Accounting for expert performance: the devil is in the details

The deliberate practice view has generated a great deal of scientific and popular interest in expert performance. At the same time, empirical evidence now indicates that deliberate practice, while certainly important, is not as important as Ericsson and colleagues have argued it is. In particular, we (Hambrick, Oswald, Altmann, Meinz, Gobet, & Campitelli, 2014) found that individual differences in accumulated amount of deliberate practice accounted for about one-third of the reliable variance in performance in chess and music, leaving the majority of the reliable variance unexplained and potentially explainable by other factors. Ericsson's (2014) defense of the deliberate practice view, though vigorous, is undercut by contradictions, oversights, and errors in his arguments and criticisms, several of which we describe here. We reiterate that the task now is to develop and rigorously test falsifiable theories of expert performance that take into account as many potentially relevant constructs as possible

Edge-Based Compartmental Modeling for Infectious Disease Spread Part III: Disease and Population Structure

We consider the edge-based compartmental models for infectious disease spread introduced in Part I. These models allow us to consider standard SIR diseases spreading in random populations. In this paper we show how to handle deviations of the disease or population from the simplistic assumptions of Part I. We allow the population to have structure due to effects such as demographic detail or multiple types of risk behavior the disease to have more complicated natural history. We introduce these modifications in the static network context, though it is straightforward to incorporate them into dynamic networks. We also consider serosorting, which requires using the dynamic network models. The basic methods we use to derive these generalizations are widely applicable, and so it is straightforward to introduce many other generalizations not considered here

Extended Cognition Hypothesis Applied to Computational Thinking in Computer Science Education

Computational thinking is a much-used concept in computer science education. Here we examine the concept from the viewpoint of the extended cognition hypothesis. The analysis reveals that the extent of the concept is limited by its strong historical roots in computer science and software engineering. According to the extended cognition hypothesis, there is no meaningful distinction between human cognitive functions and the technology. This standpoint promotes a broader interpretation of the human-technology interaction. Human cognitive processes spontaneously adapt available technology enhanced skills when technology is used in cognitively relevant levels and modalities. A new concept technology synchronized thinking is presented to denote this conclusion. More diverse and practical approach is suggested for the computer scienceeducation.Peer reviewe

Differential limit on the extremely-high-energy cosmic neutrino flux in the presence of astrophysical background from nine years of IceCube data

We report a quasi-differential upper limit on the extremely-high-energy (EHE) neutrino flux above $5\times 10^{6}$ GeV based on an analysis of nine years of IceCube data. The astrophysical neutrino flux measured by IceCube extends to PeV energies, and it is a background flux when searching for an independent signal flux at higher energies, such as the cosmogenic neutrino signal. We have developed a new method to place robust limits on the EHE neutrino flux in the presence of an astrophysical background, whose spectrum has yet to be understood with high precision at PeV energies. A distinct event with a deposited energy above $10^{6}$ GeV was found in the new two-year sample, in addition to the one event previously found in the seven-year EHE neutrino search. These two events represent a neutrino flux that is incompatible with predictions for a cosmogenic neutrino flux and are considered to be an astrophysical background in the current study. The obtained limit is the most stringent to date in the energy range between $5 \times 10^{6}$ and $5 \times 10^{10}$ GeV. This result constrains neutrino models predicting a three-flavor neutrino flux of $E_\nu^2\phi_{\nu_e+\nu_\mu+\nu_\tau}\simeq2\times 10^{-8}\ {\rm GeV}/{\rm cm}^2\ \sec\ {\rm sr}$at$10^9\ {\rm GeV}$. A significant part of the parameter-space for EHE neutrino production scenarios assuming a proton-dominated composition of ultra-high-energy cosmic rays is excluded.Comment: The version accepted for publication in Physical Review

Real-time adaptive estimation of decoherence timescales for a single qubit

Characterizing the time over which quantum coherence survives is critical for any implementation of quantum bits, memories, and sensors. The usual method for determining a quantum system’s decoherence rate involves a suite of experiments probing the entire expected range of this parameter, and extracting the resulting estimation in postprocessing. Here we present an adaptive multiparameter Bayesian approach, based on a simple analytical update rule, to estimate the key decoherence timescales (T1, T ∗2, and T2) and the corresponding decay exponent of a quantum system in real time, using information gained in preceding experiments. This approach reduces the time required to reach a given uncertainty by a factor up to an order of magnitude, depending on the specific experiment, compared to the standard protocol of curve fitting. A further speedup of a factor approximately 2 can be realized by performing our optimization with respect to sensitivity as opposed to varianc

