Combating the effects of climatic change on forests by mitigation strategies

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Forests occur across diverse biomes, each of which shows a specific composition of plant communities associated with the particular climate regimes. Predicted future climate change will have impacts on the vulnerability and productivity of forests; in some regions higher temperatures will extend the growing season and thus improve forest productivity, while changed annual precipitation patterns may show disadvantageous effects in areas, where water availability is restricted. While adaptation of forests to predicted future climate scenarios has been intensively studied, less attention was paid to mitigation strategies such as the introduction of tree species well adapted to changing environmental conditions.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>We simulated the development of managed forest ecosystems in Germany for the time period between 2000 and 2100 under different forest management regimes and climate change scenarios. The management regimes reflect different rotation periods, harvesting intensities and species selection for reforestations. The climate change scenarios were taken from the IPCC's Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES). We used the scenarios A1B (rapid and successful economic development) and B1 (high level of environmental and social consciousness combined with a globally coherent approach to a more sustainable development). Our results indicate that the effects of different climate change scenarios on the future productivity and species composition of German forests are minor compared to the effects of forest management.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>The inherent natural adaptive capacity of forest ecosystems to changing environmental conditions is limited by the long life time of trees. Planting of adapted species and forest management will reduce the impact of predicted future climate change on forests.</p

Greenland coastal air temperatures linked to Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea ice conditions during autumn through regional blocking patterns

Variations in sea ice freeze onset and regional sea surface temperatures (SST) in Baffin Bay and Greenland Sea are linked to autumn surface air temperatures (SAT) around coastal Greenland through 500 hPa blocking patterns, 1979-2014. We find strong, statistically significant correlations between Baffin Bay freeze onset and SSTs and SATs across the western and southernmost coastal areas, while weaker and fewer significant correlations are found between eastern SATs, SSTs, and freeze periods observed in the neighboring Greenland Sea. Autumn Greenland Blocking Index (GBI) values and the incidence of meridional circulation patterns have increased over the modern sea ice monitoring era. Increased anticyclonic blocking patterns promote poleward transport of warm air from lower latitudes and local warm air advection onshore from ocean-atmosphere sensible heat exchange through ice-free or thin ice-covered seas bordering the coastal stations. Temperature composites by years of extreme late freeze conditions, occurring since 2006 in Baffin Bay, reveal positive monthly SAT departures that often exceed one standard deviation from the 1981-2010 climate norma

The Churches' Bans on Consanguineous Marriages, Kin-Networks and Democracy

This paper highlights the role of kin-networks for the functioning of modern societies: countries with strong extended families as characterized by a high level of cousin marriages exhibit a weak rule of law and are more likely autocratic. To assess causality, I exploit a quasi-natural experiment. In the early medieval ages the Church started to prohibit kin-marriages. Using the variation in the duration and extent of the Eastern and Western Churches' bans on consanguineous marriages as instrumental variables, reveals highly significant point estimates of the percentage of cousin marriage on an index of democracy. An additional novel instrument, cousin-terms, strengthens this point: the estimates are very similar and do not rest on the European experience alone. Exploiting within country variation of cousin marriages in Italy, as well as within variation of a 'societal marriage pressure' indicator for a larger set of countries support these results. These findings point to a causal effect of marriage patterns on the proper functioning of formal institutions and democracy. The study further suggests that the Churches' marriage rules - by destroying extended kin-groups - led Europe on its special path of institutional and democratic development

Confidence and central tendency in perceptual judgment

Abstract This paper theoretically and empirically investigates the role of noisy cognition in perceptual judgment, focusing on the central tendency effect: the well-known empirical regularity that perceptual judgments are biased towards the center of the stimulus distribution. Based on a formal Bayesian framework, we generate predictions about the relationships between subjective confidence, central tendency, and response variability. Specifically, our model clarifies that lower subjective confidence as a measure of posterior uncertainty about a judgment should predict (i) a lower sensitivity of magnitude estimates to objective stimuli; (ii) a higher sensitivity to the mean of the stimulus distribution; (iii) a stronger central tendency effect at higher stimulus magnitudes; and (iv) higher response variability. To test these predictions, we collect a large-scale experimental data set and additionally re-analyze perceptual judgment data from several previous experiments. Across data sets, subjective confidence is strongly predictive of the central tendency effect and response variability, both correlationally and when we exogenously manipulate the magnitude of sensory noise. Our results are consistent with (but not necessarily uniquely explained by) Bayesian models of confidence and the central tendency

Adherence to quality indicators and best practices in surveillance endoscopy of Barrett’s esophagus: A video-based assessment

