The Optimal Path of the Chinese Renminbi

This paper provides evidence on the consistency of the determination of the Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER) over time. Especially, we validate coin- tegration between the REER and a set of fundamentals using recent developments in model selection. Error correction model (ECM) path dependence in model se- lection is addressed by using the General-To-Specific (GETS) approach enabling us to obtain empirically constant and encompassing ECM. As inference in finite sam- ples is commonly of concern, statistics' distributional properties for cointegration tests are estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. The final specification of the model is compatible with the natural real exchange rate of Stein (1994). We study the implications of our findings in terms of foreign exchange policy.Exchange Rate, Equilibrium value, GETS, Global Imbalances

Combining Monte Carlo Simulations and Options to Manage the Risk of Real Estate Portfolios

This paper aims to show that the accuracy of real estate portfolio valuations can be improved through the simultaneous use of Monte Carlo simulations and options theory. Our method considers the options embedded in Continental European lease contracts drawn up with tenants who may move before the end of the contract. We combine Monte Carlo simulations for both market prices and rental values with an optional model that takes into account a rational tenant's behavior. We analyze to what extent the options exercised by the tenant significantly affect the owner's income. Our main findings are that simulated cash flows which take account of such options are more reliable that those usually computed by the traditional method of discounted cash flow. Moreover, this approach provides interesting metrics, such as the distribution of cash flows. The originality of this research lies in the possibility of taking the structure of the lease into account. In practice this model could be used by professionals to improve the relevance of their valuations: the output as a distribution of outcomes should be of interest to investors. However, some limitations are inherent to our model: these include the assumption of the rationality of tenant's decisions, and the difficulty of calibrating the model, given the lack of data. After a brief literature review of simulation methods used for real estate valuation, the paper describes the suggested simulation model, its main assumptions, and the incorporation of tenant's decisions regarding break options influencing the cash flows. Finally, using an empirical example, we analyze the sensitivity of the model to various parameters, test its robustness and note some limitations.Monte Carlo Simulations ; Real Estate Portfolio Valuation ; Break options ; Lease Structure ; Options

Vingt ans de travaux scientifiques sur les réseaux et la mobilité ferroviaires

À partir de la Revue d’histoire des chemins de fer et des travaux universitaires soutenus par l’association, les auteurs évaluent la contribution de l’AHICF à la connaissance de l’histoire du chemin de fer à travers les réseaux et la mobilité de 1987 à 2007. Elle procède de trois approches principales : la mise en place et la configuration des réseaux, la politique commerciale des compagnies ferroviaires et l’impact du chemin de fer sur la ville et le développement régional. La mise en place et la configuration des réseaux est abordée quelle que soit leur nature, national principal, régional, chemins de fer secondaires départementaux ou urbains (la RATP), et le réseau à grande vitesse. Les chemins de fer d’outre-mer n’ont pas été laissés de côté. Mais un réseau de transport n’offre pas d’intérêt s’il n’est pas accessible aux voyageurs ou aux marchandises, c’est pourquoi le vaste thème des rapports entre la gare et la ville a fait l’objet de nombreux travaux. Quant aux rapports entre la mobilité et les territoires, ils impliquent en premier lieu l’étude de la réalité des trafics, de marchandises comme de voyageurs, et les politiques commerciales des compagnies de chemins de fer. Des recherches monographiques ont montré comment et combien le chemin de fer a largement contribué au développement régional. L’évolution dans le temps du cadre économique et politique a pour effet de modifier la configuration des réseaux, le plus souvent dans le sens de la contraction. Ce processus général a été analysé au niveau national à travers la coordination des transports dans les années 1930, et par des études de cas régionales. Pour l’avenir, les auteurs montrent quelles sont les lacunes à combler et tracent des pistes de recherche nouvelles.Referencing the Revue d’histoire des chemins de fer and thesis research supported by the association, the authors evaluate the AHICF’s contribution to knowledge of railway history through its networks and mobility from 1987 to 2007. Findings are based on three main approaches: the installation and configuration of networks, the railway companies’ trade policies, and the railway’s impact on towns and regional development. The installation and configuration of networks are considered regardless of their status, be it major national, regional, secondary departmental or urban (RATP) lines, or the high-speed network. French colonial railway lines overseas are also taken into account. But a transportation network is only useful in relation to its accessibility to travelers and merchandise, which explains why the broad topic of the relationship between railway station and town has been the subject of numerous studies. Relationships between mobility and different territories pre-suppose first of all the study of the realities of railway traffic, the circulation of merchandise as well as travelers, and the railway companies’ trade policies. Research monographs have demonstrated how and to what extent the railway has significantly contributed to regional development. The historical development of the economic and political setting has contributed to modifying network configuration, most often curtailing its size. This general process has been studied at the national level through the coordination of transportation in the 1930s and studies of regional cases. The authors indicate areas that will require further research as well as outline avenues for new research

