The Stability and Growth Pact Time to Rebuild!

Within this paper we specify a symmetric two country model for the euro area to evaluate monetary and fiscal policy interaction with decentralized fiscal authorities. Obviously this calls for rules which neatly balance the chances and perils. Thereby we show that stringent rules are a prequisitive for a harmonious functioning of a monetary union. Nevertheless given the ability of fiscal policy to effectively stabilize the economic cycle we show that the current rules in reign are of little use. We close the paper by making some suggestions along which the Stability and Growth Pact might be reformed. --Economic and Monetary Union,Fiscal Policy,Fiscal Rules,Stability and Growth Pact

The debt brake: business cycle and welfare consequences of Germany's new fiscal policy rule

In a New Keynesian DSGE model with non-Ricardian consumers, we show that automatic stabilization according to a countercyclical spending rule following the idea of the debt brake is well suited both to steer the economy and in terms of welfare. In particular, the adjustment account set up to record public deficits and surpluses serves well to keep the level of government debt stable. However, it is essential to design its feedback to government spending correctly, where discretionary lapses should be corrected faster than lapses due to estimation errors. --Fiscal policy,debt brake,welfare,dsge

The Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson Controversy Revisited in the BMW Framework

This note shows that the Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson controversy battled in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (September/ October 2005) can be mapped into a static version of a New Keynesian macro model that consists of an IS-equation, a Phillips curve and an inflation targeting central bank (e.g., Bofinger, Mayer, Wollmershäuser, (2006); Walsh (2002)). As a contribution to literature we supplement the controversy by a forceful graphical analysis. The general debate centers on the question by which notion monetary policy should be implemented. The two sides have fundametaly opposite views on this issue. Svensson argues for targeting rules as a notion of optimal monetary policy, whereas McCallum and Nelson promote simple instrument rules. In this note we systematically analyze these two categories of monetary policy rules. In particular we show that the rule discussed by McCallum and Nelson (2005) imposes different degrees of variability on the economy compared to a targeting rule when monetary policy falls prey to measurement error. To our opinion the rule developed by McCallum and Nelson contradicts the original idea of simple rules as a heuristic for monetary policy making and should be rebutted for practical reasons . --inflation targeting,monetary policy rules,New Keynesian macroeconomics,central bank strategies

The Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson Controversy Revisited in the BMW Framework

This note shows that the Svensson versus McCallum and Nelson controversy battled in the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Loius Review (September/ October 2005) can be mapped into a static version of a New Keynesian macro model that consists of an IS-equation, a Phillips curve and an inflation targeting central bank (e.g., Bofinger, Mayer, Wollmershäuser, (2006); Walsh (2002)). As a contribution to literature we supplement the controversy by a forceful graphical analysis. The general debate centers on the question by which notion monetary policy should be implemented. The two sides have fundamentally opposite views on this issue. Svensson argues for targeting rules as a notion of optimal monetary policy, whereas McCallum and Nelson promote simple instrument rules. In this note we systematically analyze these two categories of monetary policy rules. In particular we show that the rule discussed by McCallum and Nelson (2005) imposes different degrees of variability on the economy compared to a targeting rule when monetary policy falls prey to measurement error. To our opinion the hybrid Taylor rule developed by McCallum and Nelson contradicts the original idea of simple rules as a heuristic for monetary policy making and should be rebutted for practical reasons

Monetary and fiscal policy interaction in the Euro area with different assumptions on the Phillips curve

In this paper we carry over a static version of a New Keynesian Macro Model developed in previous papers (see Bofinger, Mayer, and Wollmershäuser 2002) to a monetary union. For a similar approach see (Uhlig 2002). We will show in particular that a harmonious functioning of a monetary union critically depends on the correlation of shocks that hit the currency area. Additionally a high degree of integration in product markets is advantageous for the ECB as it prevents that national real interest rates can drive a wedge between macroeconomic outcomes across member states. In particular small countries are in a vulnerable position exposed to asymmetric shocks and therefore in need for fiscal policy as an independent stabilization agent with room to breath. --Monetary policy,inflation targeting,fiscal policy,policy coordination,free-riding

Countercyclical taxation and price dispersion

In this paper, we explore the benefits from a supply-side oriented fiscal tax policy within the framework of a New Keynesian DSGE model. We show that countercyclical tax rules, which are contingent on the observed welfare gap or on the cost-push shock and levied on value added, remarkably reduce the adverse impact of cost-push shocks on welfare. We state that the tax rule establishes a path for the evolution of marginal cost at the firm level that largely prevents built up of price dispersion. We highlight that this tax policy is also effective under a balancedbudget regime. Hence, fiscal policy can disencumber monetary policy in the light of cost-push shocks. --Countercyclical fiscal policy,welfare costs,nominal rigidities

Noisy Information, Interest Rate Shocks and the Great Moderation

In this paper we quantitatively evaluate the hypothesis that the Great Moderation is partly the result of a less activist monetary policy. We simulate a New Keynesian model where the central bank can only observe a noisy estimate of the output gap and fnd that the less pronounced reaction of the Federal Reserve to output gap uctuations since 1979 can account for half of the reduction in the standard deviation of GDP associated with the Great Moderation. Our simulations are consistent with the empirically documented smaller magnitude and impact of interest rate shocks since the early 1980s.Great Moderation, New Keynesian Model, Noisy Data

Countercyclical Taxation and Price Dispersion

In this paper, we explore the benefits from a supply-side oriented fiscal tax policy within the framework of a New Keynesian DSGE model. We show that countercyclical tax rules, which are contingent on the observed welfare gap or alternatively on the markup shock and levied on value added, reduce remarkably the inverse impact of cost push shocks. We state that the tax rule establishes a path for the evolution of marginal cost at the firm level that largely prevents built up of price dispersion. We highlight that this tax policy is also effective under a balancedbudget regime. Hence, fiscal policy can disencumber monetary policy in the light of cost push shocks.Countercyclical fiscal policy, welfare costs, nominal rigidities

The BMW model as a static approximation of a foreward-looking New Keynesian macroeconomic model

Over the last decade a new consensus model has emerged in monetary macroeconomics, labelled New Keynesian macroeconomics (Clarida et al., 1999). It consists of three simple building blocs: a forward-looking IS-equation that is derived from the optimization problem of a representative household, a forward-looking Phillips curve that maps the optimal pricing decisions of monopolistically competitive firms facing restrictions on their ability to adjust wages or prices in a flexible manner, and a relationship that describes how monetary policy is conducted. In Bofinger, Mayer and Wollmershäuser (2002a, 2002b) we developed the BMW model which takes this standard dynamic macro model to an intermediate audience in a down-to-earth fashion. This paper presents the linkages between our static BMW approach and a dynamic New Keynesian macro model. --BMW model,New Keynesian macroeconomic model,optimal monetary policy