Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries

Strong economic growth accompanied with robust export performance leads many people to conclude that export sector of a country has pivotal role in the economic growth of that country. Empirical evidence on export growth nexus has been mixed and inconclusive. This study examined whether there was any time series support for such export-led growth hypothesis for South Asian Countries. Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to test the Granger causality between export and output. The study had produced fairly mixed results, and did not find any conclusive evidence in favor of export-led growth for South Asian Countries. While Pakistan, Srilanka and Bhutan were the cases of export-led growth, India, Nepal, and Maldives show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In one country, namely Bangladesh, the data had failed to detect any causality in either direction which is attributed in low value addition in export.Export-led growth hypothesis, Granger causality test, Unit Root Tests, Error Correction Model

DYNAMICS OF EXCHANGE RATE AND FOREX RESERVES IN BANGLADESH: WAYS TO STABILIZE FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE

The exchange rate and foreign exchange reserves stand as pivotal determinants profoundly impacting external and overall economic conditions. A sustained equilibrium in exchange rates alongside robust reserve levels is imperative for managing inflation and fostering favorable trade balances, thereby, bolstering the nation's holistic economic well-being. This study scrutinizes the dynamic interplay of exchange rates and forex reserves in Bangladesh, drawing upon meticulously curated data from Bangladesh Bank and bruegel.org. Methodologically, the investigation relies on rigorous trend and growth models to elucidate pertinent patterns. The analysis unveils a phase of exchange rate stability vis-à-vis the USD to BDT currency pair pre-2022, followed by a marked escalation in recent years attributable to localized currency devaluation. Noteworthy is the trajectory divergence observed between the Nominal Effective Exchange Rate (NEER), demonstrating a downward trend, and the Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER), exhibiting a contrasting upward trajectory surpassing NEER. Moreover, a conspicuous surge in forex reserves is evident until early 2022, succeeded by a precipitous decline to precarious levels. This downturn is ascribed to multifaceted factors encompassing the Ukraine conflict, volatility in oil prices, burgeoning foreign debt obligations of public and private entities, dwindling Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) inflows, and diminished remittances. The governmental response has entailed the adoption of short-term strategies aimed at mitigating exchange rate volatility and preserving forex reserves. While certain measures have proven efficacious, others have fallen short of desired outcomes. In pursuit of exchange rate stability, the central bank has instituted a crawling peg exchange rate regime, complemented by governmental interventions restricting imports to safeguard forex reserves. Achieving equilibrium mandates concerted governmental endeavors to invigorate remittance and FDI inflows, thus fostering a more robust economic landscape. JEL:  F31, G18, O24  Article visualizations

Causality between Export and Growth: Evidence from South Asian Countries

Strong economic growth accompanied with robust export performance leads many people to conclude that export sector of a country has pivotal role in the economic growth of that country. Empirical evidence on export growth nexus has been mixed and inconclusive. This study examined whether there was any time series support for such export-led growth hypothesis for South Asian Countries. Engle-Granger's Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to test the Granger causality between export and output. The study had produced fairly mixed results, and did not find any conclusive evidence in favor of export-led growth for South Asian Countries. While Pakistan, Srilanka and Bhutan were the cases of export-led growth, India, Nepal, and Maldives show the opposite result of growth-led exports. In one country, namely Bangladesh, the data had failed to detect any causality in either direction which is attributed in low value addition in export

A parametric approach for the study of heat flow between street canyon and the atmosphere

This paper presents the investigation results of the convective heat flow behaviour among the top of an urban street canyon and overlying atmosphere using a numerical model together with available field measurement data in variable geographical and meteorological conditions. It finds that the heat flow structure characterizes the street canyon have a strong relationship with narrowness index, outside wind velocity and latitude of the study area. The increase of the narrowness index and consequently, reduction of the sky-view factor leads to the diminution of heat flow exchange. The temperature of canyon surfaces in smaller narrowness index (n) decreases quickly to the lower degree than the temperature of the surface with larger (n) one. The increase of wind velocity outside of canyon makes this convective heat exchange flow higher, and cooler the street canyon. A parametric approach was established to evaluate this convective heat exchange flow based on the narrowness index, the latitude of the city and outside wind velocity

Impact of improper land use changes on flash flood and river system: a case of Sg Pusu