The Optimal Path of the Chinese Renminbi

This paper provides evidence on the consistency of the determination of the Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER) over time. Especially, we validate coin- tegration between the REER and a set of fundamentals using recent developments in model selection. Error correction model (ECM) path dependence in model se- lection is addressed by using the General-To-Specific (GETS) approach enabling us to obtain empirically constant and encompassing ECM. As inference in finite sam- ples is commonly of concern, statistics' distributional properties for cointegration tests are estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. The final specification of the model is compatible with the natural real exchange rate of Stein (1994). We study the implications of our findings in terms of foreign exchange policy

The Optimal Path of the Chinese Renminbi

This paper provides evidence on the consistency of the determination of the Chinese real effective exchange rate (REER) over time. Especially, we validate coin- tegration between the REER and a set of fundamentals using recent developments in model selection. Error correction model (ECM) path dependence in model se- lection is addressed by using the General-To-Specific (GETS) approach enabling us to obtain empirically constant and encompassing ECM. As inference in finite sam- ples is commonly of concern, statistics' distributional properties for cointegration tests are estimated by Monte Carlo simulations. The final specification of the model is compatible with the natural real exchange rate of Stein (1994). We study the implications of our findings in terms of foreign exchange policy

Territoires et grandes vitesses en Europe

Ce débat entre Etienne Auphan, professeur émérite à l’université de Paris-Sorbonne et Michel Walrave, directeur général honoraire de l’Union internationale des chemins de fer, animé par Gabriel Dupuy, professeur à l’université de Paris I – Panthéon-Sorbonne, met en perspective les interventions précédentes, tant sur le bilan des vingt ans d’études menées par l’AHICF que sur les expériences de pays étrangers dans le domaine de la grande vitesse ferroviaire. La première question posée par G. Dupuy est celle de l’adaptation d’un système de grande vitesse ferroviaire à un territoire donné, à travers les exemples précédemment développés. M. Walrave commente les différences entre réseaux à grande vitesse français, coréen et espagnol. E. Auphan pense pour sa part que le modèle français de réseau à grande vitesse a été conçu dans le cadre d’un territoire déterminé et qu’on ne peut pas l’en séparer. Son adaptation à d’autres territoires est donc la question qui reste posée et qui n’a sans doute pas été suffisamment prise en compte lors de l’exportation de la technologie française. La deuxième question posée est celle de l’interconnexion au sein des réseaux ferroviaires à grande vitesse par des gares de passage de leurs trains dans le cœur de la ville, comme à Madrid et à Barcelone, par opposition avec les choix français d’interconnexion autour de Paris. M. Walrave remarque que ce choix assure la complémentarité entre transport aérien et transport ferroviaire à Roissy - Charles-de-Gaulle. Pour E. Auphan, ce contournement de l’Île-de-France est ambigu car, résultat de la conjonction de divers intérêts (aéroport, Eurodisney…), l’interconnexion donne à la fois la possibilité d’assurer des relations de province à province transversales et la desserte périphérique des pôles d’activité parisiens, renforçant donc leur concentration.La troisième question est celle de la spécialisation des réseaux à grande vitesse pour les trafics de marchandises et de voyageurs, différente selon les pays. Pour M. Walrave, le choix français de la spécialisation des trafics s’est imposé en Europe avec raison, en particulier en France pour les lignes radiales pour des raisons de tracé et de densité des circulations. En revanche, seule une analyse économique rigoureuse pourra déterminer les avantages et les inconvénients des deux solutions pour les lignes à venir. E. Auphan met en valeur les problèmes que cause l’acheminement du trafic fret, en particulier dans les agglomérations, et qui contredisent l’argument selon lequel la