Feasibility trade-offs in decarbonising the power sector with high coal dependence: The case of Korea

Decarbonising the power sector requires feasible strategies for the rapid phase-out of fossil fuels and the expansion of low-carbon sources. This study assesses the feasibility of plausible decarbonisation scenarios for the power sector in the Republic of Korea through 2050 and 2060. Our power plant stock accounting model results show that achieving zero emissions from the power sector by the mid-century requires either an ambitious expansion of renewables backed by gas-fired generation equipped with carbon capture and storage or a significant increase of nuclear power. The first strategy implies replicating and maintaining for decades the maximum growth rates of solar power achieved in leading countries and becoming an early and ambitious adopter of the carbon capture and storage technology. The alternative expansion of nuclear power has historical precedents in Korea and other countries but may not be acceptable in the current political and regulatory environment. Hence, our analysis shows that the potential hurdles for decarbonisation in the power sector in Korea are formidable but manageable and should be overcome over the coming years, which gives hope to other similar countries.3

Carbon lock-in through capital stock inertia associated with weak near-term climate policies

Stringent long-term climate targets necessitate a limit on cumulative emissions in this century for which sufficient policy signals are lacking. Using nine energy-economy models, we explore how policies pursued during the next two decades impact long-term transformation pathways towards stringent long-term climate targets. Less stringent near-term policies (i.e., those with larger emissions) consume more of the long-term cumulative emissions budget in the 2010–2030 period, which increases the likelihood of overshooting the budget and the urgency of reducing GHG emissions after 2030. Furthermore, the larger near-term GHG emissions associated with less stringent policies are generated primarily by additional coal-based electricity generation. Therefore, to be successful in meeting the long-term target despite near-term emissions reductions that are weaker than those implied by cost-optimal mitigation pathways, models must prematurely retire significant coal capacity while rapidly ramping up low-carbon technologies between 2030 and 2050 and remove large quantities of CO2 from the atmosphere in the latter half of the century. While increased energy efficiency lowers mitigation costs considerably, even with weak near-term policies, it does not substantially reduce the short-term reliance on coal electricity. However, increased energy efficiency does allow the energy system more flexibility in mitigating emissions and, thus, facilitates the post-2030 transition

Locked into Copenhagen pledges - Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further “lock-in” of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become “a must” by 2030

Trends in passenger transport energy use in South Korea

Having a clear understanding of transport energy use trends is crucial to identifying opportunities and challenges for efficient energy use for the transport sector. To this date, however, no detailed analysis has been conducted with regard to rapidly growing passenger transport energy use in South Korea. Using bottom-up data developed from a variety of recent sources, we described the trends of transport activity, energy use, and CO2 emissions from South Korea's transport sector since 1986 with a particular focus on its passenger transport. By decomposing the trends in passenger transport energy use into activity, modal structure, and energy intensity, we showed that while travel activity has been the major driver of the increase in passenger transport energy use in South Korea, the increase was to some extent offset by the recent favorable structural shift toward bus travel and away from car travel. We also demonstrated that while bus travel has become less energy intensive since the Asian Financial Crisis, car travel has become increasingly energy intensive.Transport energy Passenger travel South Korea

Factors Driving Consumer Involvement in Energy Consumption and Energy-Efficient Purchasing Behavior: Evidence from Korean Residential Buildings

The recent rapid transition in energy markets and technological advances in demand-side interventions has renewed attention on consumer behavior. A rich literature on potential factors affecting residential energy use or green technology adoption has highlighted the need to better understand the fundamental causes of consumer heterogeneity in buildings’ energy-related behavior. Unresolved questions such as which consumers are most likely to opt into demand-side management programs and what factors might explain the wide variation in behavioral responses to such programs make it difficult for policy-makers to develop cost-effective energy efficiency or demand response programs for residential buildings. This study extends the literature on involvement theory and energy-related behavior by proposing a holistic construct of household energy involvement (HEI) to represent consumers’ personal level of interest in energy services. Based on a survey of 5487 Korean households, it finds that HEI has a stronger association with consumer values, such as preferences for indoor thermal comfort and automation, than with socioeconomic or housing characteristics and demonstrates HEI’s potential as a reliable, integrated predictor of both energy consumption and energy-efficient purchases. The study illuminates the multifaceted influences that shape energy-related behavior in residential buildings and offers new tools to help utility regulators identify and profile viable market segments, improve the cost-effectiveness of their programs, and eventually promote urban sustainability

Too Costly to Disregard: The Cost Competitiveness of Environmental Operating Practices

Achieving the dual goal of improved environmental and financial performance has become a universal business concern. Our study distinguishes between firms’ environmental behaviors and their environmental performance, a distinction that has been largely disregarded in previous empirical studies that analyze the association between environmental performance and financial performance. As an improvement in environmental performance itself does not necessarily guarantee positive financial returns, our study pays particular attention to the value-added nature of preemptive environmental activities, investigating the effects of plant-level pollution prevention activities (PPAs) on environmental performance and financial performance in terms of cost competitiveness and market valuation. Drawing on detailed environmental information about 18,743 chemical plants in the U.S. and analyzing a multi-level panel dataset constructed bottom-up from plant-level data to their parent firms’ performance data, we find that more intensive PPAs are associated with both superior environmental performance and improved cost competitiveness but do not necessarily lead to higher market valuation. Our study illuminates the specific environmental activities and conditions linked to environmental and financial performance, thereby offering managers practical guidance in pursuing both sustainable and profitable businesses under increasingly stringent environmental standards

Integrating market and technology uncertainties into the projected cost of power technologies: a case of Korea

Like many countries responding to climate change, Korea also faces an unprecedented transformation of its power sector into a low-carbon system. To evaluate the most advantageous combination of technologies and necessary policies for achieving the goals of such a transformation, this study decomposes the historical development of the total cost of five major power technologies in Korea into three cost components and identifies the underlying driving forces and variabilities of each. We then project the likely distribution of costs in 2030 using Monte-Carlo simulation and simulate the possible impact of climate and environmental policies on the economic landscape of competing technologies. Our results show that the business-as-usual dynamics of key techno-economic-market factors are not likely to secure the economic viability of the proposed energy transition in Korea. Introducing carbon prices or strict environmental policy is imperative in Korea to make renewables and less carbon-intensive gas power remain cost-competitive with coal power