Statistical representation of mountain shading

International audienceShadows cast by the mountains themselves have a strong influence on the surface energy balance of mountainous regions. If the influence of shadows is to be included on sub-grid scales in a surface energy balance model, a statistical representation has to be used. Slope components calculated from digital elevation models of areas in North Wales and the French Alps are found to have double-exponential distributions. From this result, expressions are developed for the fractions of the areas that will be either self-shaded or shaded by remote topography as functions of solar elevation and time of day. These expressions are in good agreement with results from a terrain shading model. Keywords: solar radiation, topography, surface energy balance, statistical parameterisatio

Modelled sensitivity of the snow regime to topography, shrub fraction and shrub height

Recent studies show that shrubs are colonizing higher latitudes and altitudes in the Arctic. Shrubs affect the wind transport, accumulation and melt of snow, but there have been few sensitivity studies of how shrub expansion might affect snowmelt rates and timing. Here, a three-source energy balance model (3SOM), which calculates vertical and horizontal energy fluxes – thus allowing within-cell advection – between the atmosphere, snow, snow-free ground and vegetation, is introduced. The three-source structure was specifically adopted to investigate shrub–tundra processes associated with patchy snow cover that single- or two-source models fail to address. The ability of the model to simulate the snow regime of an upland tundra valley is evaluated; a blowing snow transport and sublimation model is used to simulate premelt snow distributions and 3SOM is used to simulate melt. Some success at simulating turbulent fluxes in point simulations and broad spatial pattern in distributed runs is shown even if the lack of advection between cells causes melt rates to be underestimated. The models are then used to investigate the sensitivity of the snow regime in the valley to varying shrub cover and topography. Results show that, for domain average shrub fractional cover ≤0.4, topography dominates the pre- and early melt energy budget but has little influence for higher shrub cover. The increase in domain average sensible heat fluxes and net radiation with increasing shrub cover is more marked without topography where shrubs introduce wind-induced spatial variability of snow and snow-free patches. As snowmelt evolves, differences in the energy budget between simulations with and without topography remain relatively constant and are independent of shrub cover. These results suggest that, to avoid overestimating the effect of shrub expansion on the energy budget of the Arctic, future large-scale investigations should consider wind redistribution of snow, shrub bending and emergence, and sub-grid topography as they affect the variability of snow cover

Airmass analysis of the processes driving the progression of the Indian summer monsoon

The Indian summer monsoon is a vital source of water and a cause of severe impacts for more than a billion people in the Indian subcontinent. The INCOMPASS project investigates the mechanisms driving its onset and progression through an observational field campaign supplemented by high‐resolution numerical simulations for the 2016 season using UK Met Office models. A 4.4 km resolution convection‐permitting limited‐area model simulation (driven at its boundaries by a daily‐initialised global model) is used in this study, and verified against observations, along with short‐lead‐time operational global forecasts. These data show that the monsoon progression towards northwest India in June 2016 is a non‐steady process, modulated by the interaction between moist low‐level southwesterly flow from the Arabian Sea and a northwesterly incursion of descending dry air from western and central Asia. The location and extent of these two flows are closely linked to midlatitude dynamics, through the southward propagation of potential vorticity streamers and the associated formation of cyclonic circulations in the region where the two airmasses interact. Particular focus is devoted to the use of Lagrangian trajectories to characterise the evolution of the airstreams and complement the Eulerian monsoon progression analysis. The trajectories confirm that the interaction of the two airstreams is a primary driver of the general moistening of the troposphere associated with monsoon progression. They also indicate the occurrence of local diabatic processes along the airstreams, such as turbulent mixing and local evaporation from the Arabian Sea, in addition to moisture transport from remote sources. In summary, this combined Eulerian–Lagrangian analysis reveals the non‐steady nature of monsoon progression towards northwest India. This process is driven by the interaction of different airmasses and influenced by a synergy of factors on a variety of scales, such as midlatitude dynamics, transient weather systems and local diabatic processes

A coupled dual source GCM SVAT

International audienceThe single source SVAT scheme (MOSES) used in the UK Meteorological Office GCM is modified to include two sources. The performances of the original and the new scheme are compared with minimal calibration against data from sparse vegetation taken from the HAPEX-Sahel experiment. Both schemes perform well; in particular the dual source SVAT successfully simulates the different temperatures of the sparse vegetation and soil. It is demonstrated that the two sources need to be coupled, rather than acting independently, for an accurate result. Some components of the single and dual source schemes are driven offline by measured surface temperature. In this case a dual source SVAT scheme performs significantly better than a single source scheme

Measurements and modelling of snowmelt and turbulent heat fluxes over shrub tundra

