Toward a Modern Macroeconomic Model Usable for Policy Analysis

This paper presents a macroeconomic model that is both a completely specified dynamic general equilibrium model and a probabilistic model for time series data. We view the model as a potential competitor to existing ISLM-based models that continue to be used for actual policy analysis. Our approach is also an alternative to recent efforts to calibrate real business cycle models. In contrast to these existing models, the one we present embodies all the following important characteristics: i) It generates a complete multivariate stochastic process model for the data it aims to explain, and the full specification is used in the maximum likelihood estimation of the model; ii) It integrates modeling of nominal variables -- money stock, price level, wage level, and nominal interest rate -- with modeling real variables; iii) It contains a Keynesian investment function, breaking the tight relationship of the return on investment with the capital-output ratio; iv) It treats both monetary and fiscal policy explicitly; v) It is based on dynamic optimizing behavior of the private agents in the model. Flexible-price and sticky-price versions of the model are estimated and their fits are evaluated relative to a naive model of no-change in the variables and to an unrestricted VAR. The paper displays the model's implications for the dynamic responses to structural shocks, including policy shocks, and evaluates the relative importance of various shocks for determining economic fluctuations.

Information Security In The Age Of Cloud Computing

Information security has been a particularly hot topic since the enhanced internal control requirements of Sarbanes-Oxley (SOX) were introduced in 2002. At about this same time, cloud computing started its explosive growth. Outsourcing of mission-critical functions has always been a gamble for managers, but the advantages of cloud computing are too tempting to ignore. However, the move to cloud computing could prove very costly for a business if the implementation were to fail. When making the decision to outsource critical functions, managers look to accountants to provide assurance that their data and transactions will be secure and that emergency procedures will be in-place and work as designed, to protect the business from any potential losses due to unforeseen events. Statement on Auditing Standards (SAS) 70 has provided guidance to auditors of third-party service organizations since 1992, but was replaced in April 2010 by Statement on Standards for Attestation Engagements (SSAE) 16. And yet, data breaches continue to occur, costing billions of dollars annually. This research used data from the Privacy Rights Clearinghouse (PRC) database and, through frequency analysis, Chi-square and cluster analysis techniques, found statistically significant differences in the frequency of breaches experienced by various types of consumer organizations based on breach and organization type. This result will be useful to auditors. The research also conducted a survey of 67,749 IT manager/directors. The responses to this survey were to be analyzed using binary logistic regressions and Chi-square tests. Unfortunately, due to severe limitations in the response rate and further complicated by the number of incomplete responses, no inferences can be drawn regarding factors relevant to decision-makers when contemplating the movement of critical business functions into the cloud environment

What Does Monetary Policy Do?

macroeconomics, monetary policy

The Panic

This is the story of my anxiety disorder. It is a story of when it first came to the surface as well as an exploration of how it may have originated. The story chronicles multiple years in my life but finishes in the year 2014

Confidence and the Transmission of Government Spending Shocks

There seems to be a widespread belief among economists, policy-makers, and members of the media that the "confidence'" of households and businesses is a critical component in the transmission of fiscal policy shocks into economic activity. We take this proposition to the data using standard structural VARs with government spending and aggregate output augmented to include empirical measures of consumer or business confidence. We also estimate non-linear VAR specifications to allow for differential impacts of government spending in "normal'' times versus recessions. In normal times confidence does not react significantly to unexpected increases in government spending and spending multipliers are in the neighborhood of one; during recessions confidence rises and spending multipliers are significantly larger. We then quantify the importance of the systematic response of confidence to spending shocks for the spending multiplier and find that, in normal times, confidence is irrelevant for the transmission of government spending shocks to output, but during periods of economic slack it is important. We argue and present evidence that it is not confidence per se – in the sense of pure sentiment – that matters for the transmission of spending shocks during downturns, but rather that the composition of spending during a downtown is different. In particular, spending shocks during downturns predict future productivity improvements through a persistent increase in government investment relative to consumption, which is in turn reflected in higher measured confidence.

Programmable Ultra Lightweight System Adaptable Radio (PULSAR) Low Cost Telemetry - Access from Space Advanced Technologies or Down the Middle

Software Defined Radio (SDR) technology has been proven in the commercial sector since the early 1990's. Today's rapid advancement in mobile telephone reliability and power management capabilities exemplifies the effectiveness of the SDR technology for the modern communications market. In contrast, presently qualified satellite transponder applications were developed during the early 1960's space program. Programmable Ultra Lightweight System Adaptable Radio (PULSAR, NASA-MSFC SDR) technology revolutionizes satellite transponder technology by increasing data through-put capability by, at least, an order of magnitude. PULSAR leverages existing Marshall Space Flight Center SDR designs and commercially enhanced capabilities to provide a path to a radiation tolerant SDR transponder. These innovations will (1) reduce the cost of NASA Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Deep Space transponders, (2) decrease power requirements, and (3) a commensurate volume reduction. Also, PULSAR increases flexibility to implement multiple transponder types by utilizing the same hardware with altered logic - no analog hardware change is required - all of which can be accomplished in orbit. This provides high capability, low cost, transponders to programs of all sizes. The final project outcome would be the introduction of a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) 7 low-cost CubeSat to SmallSat telemetry system into the NASA Portfolio

Tracking weekly state-level economic conditions

En este documento se propone una base de datos constituida por índices de condiciones económicas semanales para los 50 estados de Estados Unidos, que se remonta a 1987. Los índices propuestos se obtienen mediante modelos de factores dinámicos de frecuencia mixta con variables semanales, mensuales y trimestrales que cubren múltiples dimensiones de las economías estatales. Se muestra que existe una considerable heterogeneidad en la duración, profundidad y sincronización de los ciclos económicos en los distintos estados. Se evalúa el papel de los estados en el desarrollo de las recesiones nacionales y se propone un indicador de agregación que permite medir la debilidad general de la economía estadounidense. Asimismo, se ilustra la utilidad de los índices propuestos para cuantificar las principales fuerzas que han contribuido al colapso económico causado por la pandemia de COVID-19 y para evaluar la efectividad de políticas económicas federales, como el Programa de Protección de Cheques de Pago.In this paper, we develop a novel dataset of weekly economic conditions indices for the 50 U.S. states going back to 1987 based on mixed-frequency dynamic factor models with weekly, monthly, and quarterly variables that cover multiple dimensions of state economies. We show that there is considerable heterogeneity in the length, depth, and timing of business cycles across individual states. We assess the role of states in national recessions and propose an aggregate indicator that allows us to gauge the overall weakness of the U.S. economy. We also illustrate the usefulness of these state-level indices for quantifying the main forces contributing to the economic collapse caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and for evaluating the effectiveness of federal economic policies like the Paycheck Protection Program

Information, Animal Spirits, and the Meaning of Innovations in Consumer Confidence

Innovations to measures of consumer confidence convey incremental information about economic activity far into the future. Comparing the shapes of impulse responses to confidence innovations in the data with the predictions of a calibrated New Keynesian model, we find little evidence of a strong causal channel from autonomous movements in sentiment to economic outcomes (the "animal spirits" interpretation). Rather, these impulse responses support an alternative hypothesis that the surprise movements in confidence reflect information about future economic prospects (the "information" view). Confidence innovations are best characterized as noisy measures of changes in expected productivity growth over a relatively long horizon.