Profit Patterns Across American Agriculture

To remain viable, agriculture in each location must offer returns that are competitive with those from alternative investments and sufficient to cover producers' financial obligations. Economic theory says that rates of return converge over time as resources flow into more-profitable industries and out of less-profitable industries, causing factor price changes. Both traditional growth and trade theories say factor markets will adjust to equalize commodity returns over time. This study examines spatial relationships in agriculture's profitability over time. Results show temporal and spatial convergence of returns consistent with trade and development theories. However, there are profit patterns unique to state/regional agriculture, raising policy implications.convergence, return on assets, "risk of ruin", Agribusiness,

RATES OF RETURN IN THE FARM AND NON-FARM SECTORS: A TIME SERIES COMPARISON

Financial Economics,

THE MEASUREMENT OF INEQUALITY IN CANADIAN AND U.S. AGRICULTURAL INCOME BY COMPONENTS OF NET VALUE ADDED

This paper examines changes in net value added generated through Canadian and U.S. farm production, 1970-2000. We consider how the structural changes in Canadian and U.S. agriculture have affected the size and distribution of net value added and its components: rent, capital, labor, and to net farm income. We use the Theil Measure of Inequality (TMI) to compare and explain changes in 1) the between and within-region distribution of net value added, and 2) changes in the distribution of factor shares of net value added in Canada and in the U.S. Results show that in Canada (1960-2000), net value added has become somewhat more equally distributed relative to the number of farms per province, but has varied widely from 1972-1988. Between-region inequality in net value added accounted for from 0.5 to 85.5 percent of this inequality from 1960-2000. In the U.S. (1949-2000), net value added has become more unequally distributed. About half of the variation in net value added in the U.S. is due to between-region variation and about half to within-region variation in net value added. We find that most of the variation in the components of net value added (returns to capital, labor, nonoperator landlords, and to farm operators) in Canada and the United States is due to variations across regions, rather than to variations in the components of net value added themselves. These variations have generally been due to macroeconomic differences in regions, such as shifts in enterprise specialization, urbanization, changes in government programs, and to other structural changes in agriculture.Agricultural Finance,

NEXT YEAR ON THE U.S. FARMLAND MARKET: AN INFORMATIONAL APPROACH

This paper formulates an information measure for changes in asset values and applies the formulation to farmland values in the United States for 1960-99. The results indicate that changes in asset values contained significant information following the Russian wheat sale in the early 1970s and the financial crisis in agriculture in the mid 1980s. Further, information about preceding year's asset value largely explains the regional distribution of current year's farmland values.Land Economics/Use,

Hypersonic test facility Patent

Hypersonic test facility for studying ablation in models under high pressure and high temperatur

Agricultural Profits and Farm Household Wealth: A Farm-level Analysis Using Repeated Cross Sections

This study examines the relationship between agricultural profits and farm household wealth across locations and farm sizes in U.S. agriculture. A multiperiod household model is used to develop hypotheses for testing. Results indicate that farmland has out-performed nonfarm investments over the past decade. Thus, households may want to keep their farmland to build wealth, even if it requires them to earn off-farm income. The analysis implies that decision will be made based on farm household wealth factors having little to do with agriculture.farm household, off-farm income, production profits, wealth, Agribusiness, Demand and Price Analysis, Farm Management, Risk and Uncertainty, Q12, Q14,

Off-farm Income and Investments in Farm Assets: A Double Hurdle Approach

The farm household structure is a complex set of inter-relationships between and among a variety of internal and external factors involving consumption, investment, and income-earning activities. In this paper we use ARMS data to explore the contribution of off-farm income to the viability of the farm business. We focus on the link between off-farm income and farm investment and whether off-farm income drives on-farm investment. The results indicate the importance of farm characteristics such as type, size, and location on the probability of investment but lead us to reject the hypothesis that off farm income is driving farm investment. Further research will be needed to further unweave some of the complex relationships involved in the farm household structure. Keywords: Farm investments, off-farm income, double hurdleOff-farm income, farm investment, double hurdle, Agricultural Finance, Financial Economics, D1, J2, Q12,

REGIONAL CHANGES IN THE DISTRIBUTION OF NET VALUE ADDED IN U.S. AGRICULTURE, 1960-2002

This paper examines the effects of structural changes on the distribution of net value added and the difference between net value added and agricultural income over time. We present and discuss the changes in the distribution of net value added (land, labor, capital, and farm operator income) over time. Net value added by U.S. agriculture grew significantly from $18 billion to 1960 to$95 billion in 1996. We examine regional differences in net value added using the Theil entropy measure. The inequality (dispersion) of net value added increased over time. The increased inequality represented both increases in regional dispersion in net value added and increases in the average inequality in net value added in each region. Thus, the net value added is becoming less alike across the U.S. We also examined the inequality in the components of net value added. The greatest dispersion occurred in returns to land followed by returns to capital. Therefore, changes in the dispersion of net value added by agriculture are explained by differences in the payments to non-operator landlords and to capital.Agricultural Finance,

A TRANSLOG COST FUNCTION ANALYSIS OF U.S. AGRICULTURE: A DYNAMIC SPECIFICATION

This study has used an empirical approach developed by Urga and Walters (2003) to examine the implications of the short-run specification of the standard translog cost specification along with the possible implications of non-stationarity. We have estimated a dynamic translog cost specification complete with dynamic share equations for U.S. agriculture and compared it to the static, long-run specification. We found that the dynamic translog specification yielded more significant parameter estimates, and yielded results that are consistent with economic theory. In particular, the coefficient m (the adjustment cost parameter) determines the overall autoregressive structure of the model. The fact that its estimated value (0.36) is statistically different from zero at any conventional level of confidence indicates that the dynamic structure of the model is important. This finding illustrates the superiority of the short-run, dynamic specification over the static, long-run model.Agribusiness,

Assessment of cockpit interface concepts for data link retrofit

The problem is examined of retrofitting older generation aircraft with data link capability. The approach taken analyzes requirements for the cockpit interface, based on review of prior research and opinions obtained from subject matter experts. With this background, essential functions and constraints for a retrofit installation are defined. After an assessment of the technology available to meet the functions and constraints, candidate design concepts are developed. The most promising design concept is described in detail. Finally, needs for further research and development are identified