The impact of land uses can cause significant changes in the hydrological regime of a river basin. Sg. Pusu is a recent example in Malaysia, which is going through indiscriminate changes in the landuses. This study was conducted in response to the recent severe flash flood occurred on 4th June, 2014 due to high rainfall intensity of 82.4 mm/hr which lasted about 2 hours. The flooding depth varied from 0.3 to 1.0 m and the flash flood duration was about 1.5 hours. Although the duration was short but it damaged 12 cars, inundated 2 blocks of the hostels (Mahallah) and caused inconvenience to the staff and students of the campus. The drainage and river systems of the campus was functioning properly as the seven ponds and lakes constructed along the rivers and tributaries could reduce the peak flows coming from the upstream areas. However, due to improper land clearing from 2009 and onwards, the peak flows during the rain events have increased significantly, the lakes and ponds constructed by IIUM has silted up and lost their flow reduction ability. As a result the flash flood incidents have increased compared to the past records. The development activities in the upstream areas not only have increased the severity of flood in the campus but also caused sediment related water pollution turning the Sg. Pusu and its tributaries muddy all the time. Due to the improper land clearing activities in the upstream areas, the runoff peak flow and sediment load has increased tremendously, which the existing lakes, ponds, rivers, culverts and drainage system are unable to cope with. The river is also badly affected by the improper land clearing activities at the upstream areas. The Turbidity and TSS values at the river outlet during the dry day and rainy days are recorded as 1640 NTU and 1290 mg/L and 2510 NTU and 2400 mg/L, respectively. The aesthetic appeal of the river is very repelling due to high turbidity and muddy appearance of the river. As such, proper integrated river basin management with necessary supports from the people and authorities are badly needed to rehabilitate Sg. Pusu which flows through the IIUM Gombak Campus

Wireless capacitor sensing for structural health monitor

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is a method of localizing damage in infrastructures regarding structural strain, vibration or movements due to external contributing factors which mainly occur as a result of natural disasters. The need to analyze such occurrences can prevent potential damage of massive scale. A sensing system with high sensitivity is needed for reliable structural health monitoring. A capacitive sensing circuit is designed using off-the-self-components and transmit data wirelessly using XBee. The circuit can detect small changes of capacitance variation due to structure vibration

Quantification of pollution loads for the rehabilitation of Pusu River

Identification of pollution sources and determination of pollution loads from all areas are very important for sustainable rehabilitation of any contaminated river. Pusu is a small river which, flows through the main campus of International Islamic University Malaysia (IIUM) at Gombak. Poor aesthetics of the river, which is flowing through the entrance of the campus, gives negative impression to the local and international visitors. As such, this study is being conducted to find ways to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner. The point and non-point pollution sources of the river basin are identified. Upper part of the 12.52 km2 river basin is covered with secondary forest. However, it is the lower-middle reaches of the river basin which is being cleared for residential development and source of high sediment load. Flow and concentrations of the common pollutants, important for a healthy river, such as Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD), Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD), Suspended Solids (SS), Turbidity, pH, Ammoniacal Nitrogen (AN), Total Nitrogen (TN) and Total Phosphorus (TP) are determined. Annual pollution loading to the river was calculated based on the primary and secondary data. Concentration of SS was high during the rainy day due to contribution from the non-point sources. There are 7 ponds along the river system within the campus, which are severely affected by high sediment load from the land clearing activities. On the other hand, concentrations of other pollutants were high during the non-rainy days. The main sources of point pollution are the hostels, cafeterias, sewage treatment plants located in the campus. Therefore, both pollution sources need to be controlled in order to rehabilitate the river in a sustainable manner

Effect of sand mining on water quality index of Sg.Pusu

This study was conducted to identify effects of sand mining on the water quality index (WQI) of a small river called Pusu. Seven locations along Sg. Pusu were identified for sampling and analysis of the water quality data. It was observed that the WQI of Pusu River varied between 55 and 65 during dry season and 61 to 70 in wet season. The river falls into Class III category in terms of WQI. However, it exceeds the limit of Class V in terms of Total Suspended Solids (TSS) in both the seasons reaching as high as 1050 mg/L of TSS in dry season and 3100 mg/L in wet season. Such high value is very much alarming for aquatic lives

Wireless structural health monitoring system by capacitor sensing technique

Structural health monitoring (SHM) is a method of localizing damage in infrastructures regarding structural strain, vibration or movements due to external contributing factors which mainly occur as a result of natural disasters. The need to analyze such occurrences can prevent potential damage of massive scale. A sensing system with high sensitivity is needed for reliable structural health monitoring. A capacitive sensing circuit is designed using off-the-self-components and transmit data wirelessly using XBee. The circuit can detect small changes of capacitance variation due to structure vibration