Ergebnisse der 23. Jahrestagung der Internationalen Ostsee-Fischereikommission (IBSFC) vom 08.-12.09.1997 und Ausblick

Die Tagung fand in Warschau, dem Sitz des Sekretariats der IBSFC, statt. Arbeitsebenen der Tagung sind Plenarsitzungen und Sitzungen der beiden Ständigen Komitees „Regulierungsmaßnahmen“ und „Finanzen“. Die Plenarsitzungen und Sitzungen des Ständigen Komitees für Regulierungsmaßnahmen mit insgesamt 34 Tagungsordnungspunkten waren geprägt von der Analyse der nationalen Fischereien im Basiszeitraum, d.h. von der Ausnutzung der nationalen Quoten für 1996 und z.T. 1997, den Beratungen zum Fischereimanagement für 1998, aber auch vom Vorsorgeansatz im Fischereimanagement und den Auswirkungen der sogenannten Rio-Konferenz (UN-Konferenz über Umwelt und Entwicklung, Rio de Janeiro 1992) für den Ostseeraum

A multi-block infrastructure for three-dimensional time-dependent numerical relativity

We describe a generic infrastructure for time evolution simulations in numerical relativity using multiple grid patches. After a motivation of this approach, we discuss the relative advantages of global and patch-local tensor bases. We describe both our multi-patch infrastructure and our time evolution scheme, and comment on adaptive time integrators and parallelisation. We also describe various patch system topologies that provide spherical outer and/or multiple inner boundaries. We employ penalty inter-patch boundary conditions, and we demonstrate the stability and accuracy of our three-dimensional implementation. We solve both a scalar wave equation on a stationary rotating black hole background and the full Einstein equations. For the scalar wave equation, we compare the effects of global and patch-local tensor bases, different finite differencing operators, and the effect of artificial dissipation onto stability and accuracy. We show that multi-patch systems can directly compete with the so-called fixed mesh refinement approach; however, one can also combine both. For the Einstein equations, we show that using multiple grid patches with penalty boundary conditions leads to a robustly stable system. We also show long-term stable and accurate evolutions of a one-dimensional non-linear gauge wave. Finally, we evolve weak gravitational waves in three dimensions and extract accurate waveforms, taking advantage of the spherical shape of our grid lines.Comment: 18 pages. Some clarifications added, figure layout improve

Institutional change in search of the market: The case of Slovenia

Six main characteristics of an economic order are discussed and empirically evaluated for the case of Slovenia. All of them pertain to the institutional setting ab urbe condita; they comprise the legal and jurisdictional situation, the role of private property, the institutionalised strive at competition among firms and individuals, the liberty of markets, the solution of the big assignment problem, and the approach to foreign-trade relations. All six aspects impinge upon the conditions which confront investors in material and in human capital in Slovenia. The analysis shows that Slovenia has had, for three years now, by and large the same problems that other countries in transition had. For example, it still has, among others, tight regulations regarding foreign exchange transactions, and a highly socialist property system burdened with too complicated procedures of privatisation. The authors conclude that in Slovenia, as in the other formerly socialist economies, transformation should first and foremost aim at being coherent. Secondly, first things should come first; the first thing would be to privatise. With a proper approach of institutional reforms there should be no barrier to achieving two-digit rates of real growth, just like Germany had after transition into a market economy in 1949.

Disequilibrium Macroeconomic Dynamics, Income Distribution and Wage-Price Phillips Curves

The authors of this paper formulate a disequilibrium AS-AD model based on sticky wages and prices, perfect foresight of current inflation rates and adaptive expectations concerning the inflation climate in which the economy operates. The model consists of a wage and a price Phillips curves, a dynamic IS curve as well as a dynamic employment adjustment equation and a Taylor-rule-type interest rate law of motion. Through instrumental variables GMM system estimation with aggregate time series data for the U.S. and the euro area economies, the authors obtain structural parameter estimates which support the specification of their theoretical model and show the importance of the inflationary climate, as well as of the Blanchard-Katz error correction terms, and indirectly of income distribution, in the dynamics of wage and price inflation in the U.S. and the euro area economies.AS-AD disequilibrium, wage and price Phillips curves, real wage adjustment

COVID-19 and the difficulty of inferring epidemiological parameters from clinical data

Knowing the infection fatality ratio (IFR) is of crucial importance for evidence-based epidemic management: for immediate planning; for balancing the life years saved against the life years lost due to the consequences of management; and for evaluating the ethical issues associated with the tacit willingness to pay substantially more for life years lost to the epidemic, than for those to other diseases. Against this background Verity et al. (2020, Lancet Infections Diseases) have rapidly assembled case data and used statistical modelling to infer the IFR for COVID-19. We have attempted an in-depth statistical review of their approach, to identify to what extent the data are sufficiently informative about the IFR to play a greater role than the modelling assumptions, and have tried to identify those assumptions that appear to play a key role. Given the difficulties with other data sources, we provide a crude alternative analysis based on the Diamond Princess Cruise ship data and case data from China, and argue that, given the data problems, modelling of clinical data to obtain the IFR can only be a stop-gap measure. What is needed is near direct measurement of epidemic size by PCR and/or antibody testing of random samples of the at risk population.Comment: Version accepted by the Lancet Infectious Diseases. See previous version for less terse presentatio

Deutsche und internationale Dorschfischerei in der Ostsee im Jahr 1998

In 1998 the longtime series of the standardized bottom trawl surveys conducted in the western Baltic (ICES Sub-division (SD) 22 and 24 since 1978) during spring and autumn and also in the eastern Baltic (ICES Sub-division since 1993) during spring were continued. The results of the surveys as well as those of a sampling programme carried out on board of commercial cutters (mainly financed by an EU study project) and on the market, the investigation of the survival rate of the discards, and the landing statistics are the basis of the analysis of the German and international cod fishery in 1998. The German cod fishery was concentrated on the ICES SD 22 and 24 (total landings 9722 t). The total landings from the fishing grounds east off Bornholm, the traditional German fishing ground, amounted only to about 1270 t. The German cod quota was utilized at 64 %. The fishery in the ICES SD 22 and 24 was characterized by a discard rate of undersized cod of 13 %. That corresponds to about 7.3 million specimens of 0-group, one- and two-years-old youngfish, respectively. The total international cod landings of the Baltic amounted to 101 500 t. In comparison with 1997 (total landings 129 600 t) the landing decreased by 23 %. The percentage utilization of the cod TAC (1998: 140 000 t) amounted to 74 % in 1998

Oxidative Stress Resulting From Helicobacter pylori Infection Contributes to Gastric Carcinogenesis.

Helicobacter pylori is a gram-negative, microaerophilic bacterium that infects the stomach and can lead to, among other disorders, the development of gastric cancer. The inability of the host to clear the infection results in a chronic inflammatory state with continued oxidative stress within the tissue. Reactive oxygen species and reactive nitrogen species produced by the immune and epithelial cells damage the host cells and can result in DNA damage. H pylori has evolved to evoke this damaging response while blunting the host's efforts to kill the bacteria. This long-lasting state with inflammation and oxidative stress can result in gastric carcinogenesis. Continued efforts to better understand the bacterium and the host response will serve to prevent or provide improved early diagnosis and treatment of gastric cancer