Commodity prices have risen sharply since 2006. This may benefit developing countries specialized on primary exports, but poverty may increase. Uruguay is a net exporter of primary products and a net importer of oil. With the aim of analyzing the impact of soaring commodity prices and policy options, we apply a CGE model and microsimulations. A rise in food prices has a positive impact on the Uruguayan economy that is partially offset by the increase in oil prices. Even when poorest households’ income rises, their welfare falls because their consumption basket becomes more expensive. Poverty falls but extreme poverty increases. A policy of transfers to the poorest households seems to be the most efficient policy option to compensate poor households.

International Commodity Prices, Poverty Policies, Labor Issues, International Trade, Computable General Equilibrium Model.

Trade Openness and Gender in Uruguay: a CGE Analysis

In this paper we analyze the gender differentiated impacts of trade openness in Uruguay using a gender aware CGE model with endogenous labor supply and a home production function. We simulate complete trade liberalization and an increase in tariffs to the level of 1994. Trade liberalization increases female employment and wages, reducing the gender wage gap. These findings are consistent with Çagatay (2001) and Fofana et al (2003). The effect of trade openness on time distribution of workers is different by skills. Skilled workers, mainly women, reduce time spent in leisure and domestic work increasing labor supply. In contrast, unskilled workers increase leisure time, especially men. Trade openness leads to a more equitable distribution of time spent in domestic work. When there is a more imperfect substitution among genders in the home production function, women reduce more leisure time. The increase in tariff to the level of 1994 has the opposite results.trade openness, gender, general equilibrium model, home production, leisure, wage curve

The Effects of Increasing Openness and Integration to the MERCOSUR on the Uruguayan Labour Market: a CGE Modelling Analysis

Uruguay is a small economy. Its integration into MERCOSUR has increased its exposure to regional macroeconomic instability. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of regional integration on the country's labour market and poverty. We estimated wage differentials between labour categories, finding a 60 percent wage gap between formal and informal workers. A CGE model with an efficiency wage specification for unskilled labour was built, with results showing that regional shocks deeply affect the Uruguayan economy. The consideration of an efficiency wage model is particularly important when shocks lead to a reallocation of resources towards sectors intensive in unskilled labour. A subsidy on formal, unskilled labour could contribute to decrease informality and therefore increase GDP, but this type of policy needs to be carefully implemented because it may have negative effects on investment. Finally, the effects on poverty and income distribution obtained through microsimulations are consistent with the results of the CGE experiments.Uruguay, labour market, general equilibrium model, regional itegration, efficiency wage, microsimulation, poverty

Trade and investment in Latin America and Asia: Lessons from the past and potential perspectives from further integration

CGE Modeling, FTA, trade liberalization,

The effects of increasing openness and integration to the MERCOSUR on the Uruguayan labour market. A CGE modeling analysis

Uruguay is a small economy. Its integration to MERCOSUR has increased the exposure to regional macroeconomic inestability. The aim of this paper is to assess the impact of regional integration on labour market and poverty. We estimated wage differentials between labour categories, finding a 60% wage gap between formal and informal workers. A CGE model with an efficiency wage specification for unskilled labour was built. Results show that regional shocks deeply affect Uruguayan economy. The consideration of efficiency wage model is particularly important when shocks lead to a reallocation of resources towards sectors intensive in unskilled labour. A subsidy on formal, unskilled labour could contribute to decrease informality and therefore increase GDP, but this type of policy need to be carefully implemented, because it may have negative effects on investment. Finally, the effects on poverty and income distribution obtained through microsimulations are consistent with the results of the CGE experiments.Uruguay, labour market, general equilibrium model, regional integration, efficiency wage, microsimulation, poverty

Assessing the Impact of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis in Developing Countries: the Case of Uruguay

This paper uses a static computable general equilibrium model (CGE) linked to a microsimulation model to analyze how the global crisis and some adopted policy responses may have affected the Uruguayan economy. The focus is on the trade channel and foreign capital flows, since they are the most important mechanisms through which the global crisis affected the Uruguayan economy. The crisis had a strong impact on exports and fixed investment. Poorest households would be the most affected, as they face a stronger reduction in real wages and a rise in unemployment. We find a negative impact on extreme poverty, but not on moderate poverty, as households near the poverty line would benefit from the fall in some consumer prices. A policy based in increasing current public consumption does moderately counteract some negative impacts of the crisis, but benefits mainly skilled workers, and does not act directly towards the most affected.Global economic crisis, trade shock, fiscal response, Uruguay, unemployment