spécialisation des lignes nouvelles à grande vitesse pour les voyageurs permet de dégager des sillons sur le réseau classique pour le fret.La réaction de M. Walrave, en tant que témoin, au bilan des travaux de l’AHICF et à son programme de recherche clôt le débat.This debate between Etienne Auphan, professor emeritus at the University of Paris-Sorbonne and Michel Walrave, honorary general manager of the Union i nternationale des chemins de fer, moderated by Gabriel Dupuy, professor at the university of Paris I Panthéon-Sorbonne, puts the preceding papers into a critical perspective, in relation to an assessment of the past twenty years of studies led by the AHICF as well in connection with the experiences of foreign countries in the field of high-speed railways. G. Dupuy’s first question concerned the adaptation of a high-speed railway to a specific territory, through previously developed examples. Mr. Walrave commented on the differences between French, Korean, and Spanish high-speed networks. E. Auphan was of the mind that the model of the French high-speed network was conceived in the context of a specific territory and cannot be considered separately. Its adaptability to other areas remains in question and has definitely not been taken sufficiently into account when French technology has been exported. The second question concerns the interconnection of trains at the core of high-speed railway networks via transit stations in the center of a city, as in Madrid and Barcelona, versus the French choice of locating interconnections around rather than in Paris. Mr. Walrave observed that this choice ensures the complementarity of air and rail transportation at Roissy-Charles-de-Gaulle. The bypass through the ÎIe-de-France is multifaceted for E. Auphan, since the interconnection, which is the result of the intersection of various points of interest (airport and Euro Disney, for instance), creates the possibility both of providing cross-relationships from province to province and servicing the periphery of the poles of Parisian activity, thereby reinforcing their concentration. The third question concerns the specialization of high-speed networks for traffic in merchandise and passengers, which varies from country to country. For Mr. Walrave, the specialization of traffic impressed itself appropriately upon Europe, especially in France with respect to radial lines, for reasons related to routes and density of circulation. E. Auphan emphasized problems caused by the routing of freight traffic, especially in built-up areas, contradicting the argument that the specialization of new high-speed lines for travelers leaves lines in the traditional network free for freight. Mr. Walrave’s reaction as a witness to the assessment of the AHICF’s work and research program ended the debate

The Superconducting Transition in Boron Doped Silicon Films

International audienceWe report on a detailed analysis of the superconducting properties of boron-doped silicon films grown along the 001 direction by gas immersion laser doping. This technique is proved to be a powerful technique to dope silicon in the alloying range 2-10 at.% where superconductivity occurs. The superconducting transitions are sharp and well defined both in resistivity and magnetic susceptibility. The variation of Tc on the boron concentration is in contradiction with a classical exponential dependence on superconducting parameters. Electrical measurements were performed in magnetic field on the sample with cB = 8 at.% (400 laser shots) which has the highest Tc (0.6 K). No hysteresis was found for the transitions in magnetic field, which is characteristic of a type-II superconductor. The corresponding upper critical field was on the order of 1000 G at low temperatures, much smaller than the value previously reported. The temperature dependence of Hc2 is very well reproduced by the linearized Gorkov equations neglecting spin effects in the very dirty limit. These measurements in magnetic field allow an estimation of the electronic mean-free path, the coherence length, and the London penetration depth within a simple two-band free electron model

Evaluation of a virtual agent to train medical students conducting psychiatric interviews for diagnosing major depressive disorders

