Import competition and household debt

We analyze the effect of import competition on household balance sheets using individual data on consumer finances. We exploit variation in local industry exposure to foreign competition to study households' response to the income shock triggered by China's accession to the World Trade Organization. We show that household debt increases significantly in regions where manufacturing industries are more exposed to import competition. The effects are driven by home equity extraction and are concentrated in areas with strong house price growth. Our results highlight the role played by mortgage markets in absorbing displacement shocks triggered by globalization

The globalization risk premium

We investigate how globalization is reflected in asset prices. We use shipping costs to measure firms’ exposure to globalization. Firms in low shipping cost industries carry a 7 percent risk premium, suggesting that their cash-flows co-vary negatively with investors’ marginal utility. We find that the premium emanates from the risk of displacement of least efficient firms triggered by import competition. These findings suggest that foreign productivity shocks are associated with times when consumption is dear for investors. We discuss conditions under which a standard model of trade with asset prices can rationalize this puzzle