Opinión pública y Mercosur : conocimiento y apoyo de los uruguayos al proceso de integración regional

Artículo originalRecientemente, la cuestión de la democracia y el rol de la ciudadanía en relación a los procesos de integración regional han adquirido gran importancia. Este trabajo estudia la relación entre la opinión pública y MERCOSUR. Específicamente, se estudia el conocimiento que presentan los ciudadanos uruguayos acerca del proceso de integración regional, y también se evalúa la probabilidad de que un ciudadano apoye al MERCOSUR y vote a su favor en un posible referéndum. Para esto se cuenta con información de la encuesta ISSP llevada a cabo en el año 2004 en Uruguay. Se concluye que existen fallas en los sistemas de información hacia la ciudadanía, y que el bajo conocimiento lleva a un menor apoyo al proceso de integración

Estudios de competitividad sectoriales. Industria manufacturera

The aim of this study is to analyse competitiveness in textiles, garments and design, and pharmaceutical industry in Uruguay. In textiles, wool and leather industries are expected in the medium run to maintain their competitive capacity, increasing the importance of design to create products with more aggregate value. Firms in Uruguay that present important advantages will continue to grow, even when growth expectations are moderate, specially for big firms. Public policies could contribute to maintain in this sector low production costs. In garments and design industries it can be expected a recovery in local and regional markets, although there might be some restrictions to this growth: competition with MERCOSUR partners, dynamism in informal sector, and restrictions from factor supply. Competition with global rivals will continue to rise, that together with the quota elimination in destination markets and with the quality improvement of rivals’ products, will constitute a major threaten to our industry. For that reason, it can be expected a moderate general growth in the sector, with some star products. In the pharmaceutical industry, the local market presents slow growth and decreasing prices. Those laboratories that intend to expand towards exports are planning some investments to widen their capacity, but as their competitive area is the one of “generics” they do not consider developing new products. Instead, they tend to assure quality and access requirements from sanitary authorities in buying countries. Future development of this industry in the medium run depends on several complex factors. Finally, this study presents the economic policies that affect our interest sectors.competitiveness, competitive advantages, pharmaceutics, textiles, garments, industrial policy.

Nuevos acuerdos comerciales en el Pacífico : oportunidades y amenazas para Uruguay

I. Estrategia de negociación comercial en la nueva realidad internacional: caso TPP y AP.- II. Acuerdos comerciales preferenciales de Asia Pacífico en relación a América Latina: el caso del TPP.- III. Análisis de impacto del TPP y la AP. Un análisis de equilibrio general computable.- IV. Acceso al mercado en bienes en el TPP: efectos en la inserción exportadora de Urugua

Effectiveness of intensive group and individual interventions for smoking cessation in primary health care settings: a randomized trial

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Objectives</p> <p>Primary: To compare the effectiveness of intensive group and individual interventions for smoking cessation in a primary health care setting; secondary: to identify the variables associated with smoking cessation.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Three-pronged clinical trial with randomisation at the individual level. We performed the following: an intensive individual intervention (III), an intensive group intervention (IGI) and a minimal intervention (MI). Included in the study were smokers who were prepared to quit smoking. Excluded from the study were individuals aged less than 18 years or with severe mental conditions or terminal illnesses. The outcome measure was continued abstinence at 12 months confirmed through CO-oximetry (CO). The analysis was based on intention to treat.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In total, 287 smokers were recruited: 81 in the III, 111 in the IGI, and 95 in the MI. Continued abstinence at 12 months confirmed through CO was 7.4% in the III, 5.4% in the IGI, and 1% in the MI. No significant differences were noted between III and MI on the one hand, and between IGI and MI on the other [RR 7.04 (0.9-7.2) and RR 5.1 (0.6-41.9), respectively]. No differences were noted between IGI and III [RR 0.7 (0.2-2.2)]. In multivariate analysis, only overall visit length showed a statistically significant association with smoking cessation.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The effectiveness of intensive smoking interventions in this study was lower than expected. No statistically significant differences were found between the results of individual and group interventions.</p> <p>Trial registration number</p> <p>ISRCTN32323770</p