Measurements of snowmelt and turbulent heat fluxes were made during the snowmelt periods of two years at two neighbouring tundra sites in the Yukon, one in a sheltered location with tall shrubs exposed above deep snow and the other in an exposed location with dwarf shrubs covered by shallow snow. The snow was about twice as deep in the valley as on the plateau at the end of each winter and melted out about 10 days later. The site with buried vegetation showed a transition from air-to-surface heat transfers to surface-to-air heat transfers as bare ground became exposed during snowmelt, but there were daytime transfers of heat from the surface to the air at the site with exposed vegetation even while snow remained on the ground. A model calculating separate energy balances for snow and exposed vegetation, driven with meteorological data from the sites, is found to be able to reproduce these behaviours. Averaged over 30-day periods the model gives about 8 Wm<sup>−2</sup> more sensible heat flux to the atmosphere for the valley site than for the plateau site. Sensitivity of simulated fluxes to model parameters describing vegetation cover and density is investigated

Vegetation and Topographic Control of Wind-blown Snow Distributions in Distributed and Aggregated Simulations for an Arctic Tundra Basin

In the Pacific Northwest (PNW), concern about the impacts of climate and land cover change on water resources and flood-generating processes emphasizes the need for a mechanistic understanding of the interactions between forest canopies and hydrologic processes. Detailed measurements during the 1999 and 2000 hydrologic years were used to modify the Simultaneous Heat and Water (SHAW) model for application in forested systems. Major changes to the model include improved representation of rainfall interception and stomatal conductance dynamics. The model was developed for the 1999 hydrologic year and tested for the 2000 hydrologic year without modification of the site parameters. The model effectively simulated throughfall, soil water content profiles, and shallow soil temperatures for both years. The largest discrepancies between soil moisture and temperature were observed during periods of discontinuous snow cover due to spatial variability that was not explicitly simulated by the model. Soil warming at bare locations was delayed until most of the snow cover ablated because of the large heat sink associated with the residual snow patches. During the summer, simulated transpiration decreased from a maximum monthly mean of 2.2 mm day⁻¹ in July to 1.3 mm day⁻¹ in September as a result of decreasing soil moisture and declining net radiation. The results indicate that a relatively simple representation of the vegetation canopy can accurately simulate seasonal hydrologic fluxes in this environment, except during periods of discontinuous snow cover

Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways

Future land use change (LUC) is an important component of the IPCC representative concentration pathways (RCPs), but in these scenarios' radiative forcing targets the climate impact of LUC only includes greenhouse gases. However, climate effects due to physical changes of the land surface can be as large. Here we show the critical importance of including non-carbon impacts of LUC when considering the RCPs. Using an ensemble of climate model simulations with and without LUC, we show that the net climate effect is very different from the carbon-only effect. Despite opposite signs of LUC, all the RCPs assessed here have a small net warming from LUC because of varying biogeophysical effects, and in RCP4.5 the warming is outside of the expected variability. The afforestation in RCP4.5 decreases surface albedo, making the net global temperature anomaly over land around five times larger than RCPs 2.6 and 8.5, for around twice the amount of LUC. Consequent changes to circulation in RCP4.5 in turn reduce Arctic sea ice cover. The small net positive temperature effect from LUC could make RCP4.5's universal carbon tax, which incentivizes retaining and growing forest, counter productive with respect to climate. However, there are spatial differences in the balance of impacts, and potential climate gains would need to be assessed against other environmental aims

Effects of needleleaf forest cover on radiation and snowmelt dynamics in the Canadian Rocky Mountains

Abstract: Radiation is the main energy source for snowpack warming and melt in mountain needleleaf forests, and runoff from these forests is the main contributor to spring river flows in western North America. Utilizing extensive field obser-vations, the effect of needleleaf forest cover on radiation and snowmelt timing was quantified at pine and spruce forest sites and nearby clearings of varying slope and aspect in an eastern Canadian Rocky Mountain headwater basin. Compared with open clearing sites, shortwave radiation was much reduced under forest cover, resulting in smaller differences in melt timing between forested slopes relative to open slopes with different aspects. In contrast, longwave radiation to snow was substantially enhanced under forest cover, especially at the dense spruce forest sites where longwave radiation dominated total energy for snowmelt. In both pine and spruce environments, forest cover acted to substantially reduce total radiation to snow and delay snowmelt timing on south-facing slopes while increasing total radiation and advancing snowmelt timing on north-facing slopes. Results strongly suggest that impacts on radiation to snow and snowmelt timing from changes in mountain forest cover will depend much on the slope and aspect at which changes occur. Résume ́ : Le rayonnement est la principale source d’énergie qui réchauffe et fait fondre la couche de neige dans les forêts alpines de conifères ou ̀ le ruissellement contribue dans une large mesure au débit printanier des rivières dans l’ouest de l’Amérique du Nord. A ` l’aide de nombreuses observations sur le terrain, dans un bassin de tête de la partie est des monta-gnes Rocheuses canadiennes, l’effet du couvert de forêt de conifères sur le rayonnement et sur le moment de la fonte d