Phenological shifts of abiotic events, producers and consumers across a continent

Ongoing climate change can shift organism phenology in ways that vary depending on species, habitats and climate factors studied. To probe for large-scale patterns in associated phenological change, we use 70,709 observations from six decades of systematic monitoring across the former Union of Soviet Socialist Republics. Among 110 phenological events related to plants, birds, insects, amphibians and fungi, we find a mosaic of change, defying simple predictions of earlier springs, later autumns and stronger changes at higher latitudes and elevations. Site mean temperature emerged as a strong predictor of local phenology, but the magnitude and direction of change varied with trophic level and the relative timing of an event. Beyond temperature-associated variation, we uncover high variation among both sites and years, with some sites being characterized by disproportionately long seasons and others by short ones. Our findings emphasize concerns regarding ecosystem integrity and highlight the difficulty of predicting climate change outcomes. The authors use systematic monitoring across the former USSR to investigate phenological changes across taxa. The long-term mean temperature of a site emerged as a strong predictor of phenological change, with further imprints of trophic level, event timing, site, year and biotic interactions.Peer reviewe

Comparative analysis of the beetle fauna (Coleoptera: Carabidae) of small steppe plots in the forest-steppe zone

The fauna and abundance of Carabidae inhabiting small steppe plots in the forest-steppe zone of European Russia were analysed. In total, 14 such plots (biotopes) were studied, they were grouped by vegetation type into two groups: meadow steppe (5 plots) and calcareous steppe (9 plots). A total of 104 species of beetles from 6 subfamilies were collected. In meadow steppe, 91 species of beetle species were found, in calcareous steppe, 64 species were collected. Species richness was significantly higher in some meadow steppe plots (14-67 species) than in calcareous steppe plots (4-27 species). Numerical abundance of beetles was also higher in meadow steppe. Nine indicator species for calcareous steppe and no indicator species for calcareous steppe were identified. The structure of beetle dominance was analysed for individual biotopes. Beetle populations are analysed by life forms and life cycle types. NMDS scaling results are presented, demonstrating significant diversity of species composition and structure both in meadow steppe and calcareous steppe

Differences in spatial versus temporal reaction norms for spring and autumn phenological events

For species to stay temporally tuned to their environment, they use cues such as the accumulation of degree-days. The relationships between the timing of a phenological event in a population and its environmental cue can be described by a population-level reaction norm. Variation in reaction norms along environmental gradients may either intensify the environmental effects on timing (cogradient variation) or attenuate the effects (countergradient variation). To resolve spatial and seasonal variation in species' response, we use a unique dataset of 91 taxa and 178 phenological events observed across a network of 472 monitoring sites, spread across the nations of the former Soviet Union. We show that compared to local rates of advancement of phenological events with the advancement of temperature-related cues (i.e., variation within site over years), spatial variation in reaction norms tend to accentuate responses in spring (cogradient variation) and attenuate them in autumn (countergradient variation). As a result, among-population variation in the timing of events is greater in spring and less in autumn than if all populations followed the same reaction norm regardless of location. Despite such signs of local adaptation, overall phenotypic plasticity was not sufficient for phenological events to keep exact pace with their cues-the earlier the year, the more did the timing of the phenological event lag behind the timing of the cue. Overall, these patterns suggest that differences in the spatial versus temporal reaction norms will affect species' response to climate change in opposite ways in spring and autumn