Mean curvature and compactification of surfaces in a negatively curved Cartan-Hadamard manifold

We state and prove a Chern-Osserman-type inequality in terms of the volume growth for complete surfaces with controlled mean curvature properly immersed in a Cartan-Hadamard manifold $N$ with sectional curvatures bounded from above by a negative quantity $K_{N}\leq b<0$Comment: 24 page

Government deficit sustainability, and monetary versus fiscal dominance: The case of Spain, 1850-2000

In this paper, we provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850-2000, and examine the role played by monetary and fiscal dominance in order to get fiscal solvency. The longer than usual span of the data would allow us to obtain some more robust results on the fulfilling of the intertemporal budget constraint than in most of previous analyses. First, we analyze the relationship between primary surplus and debt, following the recent critique of Bohn (2007), and investigate the possibility of structural changes occurring along the period by means of the new approach of Kejriwal and Perron (2008). The analysis is complemented in two directions: (i) performing Granger-causality tests in order to distinguish properly between a fiscal dominant and a monetary dominant regime; and (ii) presenting the impulse-response functions of debt to innovations in the primary surplus, through the approach of Canzoneri, Cumby and Diba (2001).Fiscal policy, Sustainability, Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Monetary dominance, Fiscal dominance.

- CAMBIO DE RÉGIMEN Y SOSTENIBILIDAD A LARGO PLAZO DE LA POLÍTICA FISCAL: EL CASO DE ESPAÑA

In this paper, the Spanish fiscal policy sustainability is tested for the period 1964-1996. The theoretical framework used in this paper draws from Quintos (1995) where a distinction between weak and strong conditions for deficit sustainability is pointed out. From an empirical point of view, new cointegration techniques allowing for structural breaks in the long-run relationships as well as in the cointegration parameters are implemented in order to reach a deeper insight. En este trabajo se contrasta la sostenibilidad de la política fiscal en la economía española para el periodo 1964-1996 utilizando el planteamiento teórico propuesto en Quintos (1995). Desde el punto de vista empírico, la novedad del estudio radica en la utilización de nuevas técnicas de cointegración que recogen la posibilidad de cambios estructurales, tanto en las relaciones de largo plazo como en los parámetros de cointegración.sostenibilidad, política fiscal, cointegración, cambio de régimen sustainability, fiscal policy, cointegration, regimen shifts.

Is the Budget Deficit Sustainable when Fiscal Policy is nonlinear? The Case of Spain, 1961-2001

In this paper we re-examine the long-run sustainability of budget deficits, when fiscal policy is conducted as a nonlinear process. Our empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration that consider the possibility of a nonlinear relationship between government revenues and expenditures. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain, a country that has recently accomplished an important fiscal consolidation. Overall, our results suggest the presence of significant nonlinear effects in Spanish fiscal policy, so that fiscal authorities would cut deficits only if they are “large”, and assuring their long-run sustainability.Fiscal policy, Sustainability, Threshold cointegration.

Is the Fisher Effect Nonlinear? Some Evidence for Spain, 1963-2002

In this paper we examine the role of nonlinearities in the relationship between nominal interest rates and inflation, in order to shed some additional light on the mostly unfavorable evidence on the presence of a full Fisher effect. The analysis is applied to the case of Spain for the period 1963-2002, which allows us to re-examine and extend previous results on the subject. The empirical methodology makes use of recent developments on threshold cointegration, so that cointegration between a pair of variables should be expected once a certain threshold was reached.Interest rate, Fisher effect, Threshold cointegration, nonlinearity.

Deficit sustainability and inflation in EMU: An analysis from the fiscal theory of the price level

Price determination theory typically focuses on monetary plicy, while the role of fiscal policy is ussually neglected. From a different point of view, the Fiscal Theory of Price Level takes into account monetary and fiscal policy interactions and assumes that fiscal policy may determine the price level, even if monetary authorities pursue an inflation targeting strategy. In this paper we try to test empirically whether the time path of the government budget in EMU countries would have affected price level determination. Our results point to the sustainability of fiscal policy in all the EMU countries but Finland, although no firm conclusions can be drawn about the prevalence of either monetary or fiscal dominance.Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, monetary and fiscal dominance, central bank independence, fiscal solvency, inflation

Long-run neutrality of money and inflation in Spanish economy, 1830-1998

33 p.In this article, we test a classical model of ináation with rational expectations for the case of Spain during the period 1830ñ1998. The principal testable implication is that money growth and ináation are cointegrated ruling out speculative bubbles. First, to detect episodes of potential explosive behaviour in the Spanish ináation rate, we use the recursive unit root tests for explosiveness recently proposed by Phillips, Wu, and Yu (2011), and Phillips, Shi, and Yu (2015a,b). Second, we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a good empirical description of the classical model of ináation for Spain over this long period. Our methodology is based on the instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests developed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kejriwal (2008)

The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974-2010

In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiples structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the term structure model of interest rates. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2010) as well as the cointegration test in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kejriwal (2008) developed to allow for multiple breaks under the null hypothesis of cointegration.Term structure of interest rates; Cointegration; Multiple Structural Breaks.

On the sustainability of government deficits: some long-term evidence for Spain, 1850-2000

We provide a test of the sustainability of the Spanish government deficit over the period 1850-2000, from the estimation of a cointegration relationship between government expenditures and revenues derived from the intertemporal budget constraint. The longer than usual span of the data allows us to obtain more robust results on the fulfilment of the intertemporal budget constraint than most of the previous analyses. Two additional robustness checks are provided. First, we investigate the possibility of structural changes occurring along the period analyzed, using the new approach of Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) to testing for multiple structural changes in cointegrated regression models. Second, we investigate whether the behaviour of fiscal authorities has been non-linear, by means of the procedure of Hansen and Seo (2002) based on a threshold cointegration model. Our results show that (i) the government deficit has been strongly sustainable in the long run, (ii) no evidence is found on any significant structural break throughout the whole period, and (iii) fiscal sustainability has been attained due to the non-linear behaviour of fiscal authorities, which have only acted on the budget deficit when it has exceeded around 4.5% of GDP.fiscal policy, sustainability, structural change, threshold cointegration, nonlinearity