The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?

The recent surge in commodity prices has rekindled interest in their power to predict consumer price inflation. But is this interest warranted? In examining the empirical relationship between commodity prices and consumer price inflation, this article finds that commodities' reputation as useful leading indicators of inflation is actually based more on fable than fact. Testing eight commonly used indexes, the authors conclude that although commodities had some predictive power in the past, the commodity-consumer price connection has broken down in the more recent period. They argue that this shift primarily reflects the diminished role of traditional commodities in U.S. production and the "sterilization" of some inflation signals by offsetting monetary policy actions.Prices ; Consumer price indexes ; Inflation (Finance)

Monetary policy influence on the economy-an empirical analysis

Monetary policy ; Interest rates ; Foreign exchange rates

Tracking the economy with the purchasing managers' index

The purchasing managers' index is a widely watched but virtually untested indicator of manufacturing activity. This article examines how well the index lives up to its billing as a leading indicator. The author also explores whether the index supplies information about the economy beyond that already provided by other indicators.Economic indicators ; Business cycles ; Manufactures ; Statistics ; Forecasting

Forecasting automobile output

Automobile industry and trade

The supply-side consequences of U.S. fiscal policy in the 1980s

Fiscal policy changes in the 1980s had several possible implications for the long-run performance of the U.S. economy. The authors review the impact of tax reductions on saving, investment, and work effort, the implications of increased federal deficits for national saving and private investment, and the effect of shifts in the composition of government spending on public capital formation and on research and development. Using results from the empirical literature, the authors attempt to quantify the effects of these fiscal changes on the nation's economic potential.Fiscal policy ; Economic conditions - United States

Cataclysmic Variables from SDSS II. The Second Year

The first full year of operation following the commissioning year of the Sloan Digital Sky Survey has revealed a wide variety of newly discovered cataclysmic variables. We show the SDSS spectra of forty-two cataclysmic variables observed in 2002, of which thirty-five are new classifications, four are known dwarf novae (CT Hya, RZ Leo, T Leo and BZ UMa), one is a known CV identified from a previous quasar survey (Aqr1) and two are known ROSAT or FIRST discovered CVs (RX J09445+0357, FIRST J102347.6+003841). The SDSS positions, colors and spectra of all forty-two systems are presented. In addition, the results of follow-up studies of several of these objects identify the orbital periods, velocity curves and polarization that provide the system geometry and accretion properties. While most of the SDSS discovered systems are faint (>18th mag) with low accretion rates (as implied from their spectral characteristics), there are also a few bright objects which may have escaped previous surveys due to changes in the mass transfer rate.Comment: Accepted for publication in The Astronomical Journal, Vol. 126, Sep. 2003, 44 pages, 25 figures (now with adjacent captions), AASTeX v5.

Interaction of smoking and obesity susceptibility loci on adolescent BMI: The National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health

Background Adolescence is a sensitive period for weight gain and risky health behaviors, such as smoking. Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified loci contributing to adult body mass index (BMI). Evidence suggests that many of these loci have a larger influence on adolescent BMI. However, few studies have examined interactions between smoking and obesity susceptibility loci on BMI. This study investigates the interaction of current smoking and established BMI SNPs on adolescent BMI. Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent to Adult Health, a nationally-representative, prospective cohort of the US school-based population in grades 7 to 12 (12–20 years of age) in 1994–95 who have been followed into adulthood (Wave II 1996; ages 12–21, Wave III; ages 18–27), we assessed (in 2014) interactions of 40 BMI-related SNPs and smoking status with percent of the CDC/NCHS 2000 median BMI (%MBMI) in European Americans (n = 5075), African Americans (n = 1744) and Hispanic Americans (n = 1294). Results Two SNPs showed nominal significance for interaction (p < 0.05) between smoking and genotype with %MBMI in European Americans (EA) (rs2112347 (POC5): β = 1.98 (0.06, 3.90), p = 0.04 and near rs571312 (MC4R): β 2.15 (−0.03, 4.33) p = 0.05); and one SNP showed a significant interaction effect after stringent correction for multiple testing in Hispanic Americans (HA) (rs1514175 (TNNI3K): β 8.46 (4.32, 12.60), p = 5.9E-05). Stratifying by sex, these interactions suggest a stronger effect in female smokers. Conclusions Our study highlights potentially important sex differences in obesity risk by smoking status in adolescents, with those who may be most likely to initiate smoking (i.e., adolescent females), being at greatest risk for exacerbating genetic obesity susceptibility

Open science in archaeology

No abstract available

Tumor-Immune Signatures of Treatment Resistance to Brentuximab Vedotin with Ipilimumab and/or Nivolumab in Hodgkin Lymphoma

To investigate the cellular and molecular mechanisms associated with targeting CD30-expressing Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) and immune checkpoint modulation induced by combination therapies of CTLA4 and PD1, we leveraged Phase 1/2 multicenter open-label trial NCT01896999 that enrolled patients with refractory or relapsed HL (R/R HL). Using peripheral blood, we assessed soluble proteins, cell composition, T-cell clonality, and tumor antigen-specific antibodies in 54 patients enrolled in the phase 1 component of the trial. NCT01896999 reported high (\u3e75%) overall objective response rates with brentuximab vedotin (BV) in combination with ipilimumab (I) and/or nivolumab (N) in patients with R/R HL. We observed a durable increase in soluble PD1 and plasmacytoid dendritic cells as well as decreases in plasma CCL17, ANGPT2, MMP12, IL13, and CXCL13 in N-containing regimens (BV + N and BV + I + N) compared with BV + I (P \u3c 0.05). Nonresponders and patients with short progression-free survival showed elevated CXCL9, CXCL13, CD5, CCL17, adenosine-deaminase, and MUC16 at baseline or after one treatment cycle and a higher prevalence of NY-ESO-1-specific autoantibodies (P \u3c 0.05). The results suggest a circulating tumor-immune-derived signature of BV ± I ± N treatment resistance that may be useful for patient stratification in combination checkpoint therapy. Significance: Identification of multi-omic immune markers from peripheral blood may help elucidate resistance mechanisms to checkpoint inhibitor and antibody-drug conjugate combinations with potential implications for treatment decisions in relapsed HL

Memory regulatory T cells reside in human skin.

Regulatory T cells (Tregs), which are characterized by expression of the transcription factor Foxp3, are a dynamic and heterogeneous population of cells that control immune responses and prevent autoimmunity. We recently identified a subset of Tregs in murine skin with properties typical of memory cells and defined this population as memory Tregs (mTregs). Due to the importance of these cells in regulating tissue inflammation in mice, we analyzed this cell population in humans and found that almost all Tregs in normal skin had an activated memory phenotype. Compared with mTregs in peripheral blood, cutaneous mTregs had unique cell surface marker expression and cytokine production. In normal human skin, mTregs preferentially localized to hair follicles and were more abundant in skin with high hair density. Sequence comparison of TCRs from conventional memory T helper cells and mTregs isolated from skin revealed little homology between the two cell populations, suggesting that they recognize different antigens. Under steady-state conditions, mTregs were nonmigratory and relatively unresponsive; however, in inflamed skin from psoriasis patients, mTregs expanded, were highly proliferative, and produced low levels of IL-17. Taken together, these results identify a subset of Tregs that stably resides in human skin and suggest that these cells are qualitatively defective in inflammatory skin disease