Strategy for the Terror War

Op-Ed on how to fight the War on Terro

Why States Believe Foolish Ideas

Article on State non-self evaluatio

Militarism

Book Chapter on the influence of an effects of military organizations on wa

Public Diplomacy: Ideas for the War of Ideas

The United States cannot defeat al-Qaeda by strength of arms alone. It must also change the terms of debate in the Arab/Muslim world, especially in its radical wing. How can this best be accomplished? What strategy should the United States adopt for what is often called the “war of ideas” against radical Islam?Carnegie Corporation of New Yor

The War on Terror

Presents comments (from the EPIIC Symposium at Tufts University, February 2004) concerning the war on terror; concern on the problem about terrorism; elaboration on the claim that the world is not in a global war on terror; and problems of the use and abuse of the word terrorism

Explicit Bayesian analysis for process tracing: guidelines, opportunities, and caveats

Bayesian probability holds the potential to serve as an important bridge between qualitative and quantitative methodology. Yet whereas Bayesian statistical techniques have been successfully elaborated for quantitative research, applying Bayesian probability to qualitative research remains an open frontier. This paper advances the burgeoning literature on Bayesian process tracing by drawing on expositions of Bayesian “probability as extended logic” from the physical sciences, where probabilities represent rational degrees of belief in propositions given the inevitably limited information we possess. We provide step-by-step guidelines for explicit Bayesian process tracing, calling attention to technical points that have been overlooked or inadequately addressed, and we illustrate how to apply this approach with the first systematic application to a case study that draws on multiple pieces of detailed evidence. While we caution that efforts to explicitly apply Bayesian learning in qualitative social science will inevitably run up against the difficulty that probabilities cannot be unambiguously specified, we nevertheless envision important roles for explicit Bayesian analysis in pinpointing the locus of contention when scholars disagree on inferences, and in training intuition to follow Bayesian probability more systematically