Background: A psychiatric diagnosis involves the physician's ability to create an empathic interaction with the patient in order to accurately extract semiology (i.e., clinical manifestations). Virtual patients (VPs) can be used to train these skills but need to be evaluated in terms of accuracy, and to be perceived positively by users. Methods: We recruited 35 medical students who interacted in a 35-min psychiatric interview with a VP simulating major depressive disorders. Semiology extraction, verbal and non-verbal empathy were measured objectively during the interaction. The students were then debriefed to collect their experience with the VP. Results: The VP was able to simulate the conduction of a psychiatric interview realistically, and was effective to discriminate students depending on their psychiatric knowledge. Results suggest that students managed to keep an emotional distance during the interview and show the added value of emotion recognition software to measure empathy in psychiatry training. Students provided positive feedback regarding pedagogic usefulness, realism and enjoyment in the interaction. Limitations: Our sample was relatively small. As a first prototype, the measures taken by the VP would need improvement (subtler empathic questions, levels of difficulty). The face-tracking technique might induce errors in detecting non-verbal empathy. Conclusion: This study is the first to simulate a realistic psychiatric interview and to measure both skills needed by future psychiatrists: semiology extraction and empathic communication. Results provide evidence that VPs are acceptable by medical students, and highlight their relevance to complement existing training and evaluation tools in the field of affective disorders.Bordeaux Region Aquitaine Initiative for NeurosciencePhénotypage humain et réalité virtuelleInitiative d'excellence de l'Université de Bordeau

Smartphone-Based Virtual Agents Can Help the General Population Concerned by Sleep Complaints: A Proof-of-Concept Study During COVID-19 Confinement

Background: The COVID-19 crisis induces psychosocial stress and sleep complaints that require early management. KANOPEE is a smartphone-based application, providing an interaction with a virtual agent dedicated to screen and deliver behavioral interventions to fight sleep disorders. This paper describes the feasibility study of this application, during the context of COVID-19 confinement in France. Method: 2,069 users of aged 18 years and over downloaded the app during the inclusion period (between 22 April and 5 May 2020). Users first answered a screening interview based on the insomnia severity index (ISI) that was conducted by the virtual agent. If participants were positive for insomniac complaints (ISI > 14), they could join a two-stage intervention program: a) complete an electronic sleep diary for one week, and b) follow personalized sleep recommendations for 10 days. Measures collected included socio-demographic information, ISI and sleep/wake schedules; and acceptance and trust of the agent.Bordeaux Region Aquitaine Initiative for NeurosciencePhénotypage humain et réalité virtuell

J Med Internet Res

Background: The COVID-19 crisis and consequent confinement restrictions have caused significant psychosocial stress and reports of sleep complaints, which require early management, have increased during recent months. To help individuals concerned about their sleep, we developed a smartphone-based app called KANOPEE that allows users to interact with a virtual agent dedicated to autonomous screening and delivering digital behavioral interventions. Objective: Our objective was to assess the feasibility of this app, in terms of inclusion rate, follow-up rate, perceived trust and acceptance of the virtual agent, and effects of the intervention program, in the context of COVID-19 confinement in France. Methods: The virtual agent is an artificial intelligence program using decision tree architecture and interacting through natural body motion and natural voice. A total of 2069 users aged 18 years and above downloaded the free app during the study period (April 22 to May 5, 2020). These users first completed a screening interview based on the Insomnia Severity Index (ISI) conducted by the virtual agent. If the users were positive for insomnia complaints (ISI score >14), they were eligible to join the 2-stage intervention program: (1) complete an electronic sleep diary for 1 week and (2) follow personalized sleep recommendations for 10 days. We collected and analyzed the following measures: sociodemographic information, ISI scores and sleep/wake schedules, and acceptance and trust of the agent. Results: Approximately 76% (1574/2069) of the app users completed the screening interview with the virtual agent. The virtual agent was well accepted by 27.4% (431/1574) of the users who answered the acceptance and trust questionnaires on its usability, satisfaction, benevolence, and credibility. Of the 773 screened users who reported sleep complaints (ISI score >14), 166 (21.5%) followed Step 1 of the intervention, and only 47 of those (28.3%) followed Step 2. Users who completed Step 1 found that their insomnia complaints (baseline mean ISI score 18.56, mean ISI score after Step 1 15.99; P21) did not respond to either intervention. Conclusions: These preliminary results suggest that the KANOPEE app is a promising solution to screen populations for sleep complaints and that it provides acceptable and practical behavioral advice for individuals reporting moderately severe insomnia.Bordeaux Region Aquitaine Initiative for NeurosciencePhénotypage humain et réalité virtuell