Background and study aims: Adherence to quality indicators (QIs) and best practices (BPs) for endoscopic surveillance of Barrett\u27s esophagus (BE) is low based on clinical documentation which is an inaccurate representation of events occurring during procedures. This study aimed to assess adherence to measurable QI and BP using video evaluation. Methods: We performed a single center video-based retrospective review of surveillance endoscopies performed for BE ≥1 cm between March 1, 2018 and October 1, 2020. Adherence to QIs and BPs was assessed through video review and documentation. Videos were evaluated by five gastroenterologists. Interrater variability was determined using 10 videos before reviewing the remaining 128 videos. A generalized linear regression model was used to determine predictors of adherence to QIs and BPs. Results: There were 138 endoscopies reviewed. Inspection with virtual chromoendoscopy (VC) occurred in 75 cases (54%) on video review with documentation in 50 of these cases (67%). Adherence to the Seattle protocol (SP) occurred in 74 cases (54%) on video review with documentation in 28 of these cases (38%). Use of VC or the SP was documented but not observed on video review in 16 (12%) and 30 (22%) cases, respectively. Length of BE was associated with increased use of the Prague classification (odds ratio [OR] 1.21, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.07-1.37) while years in practice was associated with a decreased likelihood of VC use (OR 0.93, 95% CI 0.88-0.99). Conclusions: This study validates prior data demonstrating poor adherence to QIs and BPs and highlights discrepancies between clinical documentation and events occurring during procedures

Cultural criminology: Some notes on the script

Let us start with a question: what is this phenomenon called ‘cultural criminology’? Above all else, it is the placing of crime and its control in the context of culture; that is, viewing both crime and the agencies of control as cultural products—as creative constructs. As such, they must be read in terms of the meanings they carry. Furthermore, cultural criminology seeks to highlight the interaction between these two elements: the relationship and the interaction between constructions upwards and constructions downwards. Its focus is always upon the continuous generation of meaning around interaction; rules created, rules broken, a constant interplay of moral entrepreneurship, moral innovation and transgression

Selective Inhibition of Histone Deacetylases 1/2/6 in Combination with Gemcitabine: A Promising Combination for Pancreatic Cancer Therapy

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a five-year survival rate of &lt;10% due in part to a lack of effective therapies. Pan-histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors have shown preclinical efficacy against PDAC but have failed in the clinic due to toxicity. Selective HDAC inhibitors may reduce toxicity while retaining therapeutic efficacy. However, their use requires identification of the specific HDACs that mediate the therapeutic effects of HDAC inhibitors in PDAC. We determined that the HDAC1/2/3 inhibitor Mocetinostat synergizes with the HDAC4/5/6 inhibitor LMK-235 in a panel of PDAC cell lines. Furthermore, while neither drug alone synergizes with gemcitabine, the combination of Mocetinostat, LMK-235, and gemcitabine showed strong synergy. Using small interfering (si)RNA-mediated knockdown, this synergy was attributed to inhibition of HDACs 1, 2, and 6. Pharmacological inhibition of HDACs 1 and 2 with Romidepsin and HDAC6 with ACY-1215 also potently synergized with gemcitabine in a panel of PDAC cell lines, and this drug combination potentiated the antitumor effects of gemcitabine against PDAC xenografts in vivo. Collectively, our data show that inhibition of multiple HDACs is required for therapeutic effects of HDAC inhibitors and support the development of novel strategies to inhibit HDACs 1, 2, and 6 for PDAC therapy

Selective Inhibition of Histone Deacetylases 1/2/6 in Combination with Gemcitabine: A Promising Combination for Pancreatic Cancer Therapy

Pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC) has a five-year survival rate of \u3c10% due in part to a lack of effective therapies. Pan-histone deacetylase (HDAC) inhibitors have shown preclinical efficacy against PDAC but have failed in the clinic due to toxicity. Selective HDAC inhibitors may reduce toxicity while retaining therapeutic efficacy. However, their use requires identification of the specific HDACs that mediate the therapeutic effects of HDAC inhibitors in PDAC. We determined that the HDAC1/2/3 inhibitor Mocetinostat synergizes with the HDAC4/5/6 inhibitor LMK-235 in a panel of PDAC cell lines. Furthermore, while neither drug alone synergizes with gemcitabine, the combination of Mocetinostat, LMK-235, and gemcitabine showed strong synergy. Using small interfering (si)RNA-mediated knockdown, this synergy was attributed to inhibition of HDACs 1, 2, and 6. Pharmacological inhibition of HDACs 1 and 2 with Romidepsin and HDAC6 with ACY-1215 also potently synergized with gemcitabine in a panel of PDAC cell lines, and this drug combination potentiated the antitumor effects of gemcitabine against PDAC xenografts in vivo. Collectively, our data show that inhibition of multiple HDACs is required for therapeutic effects of HDAC inhibitors and support the development of novel strategies to inhibit HDACs 1, 2, and 6 for PDAC therapy