population mortality rates can be estimated on an individual level. This helps pension funds and insurance companies to value their liabilities more accurately

The ab-anisotrophy of twinfree YBa₂Cu₃O_7-δ films above and below T_c

High quality twin-free c-axis oriented YBa2Cu3O7 films were grown by pulsed laser deposition on NdGaO3. We find resistive anisotropies between 1 < a/b < 1.6. The resistive anisotropy above Tc appears to be correlated to the anisotropy in the critical current below Tc. The normal state properties of the chains along b seem to have a significant influence on the superconducting properties of YBa2Cu3O7

Si interstitial contribution of F+ implants in crystalline Si

The F effect in crystalline Si is quantified by monitoring defects and B diffusion in samples implanted with 25 keV F+ and/or 40 keV Si+. We estimate that about +0.4 Si interstitials are generated per implanted F+ ion, in agreement with the value resulting from the net separation of Frenkel pairs. For short annealings, B diffusion is lower when F+ is coimplanted with Si+ than when only Si+ is implanted, while for longer annealings, B diffusion is higher. This is consistent with a lower but longer-lasting Si interstitial supersaturation set by the additional defects generated by the F+ implant

Phonological facilitation of grammatical gender retrieval.

In Dutch, the gender of nouns is marked by the definite articles de (common gender) and het (neuter gender). Most models of language production assume that gender information is retrieved via the noun's syntactic representation (or lemma). The authors test Caramazza's (1997) alternative proposal, according to which gender information is retrieved via the noun's phonological word form (or lexeme). In three picture-word experiments, which differed in the tasks to be performed (noun production, article+noun production, article production, and gender decision), clear phonological effects were obtained in tasks involving the retrieval of the noun's gender information. It is argued that traditional models of language production have difficulty in accounting for the occurrence and/or the size of these effects whereas they follow quite naturally from Caramazza's (1997) Independent Network model. © 2004 Psychology Press Ltd

Excess Mortality for Abdominal Aortic Aneurysms and the Potential of Strict Implementation of Cardiovascular Risk Management: A Multifaceted Study Integrating Meta-Analysis, National Registry, and PHAST and TEDY Trial Data

Objective: Previous studies imply a profound residual mortality risk following successful abdominal aorta aneurysm (AAA) repair. This excess mortality is generally attributed to increased cardiovascular risk. The aim of this study was (1) to quantify the excess residual mortality for patients with AAA, (2) to evaluate the cross sectional level of cardiovascular risk management, and (3) to estimate the potential of optimised cardiovascular risk management to reduce the excess mortality in these patients. Methods: Excess mortality was estimated through a systematic review and meta-analysis, and through data from the Swedish National Health Registry. Cardiovascular risk profiles were individually assessed during eligibility screening of patients with AAA for two multicentre pharmaceutical AAA stabilisation trials. The potential of full implementation of cardiovascular risk management was estimated through the validated Second Manifestations of ARTerial disease (SMART) risk scores algorithm. Results: The meta-analysis showed a similarly impaired survival for patients who received early repair (small AAA) or regular repair (≥ 55 mm), and a further impaired survival for patients under surveillance for a small AAA. Excess mortality was further quantified using Swedish population data. The data revealed a more than quadrupled and doubled five year mortality rate for women and men who had their AAA repaired, respectively. Evaluation of the level of risk management of 358 patients under surveillance in 16 Dutch hospitals showed that the majority of patients with AAA did not meet therapeutic targets set for risk management in high risk populations, and indicated a more pronounced prevention gap in women. Application of the SMART risk score algorithm predicted that optimal implementation of risk management guidelines would reduce the 10 year risk of major adverse cardiovascular events from 43% to 14%. Conclusion: Independent of the rupture risk, AAA is associated with a worryingly compromised life expectancy with a particularly poor prognosis for women. Optimal implementation of cardiovascular risk prevention guidelines is predicted to profoundly reduce cardiovascular risk

Nanocrystalline materials studied by powder diffraction line profile analysis

X-ray powder diffraction is a powerful tool for characterising the microstructure of crystalline materials in terms of size and strain. It is widely applied for nanocrystalline materials, especially since other methods, in particular electron microscopy is, on the one hand tedious and time consuming, on the other hand, due to the often metastable states of nanomaterials it might change their microstructures. It is attempted to overview the applications of microstructure characterization by powder diffraction on nanocrystalline metals, alloys, ceramics and carbon base materials. Whenever opportunity is given, the data provided by the X-ray method are compared and discussed together with results of electron microscopy. Since the topic is vast we do not try to cover the entire field

Patients Enrolled in Large Randomized Clinical Trials of Antiplatelet Treatment for Prevention After Transient Ischemic Attack or Ischemic Stroke Are Not Representative of Patients in Clinical Practice: the Netherlands Stroke Survey

Background and Purpose—Many randomized clinical trials have evaluated the benefit of long-term use of antiplatelet drugs in reducing the risk of new vascular events in patients with a recent transient ischemic attack or ischemic stroke. Evidence from these trials forms the basis for national and international guidelines for the management of nearly all such patients in clinical practice. However, abundant and strict enrollment criteria may limit the validity and the applicability of results of randomized clinical trials to clinical practice. We estimated the eligibility for participation in landmark trials of antiplatelet drugs of an unselected group of patients with stroke or transient ischemic attack from a national stroke survey. Methods—Nine hundred seventy-two patients with transient ischemic at