Event-based modelling in temporal lobe epilepsy demonstrates progressive atrophy from cross-sectional data

OBJECTIVE: Recent work has shown that people with common epilepsies have characteristic patterns of cortical thinning, and that these changes may be progressive over time. Leveraging a large multi-centre cross-sectional cohort, we investigated whether regional morphometric changes occur in a sequential manner, and whether these changes in people with mesial temporal lobe epilepsy and hippocampal sclerosis (MTLE-HS) correlate with clinical features. METHODS: We extracted regional measures of cortical thickness, surface area and subcortical brain volumes from T1-weighted (T1W) MRI scans collected by the ENIGMA-Epilepsy consortium, comprising 804 people with MTLE-HS and 1,625 healthy controls from 25 centres. Features with a moderate case-control effect size (Cohen's d≥0.5) were used to train an Event-Based Model (EBM), which estimates a sequence of disease-specific biomarker changes from cross-sectional data and assigns a biomarker-based fine-grained disease stage to individual patients. We tested for associations between EBM disease stage and duration of epilepsy, age of onset and anti-seizure medicine (ASM) resistance. RESULTS: In MTLE-HS, decrease in ipsilateral hippocampal volume along with increased asymmetry in hippocampal volume was followed by reduced thickness in neocortical regions, reduction in ipsilateral thalamus volume and, finally, increase in ipsilateral lateral ventricle volume. EBM stage was correlated to duration of illness (Spearman's ρ=0.293, p=7.03x10-16 ), age of onset (ρ=-0.18, p=9.82x10-7 ) and ASM resistance (AUC=0.59, p=0.043, Mann-Whitney U test). However, associations were driven by cases assigned to EBM stage zero, which represents MTLE-HS with mild or non-detectable abnormality on T1W MRI. SIGNIFICANCE: From cross-sectional MRI, we reconstructed a disease progression model that highlights a sequence of MRI changes that aligns with previous longitudinal studies. This model could be used to stage MTLE-HS subjects in other cohorts and help establish connections between imaging-based progression staging and clinical features

The Changing Landscape for Stroke\ua0Prevention in AF: Findings From the GLORIA-AF Registry Phase 2

Background GLORIA-AF (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients with Atrial Fibrillation) is a prospective, global registry program describing antithrombotic treatment patterns in patients with newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation at risk of stroke. Phase 2 began when dabigatran, the first non\u2013vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulant (NOAC), became available. Objectives This study sought to describe phase 2 baseline data and compare these with the pre-NOAC era collected during phase 1. Methods During phase 2, 15,641 consenting patients were enrolled (November 2011 to December 2014); 15,092 were eligible. This pre-specified cross-sectional analysis describes eligible patients\u2019 baseline characteristics. Atrial fibrillation disease characteristics, medical outcomes, and concomitant diseases and medications were collected. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics. Results Of the total patients, 45.5% were female; median age was 71 (interquartile range: 64, 78) years. Patients were from Europe (47.1%), North America (22.5%), Asia (20.3%), Latin America (6.0%), and the Middle East/Africa (4.0%). Most had high stroke risk (CHA2DS2-VASc [Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age  6575 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke, Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex category] score  652; 86.1%); 13.9% had moderate risk (CHA2DS2-VASc = 1). Overall, 79.9% received oral anticoagulants, of whom 47.6% received NOAC and 32.3% vitamin K antagonists (VKA); 12.1% received antiplatelet agents; 7.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. For comparison, the proportion of phase 1 patients (of N = 1,063 all eligible) prescribed VKA was 32.8%, acetylsalicylic acid 41.7%, and no therapy 20.2%. In Europe in phase 2, treatment with NOAC was more common than VKA (52.3% and 37.8%, respectively); 6.0% of patients received antiplatelet treatment; and 3.8% received no antithrombotic treatment. In North America, 52.1%, 26.2%, and 14.0% of patients received NOAC, VKA, and antiplatelet drugs, respectively; 7.5% received no antithrombotic treatment. NOAC use was less common in Asia (27.7%), where 27.5% of patients received VKA, 25.0% antiplatelet drugs, and 19.8% no antithrombotic treatment. Conclusions The baseline data from GLORIA-AF phase 2 demonstrate that in newly diagnosed nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients, NOAC have been highly adopted into practice, becoming more frequently prescribed than VKA in Europe and North America. Worldwide, however, a large proportion of patients remain undertreated, particularly in Asia and North America. (Global Registry on Long-Term Oral Antithrombotic Treatment in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation [GLORIA-AF]; NCT01468701